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  #1  
Old 9th December 2005, 10:44 PM
Svenvlad Svenvlad is offline
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Default Doomben Races Saturday...

Hey all,

Back for another week. Good set of races for this week, especially the Summer Stakes which should be a real highlight.

Race 1 - Thought Falconten might be a good show here. He is a really striking horse by Show A Heart who loomed up to win at the 200m last time but was probably outclassed by Mel. The extra journey and the claim should help. There is a lot of speed here,so hopefully he can sit just off Diamonds Am I and pressure her in the straight. Diamonds Am I was a really good run last time, and the shorter straight of Doomben should really suit her. Consistent with my strategy of avoiding favourites in 2yo races, she's not my top pick (thats not to say she won't win obviously ). Captain Lightning won a trial recently, indicating he could be ready for a first up effort. General Nediym's usually don't take long to come to hand either.

Race 2 - Aim So High could go close here, if they let him free-wheel in the lead. He has shown in the past, to my eye, that he doesn't like being held up between and inside of other horses. Hopefully Mcmahon just lets him roll to the front and he'll take some catching. He was competitive in some of those 3yo town races last year, so this class should not worry. Black Suit will appreciate the class drop and can get home late if the leaders start tiring in the last 100m. The weight shouldn't be a worry, either. Next Size Up is a horse on the rise who can make his presence felt with adequate luck. I did a quick map and had him getting in one off the fence, so hopefully things play out like that. Had fair 3yo form during the carnival, possibly showing the stable opinion of him?

Race 3 - Tough race. Lot of speed here. Maybe Brisbane Lion has a rough chance. He hasn't appeared to run the best races in town, but maybe in the weaker field he can get away with it. Piccohi has the best form in the race from my viewing, but the 10 alley and all the speed in the race put me off slightly. He's class though, and can surely win without surprising. Town Player is a nice chance too, the trainer wouldn't have brought him to town for nothing. The run 2 back is a great pointer for a race like this. Bet on that at your peril though .

Race 4 - Couldn't get excited about this one either. I was under the impression Cold Start had gone over the top after his last run, but now that he is entered here, i don't know. I know the 2400 didn't suit and there was plenty of speed in the race, but he didn't give a yelp at the end. That being said, i'll stick with him (with plenty of reservations) because theres a lack of speed here. Lester Thunderwing is a query, was nom'ed for a stayers race a couple of weeks back, but hasn't been sighted until now. Don't know what to make of that, but his class will carry him a long way here. Thurman needs a dry track, and looks like getting it tomorrow. Not the most reliable mare going around, but she has ability on her day. Could be a value place chance.

Race 5 - Good 3yo fillies race here. Again, plenty of speed so the backmarkers should be their chance. Thought Nova Star was worth one more chance. The last run screamed more ground. She lost touch early on in the straight but then picked up again and finished well. The 1200m should be ideal. The gate is a little worry, but Cahill is quality and should get a good run. La Montagna has a slightly better alley, but will get back abit and should get in. The speed will be great for her and is proven in town. Single Rose gets her city chance here, but has been performing reasonably well at the mid-weeks. Perhaps a nice place chance.

Race 6 - Trap race. Most of the good chances are backmarkers, leaving me wondering where the speed will com from. Penetrator will go forward, and maybe Unite and Prosper and My Chinese King won't be far away. I've done my selections based on a good speed, so i'll sit back and hope . Prend was ultra impressive last time, and the extra 200m looks great. The Doomben straight is the major worry, because she needed all of the Eagle Farm stretch to win last time. Stathi knows what hes doing though, and won't be far off at the end. Decibeel won well last time, i just can't get excited about her at this stage. Mameluke is proven at the track and distance and can win without surprising.

Race 7 - Top race. Thought Proudly Agro was in there with a top chance. He has done nothing wrong of late, and the alley is great. He won't be far off them on turning and the likely pace of the race will suit him down to the ground. Picardi Run will be in great condition for this race, judging by his effort last time. He peaked on his run about 50m out (as was expected from trainer's pre-race comments) so the fitness will be there tomorrow. Very talented horse on his day. Show Biz Kid has a horror draw, but he's still a chance will all the speed that will be on. Won this race last year, edging out Sir Breakfast.

Race 8 - Last race. If Minassi repeats his last run, he'll win. He shouldn't have any trouble getting across from the alley, there is limited speed drawn inside him, and if Seamer can give him a cosy run, i think he'll be too strong. Daunting Lad has a horror draw and i fear he'll be trapped deep, but its a massive class drop and isn't without a chance with some luck. Merkaba is a good rough hope too, his last runs are better than they probably look on paper.

Best tomorrow would be Minassi and Prend with a good rough chance to Aim So High...

Good luck all

Sven

Last edited by Svenvlad : 9th December 2005 at 10:48 PM.
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  #2  
Old 10th December 2005, 12:22 AM
maverick1993 maverick1993 is offline
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Hi Sven...looks a good day tomorrow..can't wait .

Race 1.
I loved Diamonds an I last start...did all the work and just got pipped on the line ..should get the lead again here and be to strong..
i think the best bet of the day but will be to short for me ...unless the whispers are about for something else..sometimes everyone looking for value jumps off the obvious and jumps on the spriuk horse..
Race 2.
looks a race in 2 ...Black Suit and Coincidental...the later won so easily and impressively last start..with Colless on board i really cant see anything beating her..i thought Slick Operator who should lead would give good sight up front...i like these 3 in a tri ..and maybe another exacta ..
Race 3.
I agree with Sven here...this looks a tuff race ...my ratings dont have a standout but the one that rates on top is Crafty King...good win in nice time up the hill at Toowoomba last start...Fond Kiss has had a bit of bad luck of late and the barrier is a worry..I'm banking on Ric riding Fond Kiss alittle more forward this time but the start will be costly for her..
Starlactic can fly,and from the inside should get a good run..
I'll be on Crafty King as this horse is versatile..can be ridden forward or from the back...gives Seamer a few options...
Race 4.
I'll be sticking with Appleby ...just didnt stay the trip in the cup ..better suited here and the speed suits..Cold Start will race better with Managed Fund not engaged but I think Mr Hornblower might try and lead or take the sit off Cold Start and pester him.......Terrace is the class but might be a run short..Appleby for me...but might have something Mr Hornblower as the newcomer that might relish the trip..
RAce 5.
I originally thought Street Smart ...should get the right tempo and will be hard to stop in the last 50m ...but you can't under estimate La Montagna with Colless on board and if your looking for a roughie check out Crackledash whos been running on well of late..
I reckon i'll be on La Montagna as Colless sways it for me..
Race 6.
You have to think the 1600m will suit Decibeel ..won very well last time and with Colless running the show looks a good thing..
Prend has been good to me but i cant see him beating Decibeel ...Mamaluke will run the usual honest race...
really like Decibeel..
Race 7.
How good was MAsterminds run last start...i'm a fan and it looks like i'll be on again although i'm not a fan of Jl Taylor...
TT from the inside is all class..the weight is a problem for me and his last run was awfull..but apparently had excuses..
Proudly Agro should again get the good run...but this is harder..
Mastermind will put himself in with a chance ,,,e/w atleast all day..
Race 8.
I'll be on Kutalo e/w here...will lead or be close up and will be hard to run down..Daunting LAd even with the bad barrier and weight will be the one running on late....

Diamonds and I, Decibeel and Coincidental and Appleby the best ...
not much value around as i think its day for favs,,,,probably be just opposite now..

Good Luck all ..

Other state selections
Sydney
*Cavmac, *Intermoo, *Hipster Doofus
Melbourne
*Shades of Laughter, *Statton Place
Adelaide
*Aerated, *Showdown Kid
Ascot
*Scenic Shot

Last edited by maverick1993 : 10th December 2005 at 12:29 AM.
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  #3  
Old 10th December 2005, 12:03 PM
maverick1993 maverick1993 is offline
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Hi guys,,
forgot to mention Dont Tell Clang..as you know i thought her stride a couple of runs back was awfull,,,i still think she has bad feet and today with the hardish track i think she'll struggle...
i usually do ok potting the hotpots..(Willy lieca last week) ..
and today i think Dont tell clangs one for the Betfair boys..

i could be wrong and she had a twisted plate or something ..but i cant find this in any reports ...and there was an enqiury into her performance..

off to the track ..good luck guys
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  #4  
Old 10th December 2005, 01:17 PM
D105Black D105Black is offline
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Good-day Mav and Sven, I'll be following your Brissie selections today again as I really like the comments for each race you put up.

Thanks for those race analysis guys...
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  #5  
Old 10th December 2005, 01:20 PM
jorgo jorgo is offline
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GO APPLEBY!!!
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  #6  
Old 10th December 2005, 01:27 PM
Silver_and_sand Silver_and_sand is offline
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Thumbs up Good luck with your picks at Doomben today guys!

Here's my 4 best picks for Doomben today:

R2 #4 Coincidental
R3 #5 Babinda Half
R7 #7 Picardi Run
R8 #2 Minassi
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  #7  
Old 10th December 2005, 04:12 PM
bl4dez bl4dez is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by maverick1993
Hi guys,,
forgot to mention Dont Tell Clang..as you know i thought her stride a couple of runs back was awfull,,,i still think she has bad feet and today with the hardish track i think she'll struggle...
i usually do ok potting the hotpots..(Willy lieca last week) ..
and today i think Dont tell clangs one for the Betfair boys..

i could be wrong and she had a twisted plate or something ..but i cant find this in any reports ...and there was an enqiury into her performance..

off to the track ..good luck guys



well well
__________________
? ph34r me ?
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  #8  
Old 10th December 2005, 04:54 PM
Sportz Sportz is offline
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Glad I didn't read that!!!

You've been pretty spot on with most of your other thoughts though, Mav. Well done. I also had Coincidental and Decibeel as my two best bets in Brisbane today. Good when things work out like that.

Last edited by Sportz : 10th December 2005 at 05:15 PM.
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  #9  
Old 10th December 2005, 05:28 PM
Sportz Sportz is offline
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That was the REAL Takeover Target today.
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  #10  
Old 10th December 2005, 05:40 PM
Svenvlad Svenvlad is offline
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too right Sportz, that was incredible.

Time was unbelievable - don't know what the other races have been like time-wise, but when they break 68, look out.

Sven
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