The get out the darts call when a track is Wet is the biggest Phurphy in racing. Why?

Some horses that "perfer" the better going are often scratched from races because of the track being soft and not their ideal surface

Conversley there are horses that are scrathched or threatened to be scratched when the track is firm and fear of jarring up because it is not their ideal surface.

Some horses get through the heavy going better than others as some run better on top of the ground than others.

There appear to be a lot of people who use logic and (rating/handicap)methods when assessing races, but throw their hands up in the air when the tracks are wet.........why?! Why doesn't the same "logical" methods not apply to assessing selection on Wet tracks? Are the methods actually flawed?

Some people on this forum and the Horse Racing Forum say "NEVER bet on wet tracks". Is it because their method/stats/research doesn't stack up when the track is worse than dead..... Things like the following are offered up:
"Knew I shouldn't have bothered posting becasue of Wet Tracks"
"Bring out the darts, its a wet track"
"I go fishing/golf when it rains"

I must admit my method works in any condition (keeping detailed records since 2000). I'm not here to promote my method or record, just wondering why it is...

So I ask again..... are they biased against Wet track because their method doesn't stack up on slow-heavy tracks.... think the answer is YES!

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Stix
.......Giddy Up..... !!

Hi Stix, I prefer wet tracks and always bet more. "The wetter, the better".

Stix.

I must confess I was one of the Believers AGAINST too until Marcel Plante from trb gave me very nice letter explaing the ins and outs of wet track betting

Cheers.
darky.

Thing about this thread....oh, and thanks Darky and Mark for your thoughts (positive or otherwise)...... is that I can bet my bottom dollar (it's a long way down), that the people that are - not so much aimed at - but will find themselves in this category - HAVE READ THE THREAD and "bothered" not to reply or post..... which is validation in a way.

Winter must be like hell for their missuses !!!

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Stix
.......Giddy Up..... !!

Not my missus old sun, believe it or not, she picked 6 winners from 8 races in Melb. the week before last. I was floored! She seems to have developed an uncanny ability for form-line form study. She's leaving me for dead lately, that's for sure.

I fail to see why posters are apparently annoyed that nobody has come forth to challenge the “bet in the wet” theory. If something works for those of you that DO bet on rain affected tracks, GREAT JOB! I don’t bet in the wet for a number of statistical reasons but in the end it also boils down to my belief that it adds an additional risk to a bet and is a risk that can be eliminated. Minimising the risk factors are the key to making a profit as is the self discipline required to stick to your guns. That is simply MY view and I don’t want to force anybody to agree with me.

It is also a matter of personal preference. We all have our idiosyncrasies. Some won’t bet at Moonee Valley. Some swear against betting on the footy. Others steer clear of apprentice jockeys or horses resuming from a spell. Whatever it is, it is a choice and does not require a detailed interrogation or explanation.

For some weird reason , I have found Fast tracks produced less profit for me according to my computerised stats using my own selections.
The SR is the same, its just the average price drops away.

I found most of my systems worked just as well on Wet tracks & produced greater profit.
I found horses that have never run on a wet track before , perform just as well as horses who have had successful wet track experience.
I feel Horses with wet track exposure & failed ,have to treated with suspiscion.

I agree with Privateer, a lot does come down to ones comfort level & past experiences.
I find the more highly tuned horses produce a number of form reversals on wet tracks & one will often hear a commentator say , "it appears the horse did not appreciate the going".

I guess one has to go over ones personal past stats, involving wet tracks & maybe make a discission from there.

Cheers.

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Cheers.

My original (and subsequent) post come did not come accross as intended (sorry )...... Didn't mean for it to be so confronting and/or challenging........ so, lets try again with out the attitude!

Why is it that only ONE FACTOR (i.e. Track being wet ) can throw a well performing (not necessarily profitable) rating/selection methods and punters into a such a complete case of chaos?

How can ONE VARIABLE have such a negative impact? People assess for Dead or better, what changes so dramatically when the track is Dead or worse? As I stated ealier: When it's good going, some horses go well "on top of the ground", whilst others struggle and vise versa....... so why is a wet track a no go?

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Stix
.......Giddy Up..... !!

You are right Stix. Maybe people stay away from rain because the rain effects the horses mood. Just how people change their mood when it rains so does horses.

Now the 'challenge' has gone I'll give my opinion as far as I see it anyway.

When tracks become slow or heavy, there is not only '1 variable' that changes. There are heaps. If you talked to any track manager about what happens to his track when it gets excess water, He won't stop talking for an hour while he describes every inch of it and the variables involved around the track surface that can affect the outcome of a race. On top of that all tracks respond differently to excess water as will the runners on any particular wet day and depending on the track their racing on. A win in the heavy at Eagle Farm doesn't translate to being a good thing at Ipswich in the heavy. All tracks are different when slow or heavy.