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10th April 2007, 01:08 PM

Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline

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Interesting email

I received an email from a tipster the other day and thought it appropriate to make comment on the contents as I can prove the hypothesis within incorrect...

Quote:

Email 1 - Beware of Steamers and Drifters

----------------------------------------------

There is an old saying in horse racing and that is
"you must follow the money"! Punters do this in
a variety of different ways and most of them are
un-successful. One of the most common examples
of punters blindly following the money is in the
form of "Steamers". A steamer is a horse that
has dramatically shortened in price and looks
likely to continue to do so.

A horses price can tumble for a wide variety of
reasons but one of the most common is that
someone has heard a rumour or the market
as a whole is over reacting to an isolated piece
of information. This can either be something
that they have read or more likely what they
have heard on television. Another reason for
this can be found by someone placing a substantial
size bet on course in a weak market.

If a punter placed a £1000 on a horse during the
Cheltenham festival, this bet when compared to
all of the other action at a meeting like that would
hardly have any effect on the price at all. Change
the venue to an evening meeting at Southwell and
the resulting effect on this much weaker market
would be vastly different. Yet it is amazing just
how many punters tend to jump on the bandwagon
and back the horse at the now vastly deflated new
price thinking that they have identified a cert.

The figures tell a different story.
Steamers win far more races than drifters.
While it is correct that you can lose money by not getting the best odds available on a steamer, this is also true with any horse. Continuing to bet into high percentage markets, means poor value, whether the horse steams or drifts. Betting into low percentage markets, means better value.

It is also true that there are various reasons why a horse's price can tumble in the market, but overall the price tumble reflects statistically to be a very good indicator of it's chances.

Did anyone observe the price tumble yesterday from $51.00 to $3.00 something????

Even in smaller markets, the same is true, providing that movement is reflected generally throughout various betting establishments.
I have followed the money on South Africa's race meets, where there is quite small liquidity, with a fair bit of accuracy and success.

Quote:

Nobody ever gets rich by jumping on a bandwagon,
the place to be is to be the person who sets the
bandwagon in motion in the first place. If you are
one of the punters who have joined this "gamble"
at the last possible moment then you are definitely
taking the worst of it in terms of price. Whatever
value was there has now gone and you are basically
left with a sucker bet.

There is a kind of "herd" mentality amongst punters
and this can certainly be put to good use as and
when the time arrives. Punters and people in
general for that matter would much rather go
with the flow and be wrong in large numbers than
have the courage to go against the flow and do
something different knowing that if they are wrong
then they will appear foolish all on their own.

If I saw a horse tumbling in price all the way
down to a level that was ridiculously low compared
to what it had been a minute or two earlier then
I would be looking to do the exact opposite and
lay the thing. There is momentum in all markets
and it is this momentum that can mean that the
price tumbles way below it 's theoretically
correct price before it starts to correct itself.
It works in the same way as a car that takes
a certain distance for it to stop once you have
applied the brakes. So if you want to profit
on the exchanges then it definitely pays to
go against the herd.

Of course there is a clear advantage to be at the top of the movement, but there is also very little likelihood of that happening, unless punters have some inside knowledge.
The only sucker bet is the poor value bet.
A horse can be value even though it's price has shortened, a horse can be very poor value even though it's price is long.
Going against the herd is not recommended, unless you have better information, or a handicapping technique which identifies different horses successfully.
The writer should have concentrated on the importance of getting the best return on investment from steamers, rather than avoiding them altogether.

By avoiding them, he is suggesting you shoot the goose that lays the golden eggs!!!

The proof....

I have layed 80 drifters in the last three racing days for a profit of 14.67 units
I have backed 82 steamers in the last three days for a profit of 37.15 units

Had I backed the drifters instead of laying them I would have outlaid 80 units for a return of $64.33 - a loss of 15.67 units.

Had I layed the steamers, I would have lost close to 36 units.

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Last edited by Chrome Prince : 10th April 2007 at 01:15 PM.

10th April 2007, 03:00 PM

YoungBuck

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Quote:

Did anyone observe the price tumble yesterday from $51.00 to $3.00 something????

I noticed that yesterday, i think it was Dawn something, the first at Eagle farm. IAS opened it at 51.00 and it had come in to 6.00. I got on through betfair at 9.90, and it did come in further to around 3.00. I did OK out of it but somebody must have made a killing.

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10th April 2007, 04:07 PM

wesmip1

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Posts: 1,601

CP,

Good post. I would be interested to see the longer term results as I believe you are correct in your hypothesis.

Good Luck.

10th April 2007, 05:58 PM

Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline

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wesmip1,

The longer terms figures are extremely similar, I only picked the last three days as I had the spreadsheet open for the days betting.
Of course, if you get the worst price about any of them (TAB), then you struggle.

10th April 2007, 06:34 PM

crash

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Interesting stuff. Has anyone got any verifiable actual figures, or is the 'proof' here personal opinion or hearsay? I have read that 'actually, more drifters than shortener's win more races' [I have no proof either].

10th April 2007, 06:34 PM

Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline

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It isn't going to pan out every time though, like today I lost 5.56 units, however, the trend is there and for every day like today, there are two more very positive days. I think it's probably a case of some punters having a bad day and abandoning it. The figures over the last 56,000 races are showing in excess of 20% POT.

10th April 2007, 06:41 PM

Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline

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crash, we must have posted at the exact same moment as I didn't see your reply, sorry.

More shorteners win more races than drifters by more than twice as much.

I have gone through 56,000 instances on all tracks, however, the bigger pools have more accurate a reflection and impact.
Over those 56,000 races backing the shorteners on Betfair and laying the drifters, has returned more than 20% POT at Betfair prices.
I've been doing a revised method of it this year only, with slightly better returns.
For example, my maximum lay price is $5.00 and no more.

EDITED: I mean the bookie shorteners, and backing them or laying them on Betfair, not necessarily Betfair shorteners.

10th April 2007, 06:49 PM

AngryPixie AngryPixie is offline

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Quote:

Originally Posted by crash

Wouldn't it hold that a shortener (by definition) win's more races than a drifter i.e. in many cases it probably starts at shorter odds

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10th April 2007, 07:31 PM

crash

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No it wouldn't mean that at all or odds-on favorites would have a better SR than 50% [explain that one], which they don't. I'm yet to see verifiable [TAB] figures that prove one or the other about drifters or shortener's.

Personally I hold no opinion either way as like I've said, we are dealing with hearsay, not checkable and viewable facts.

Last edited by crash : 10th April 2007 at 07:36 PM.

#10

10th April 2007, 07:47 PM

Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline

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Crash, the TAB figures really don't mean much, because the market movements come from correction or late "flurry" rather than informed judgement, the other problem is that you don't know until the pool closes.

The facts are checkable, if you wish to put in the time.

It makes me wonder why people will believe drifters win, yet need proof of firmers being more dominant. why believe one fact without proof, yet need proof for another.

Anyone wanting to do the exercise will find the same as I found, I have no reason to post innaccurate information, as it's all checkable.

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