Does anyone take quinellas as there is not much chat about them.Went back through search and didn't find what I was looking for, any advice on this topic would be much appreciated and also how to bet them according to ratings Cheers Plug

c'mon

Hi Plugga1976

If you read Roger Dedman's book on practical punting, he shows you mathematically how betting quinellas is one of the best forms of betting you can make value wise, and also with the overlays (the bamboozal factor) available.

I'm not that clever with setting up the right amounts etc with the odds, but I'll make the effort to set up some boxed 4 ($6 for $1 bets or $3 for 50c bets) for Saturday.

Are you into quinellas Plugga1976?

Plugga,
As for all betting you need to find the overlays to make a consistant profit. So in theory you should:
1. Work out the winning chances for each horse that has a "reasonable" chance of winning.
2. Work out the quinella odds for each combination of any two horses you identified in Step 1.
3. Bet on any combinations where the available odds are better than the calculated odds (allowing a reasonable margin for errors and profit!)

As I said this is just my theory - at the moment I am just collected quinella data from the NSW TAB site for each race so that I can test this against a reasonable amount of data.

__________________
"Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson

The problem with quinella's running doubles and the like is that the returns (at least on SUPERTAB) are an unknown quantity. You really don't know what you're going to get - overs or very much unders. I investigated dutch betting on exotics a while back but was beaten by the unknown returns.

Some were extraordinary while others were more than disappointing.
Guess it's a matter of trial and error on races with DECENT exotic pools.

Equine Investor,
NSW TAB gives approximates on Quinellas on their web site and WA TAB (ozbet.com.au) also gives Quinella approximates on Supertab pools BUT the update on WA is a bit behind (eg. pool on Tabcorp site will be showing 10000 but pool on WA tab only showing 7000).

Quinellas are certainly the only exotic bet I would consider placing serious bets on because they are the only one where you can get an idea of the return - other exotics are too uncertain. One Trifecta yesterday payed a few hundred on one TAB and over a thousand on another - the true value was probably about $500 so you either got massive unders or massive overs.

__________________
"Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson

Moonee Valley
R3 1,2,3,7 (10 a danger)
R5 6,9,10,12 yes not Dandy Kid included

Gold Coast
R3 1,2,3,4 $18.60 (unitab)
R6 1,3,7,11
R8 1,4,7,8 $25.00 (unitab)

A long time between drinks but in the end a surplus.

5 sets of quinellas at $6 a pop. Let's see how they run.

Good Luck everyone.

[ This Message was edited by: Fryingpan on 2002-08-17 17:30 ]

[ This Message was edited by: Fryingpan on 2002-08-17 17:32 ]

Becareful how do you work out the overlays when you don't know what your return is going to be and also how do you work out how much you think it will pay. Cheers Plug

Plugga,
As per my previous post NSW TAB do show Quinella approximates on their website so I would do any quinella betting with them. I will post the formula for working out what a quinella should pay later today when I have more time.

__________________
"Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson

Here is the formula for working out the probability (and therefore the correct odds) for a quinella combination:

P1*P2/(1-P1) + P2*P1/(1-P2)

Where P1 = probability of horse 1 winning (expressed as decimal) and P2= probability of horse 2 winning.

The first part is the probability of an exacta for horse1-horse2 and the second is the exacta probability for Horse2-Horse1 - add them together and you get the quinella probability for 1-2.

A couple of examples might help here.

Suppose you have two selections for a race, the first one you assess as a 2-1 chance (ie. 33.3% chance of winning) and the second is a 5-1 shot (ie. $6.00 or 16.67% chance of winning). First we convert the odds to decimal winning chance so P1 (probability of horse 1 winning) is 0.33333 and P2 is 0.16667 If we put these figures in our equation we get:

0.3333*0.1667/(1-0.3333) + 0.1667*0.3333/(1-0.1667)
= 0.15
So the chance of this quinella coming up is 15% which gives a TAB price of 1/0.15=$6.67

So you would bet if the quinella approximate was at least $7.00 (or probably $8 or $9 to allow for price changes and a profit margin)

Now if you don't do your own assessments of winning chances you can use the TAB approximates as a guide (there are generally fairly good if you removed the margin). To do this convert the win approximate to a percentage and then remove the margin. For example if we look at MR6 today the final Tabcorp approximates for the winner (Mistegic) was 3.00 and the second runner (Shaye Spice) was 10.60. Converting these to decimal gives us 0.3333 (1/3) and 0.09434 (1/10.6) but these still have the TAB margin included - we need to multiple each value by 0.85 to remove the margin which gives us 0.2833 and 0.0802 (so in theory Mistegic was given a 28% chance of winning and Shaye Spice an 8% chance). Putting these figures into our formula gives:
0.2833*0.0802/(1-0.2833) + 0.0802*0.2833/(1-0.0802)
=0.0564 or a TAB forecast price of $17.72
So that Quinella option should have paid $17.70 on TAB (If the TAB win estimates were an accurate indication of winning chances). The actual Quinella was $17.60 (Tabcorp), $17.10 (NSW) and $18.50 (Unitab). So the Tabcorp div was almost spot on, NSW was slight unders and Unitab was slight overs.

As always I am happy to try to answer any questions or clarify anything if I have confused you!

_________________
"So certain are you. Always with you it cannot be done. Hear you nothing that I say?" - Yoda

[ This Message was edited by: becareful on 2002-08-17 19:05 ]