Hi all

Is there really a significant difference in win strike rates when market prices are the same but the field size is different.

For example say we are looking at a selection that is between say 1.8 and 2.6 this gives an average of 2.2 and we would ideally like a 50% strike rate to make profit long term.

Does the selection that fits this parameter fare better in a 8 field vs a field of 14 say.

Cheers
ubetido

__________________
Life should NOT be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in an attractive and well preserved body,but rather to skid in sideways, BEER in one hand- PIZZA in the other, body thoroughly used up, totally worn out and screaming WOO HOO!

Ubetido

If you believe as I do that the market price is the best indicator of a runners chance then the answer to your question is no. In my view your 2.2 runner has the same chance of winning in a four horse field as it does in a twenty-four horse field. You'll get some variation due to problems faced in larger fields, but over time I think any variation will even out.

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Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

I differ slightly from this opinion.
From my research, if the price does not blow out with increase in field size, then the chance of the horse winning increases.
So if you have a $1.90 chance in a field of 7, that same priced horse in a field of 24 has a greatly increased chance.

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Yes I had my infinite number of races hat on. There's probably not been enough races run to know one way or the other. I'll not aware of an empirical study, but I'll see if I can find one.

Having said that though I do on the occasion bring field size into the equation.

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Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Hi

Thanks for the replies yes i find it interesting. I am looking at relating this purely to an odds range irrespective of race code etc.

For example it is not unusual at the greyhounds or trots to have a price on a selection of say 2.50 but it is racing on the second line of betting as it is against a 1.40 fav. So is it the field size or position in the market?

Cheers
ubetido

__________________
Life should NOT be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in an attractive and well preserved body,but rather to skid in sideways, BEER in one hand- PIZZA in the other, body thoroughly used up, totally worn out and screaming WOO HOO!