Boy, what a dodgy day tomorrow might be at Flemington.
I'm looking at this one race. Outright Fav. is Forest Spy. Why? I can't see anything in his prize bracket to justify it against some of the runners here [He's no Californian Dane]. I doubt he will place and the odds for him will be atrocious. Of course I'm ready to eat humble pie.

For my money I'll go a win bet on Shinzig and Toulouse Letrec. Hayes and Freedman have the runs on the board at this track.

My money will most likely be on Our Smoking Joe e/w if the odds allow it hard to say with Freedmans horses at the best of times.

A few trainer facts: 285 trainers have had runners at this track this season. 48 have trained a winner. Freedman, Hayes and Danny O'Brien have trained 39 of the 98 winners [40%]. They have 16 runners between them tomorrow.
Freedman and Hayes have dominated and then O'Brian.

I'll be laying a couple tommorow in Forest Spy and Niconero, think they are both highly overrated, they don't look well in at the weights at all and both have terribly hard opposition to beat.

i've always had a bit of time for Zankel.
anyone give him much of a show?
it's not really a very strong race.

I think No. 13 Redadan should be a good eachway bet at such a lightweight.

Has been running well in Adelaide Listed Races and should be at his peak.

Not all that often I find myself in agreement with Greg Miles... I am not ready to declare Forest Spy a sprecial, like he has, but I think it will win... run this at Sandown and I would be jumping on big time... He is runnning around in the same class as his last start win and is carrying much the same weight ( -.5) He has an absolutely spectacular record at the distance 6/8, the one doubt I have is the track, Arnold has ridden him last 3, so no probs there as for a price I don't know that it will be all that short with gunna in the race ( Toulouse Lautrec), it is bound to get lot's of people's cash today.. If Forest Spy is around the 4 - 4.5 that would be a fair price

I like Joe, but he has a huge weight, but the class drop is on his side. He has an ok record at the distance and goes ok after a freshen up..

28/01/2006 4:10 FLEMINGTON 7 3 FOREST SPY 30
28/01/2006 4:10 FLEMINGTON 7 10 SORENSTAM 25
28/01/2006 4:10 FLEMINGTON 7 1 OUR SMOKING JOE 23
28/01/2006 4:10 FLEMINGTON 7 2 GREAT IS GREAT 22

__________________
Good luck and good punting

xptdriver@hotmail.com

XPT,

I also hate when I agree with the gentleman on Sport927.

But I think Forest Spy will be hard to beat. It is also S Arnold's only ride for day, which is surprising.

And the O'Brien / Arnold combination is not too shabby.