I know I am jumping the gun a little, but I love this race and am trying to keep up it all. Do you think this is a fair assessment? I know the Northerly fans will give me flack, but I'm a big boy, although I'm not really looking forward to it. Can anyone add to what I have missed, which is probably plenty... Updated 17th...

1 VINNIE ROE (IRE) Dermot Weld 59. Oh who knows? Obviously a great stayer, and may take our Cup OS. Vintage Crop did it, but he was easier to line up. He ran 3.17 odd in the Goodwood Hcp 3200, which is just outside Kingston Rule's race record 3.16.3 for the 3200. Vintage had to be a chance on that time, and I got on! But Vinnie Roe is not so easy to line up. His 2800 metre form is very sound. Ran 2.58.4 on a Good track in Ireland last year. Well we can compare that to the race records in Australia. The record at Rosehill is 2.58.2 and Belmont Park in WA is 2.54.98... By the same token, the record at Flemington is 3.00.84 but this is in a hurdle? Look, Vinnie is smart, and Dermot Weld has done it before! Can he do it again? Probably, I'm not going to pot yet... A lot of the so called experts bag these invaders every year, but their record is sound, and over a 10 year period now. Dismiss these horses at your peril.
2 NORTHERLY Fred Kersley 58. Are they serious? Can't believe they are paid up in the Mel Cup. What a champion horse!!! What a fairytale finish! And that's exactly what it would be, a fairytale, and the horse would be finished! How dare they run this champion into the ground in a Melbourne Cup. This race ruins a horse, very few come back from such a gruelling run. But I suppose when you think about it, he is a 6 year old, and may only have a year of racing left in top company, is a gelding, has nothing much left to prove, so may retire as a police horse.... Still got me beat, doubt he will stay, and why risk embarrassing this champ? Still would be in shock if he runs, I mean, everything would have to go right for him to win, and if the track was Slow or Heavy, he would have Buckley's chance, and more disappointingly, would be scratched on the morning of the race, and deny another runner from getting a start. I love this horse, but I'm laying him. What are they doing?
3 SKY HEIGHTS (NZ) Colin Alderson 57. You know, he has been here a few times now, and has done reasonable, but is a 7 year old now, and we have seen the best of him. What a great horse, and has won heaps of money, but seriously, is just making up numbers as far as main chances are concerned.
4 JARDINE'S LOOKOUT (IRE) Alan Jarvis 56. I don't know, is he here yet? Yes I found him. He arrives 15 October with a stablemate and Daliapour. He should start now, he has to be a chance. He come 2nd to Persian Punch in 2001, and we know how good Persian is, and he won the Goodwood Cup 3200 in August this year in 3.21.63.... Vintage Crop did the same thing, in the same time when he won our Cup! In this race at 56Kg's, he looks thrown in... He did fail over the same distance the following start though. Wonder if he is ok, or did he peak too soon? He still worries me this guy, beware! Well Jardine's arrived well with his pony, and is set to trail on Saturday at Sandown. Travelled well according to Pup and look forward to more reports on him.
5 UNIVERSAL PRINCE Bede Murray 56. What can you say? Looks like he will start. Can not see him disappointing us. This race is ideal for him. Tons better than most who will start this year, and has that finish that is required in this race. Like him! Like him allot! Will he go to the Japan Cup, or the Melbourne Cup? Will run in Caulfield Cup, and may win that race. Bede will decide after that run. My guess is the Mel Cup, and probably run in the Cox Plate, rather than the Mackinnon. Forgotten horse this year, but wont be for long!
6 DALIAPOUR (IRE) Michael Stoute 55.5. Hard to know, not that keen, but has won nearly 4 million dollars, so obviously is no slouch. He will stay, but times do concern. Won 2800 in 3.04.3 which is not that quick, but has beaten Fantastic Light , and races against the best OS horses in the world. Need to look further at him before dismissing. Yes he arrived well with Jardine's, and will have a gallop on Saturday at Sandown. Keep you posted on how he goes.
7 SANDMASON (GB) Tony McEvoy 55.5. Who knows? Has he raced in Australia yet. With McEvoy, but willing to risk at this stage.
8 HELENE VITALITY (NZ) David Hayes 54.5. Won 3 million, and David Hayes has him, remember him? Times are good for this international traveller over middle distances, but is a Zabeel so should stay. Would keep very safe at this stage.
9 CARNEGIE EXPRESS (NZ) David Payne 54. SCRATCHED.
10 HATHA ANNA (IRE) Saeed Bin Suroor 54. Have to be one of the better Goldolphin chances, although has only won $300,000 which is ordinary for one of the Sheiks steeds. Think at the weights, Hatha Anna does have a weight advantage over Jardine's Lookout, and the Goldophin factor may be the key. Still think at 3,200 metres it would be neck and neck with these two.
11 FIELDS OF OMAGH Tony McEvoy 53.5. How good could this one be? Untapped potential I would think. Is by Rubiton, so wouldn't think he could stay, but appears to be looking for further? Will be having a further look at him.
12 FREEMASON John Hawkes 53.5. Nice horse, but has had his chance's to date, but seems to always to run into better horses. Doubt we will see an upset with him even with Hawkes magic.
13 MAGUIRE (NZ) Jon Collins 53.5. Don't write off... Did beat Cyclades in the Auckland Cup, and ran a time 3.21.74..... Sure it was a Fast track, but what's a Fast track in Auckland? And that time would have given Ethereal a heart attack... Ran reasonable 12/10/02, and is in the field, paid up, and will be there with bells on! Wet or dry doesn't matter, and if Seamer rides him, and track is Slow, look out! Races forward which is a big advantage in this race.
14 PUGIN (IRE) John Oxx 53.5. Touted as a red hot chance, but have heard this one before. Not saying he can't, and appears to be well weighted compared to Vinnie Roe, so they say... Don't know. Inclined to risk, but so hard to line up these horses. Will be watching and reading with this one for now.
15 RAIN GAUGE George Hanlon 53.5. One of the better hopes I would think. Ran very well last year, and is stronger this year. Stays well, and likes all surfaces. Rarely runs a bad race and big chance for mine!
16 BEEKEEPER (GB) Saeed Bin Suroor 53. Goldophin runner, so is worthy of further assessment. Won last start, and then sent to Aus. Only lightly raced, but is not here for the frequent flyer points. First impression would be better for the experience. But hear he is a bit of a smokey for the Caulfield Cup. Look out if he wins, he may start close to favorite for this race.
17 DRESS CIRCLE (NZ) Gai Waterhouse 53. SCRATCHED.
18 KAAPSTAD WAY (NZ) Chris Wood 53. Nice horse, but had his chances, and 7 year old now. Likes it dryer than a Pommie towel... Doubt miracle will happen with him now.
19 COUNTY TYRONE Max Lees 52.5. Nice type who I think was with Bart in the early days. Still by Danewin, and may struggle to see it out. Think would need 47Kg's to figure seriously.
20 HAIL (NZ) Bruce Marsh 52.5. Very experienced trainer thrown in at the weights. Still does tend to struggle this side of the Tasman. Very smart though, and racing well. May figure.
21 HENDERSON BAY (NZ) Neville McBurney 52.5. Won the Sydney Cup with 54, but time was slow on a good track 3.26.74... 7 years old now and they don't win many Melbourne Cups. Risk.
22 HEY PRONTO (NZ) Gai Waterhouse 52.5. Will stay being out of a Palace Music mare, but did fail in the Brisbane Cup, and a fair bit of improvement would be needed to figure, I would think.
23 MAGICAL MISS Bart Cummings 52.5. SCRATCHED. Was never a hope anyway! What a false favourite I ever saw. A Danehill running 2 miles, yeah, I'd like to see that!
24 MR. PRUDENT George Hanlon 52. Has been around forever, and I think the last time an 8 year old won the Cup, Phar Lap was a maiden. Still is very dour, and loves 2 miles. Won the Sydney Cup in 2001, and second this year in that race, but is pushing to break 3.27 over this distance. Depending on luck in running, and the quality of the field, may plug into a minor place.
25 NATIVE JAZZ (NZ) Myles Plumb 52. Good stayer in the similar mould to Mr Prudent. Second to Apache King in 2001 Adelaide Cup in 3.29.7.... Prefer on 47Kg's...
26 PENTASTIC David Hall 52. Handy type still improving. Want to see him do well in the Caulfield Cup to be any chance here.
27 PRIZED GEM (NZ) Murray Baker 52. Did win the Brisbane Cup in 3.24.6, which on a dead track is not that bad. Revels in the wet, but handles all going. Will be in it for a long way. Could surprise!
28 REPUBLIC LASS Guy Walter 52. Very classy mare. Definitely on the up. Out of Canny Lad? Not sure will stay yet. Watch!
29 VICTORY SMILE (NZ) Donna Logan 52. Kiwi who ran home like a stayer in the Metropolitan. Does seem talented. May be a smokey. Received a 1.5 penalty. Looks likely to miss the Caulfield Cup, so will have final lead up in Grosby Gold Cup at Mooney Valley Oct 26.
30 ARMSTRONG (NZ) Jeffery Lynds 51.5. Last in the Sydney Cup. No.
31 CYCLADES (NZ) Cydne Evans 51.5. 7 year old Kiwi, but lightly raced. Must have had problems while a youngster. First start as a 5 year old. Ran second to Maguire in the Auckland Cup this year, good time 3.21.74 carrying 51.5Kg's. Then came out the following start to win the Wellington Cup under a steadier of 54.5 beating a field of 16 in 3.20.2.... Handles all conditions and is way over the odds for this. This is the first 7 year old that has given me goose bumps since Vintage Crop. Why can't he win? Could miss the Caulfield Cup due to the order of entry, but arrives in Melbourne on Tuesday. Lance O'Sullivan will ride him. Next start will be either Geelong Cup or Mooney Valley Cup. He has beaten Victory Smile in New Zealand. Still needs some scratchings to make the field, but should get them. Would prefer he went in without a further penalty. 51.5 is perfect weight.
32 DISTINCTLY SECRET (NZ) Mark Walker 51.5. May the Caulfield Cup field, and looks a definite chance in whatever he contests. Big watch here. The Kiwis are good.
33 SOCIETY BEAU (NZ) Mark Walker 51.5. Don't think so.
34 SPIRIT OF WESTBURY (NZ) Cliff Brown 51.5. Funny horse. Thought may have been a rough chance last year when Dye flew in to ride him, but disappointed. Is a 7 year old, but did run third in the Sydney Cup carrying 56Kg's. Bit of a also ran though.
35 GREY SONG Tommy Hughes 51. 4 year old who races forward and can stay. Grows an extra leg in the wet. Like to see another run. Reluctant to write off just yet.
36 MAYTHEHORSEBEWITHU (NZ) Michael Moroney 51. Here's a good example of what happens to a horse after busting their gut over 3200 metres. What a run for 5th last year on a unsuitable track condition for him. Sad to say, he is not the horse he was, and Moroney is struggling to get him back on the job. He is going to run out of time, better to spell him.
37 MEDIA PUZZLE (USA) Dermot Weld 51. Mystery horse who has come for the ride with Vinnie Roe. Times are reasonable, but so hard to line up. These horses are especially hard because you are damned to select, and damned if you don't. Not sure if he is fully qualified yet, so hopefully won't make the field.
38 THONG CLASSIC Pat Carey 51. Don't like the horse much, and appears to be a middle distance at best. Doubt he will make the field.
39 EAGLE RHYTHM (NZ) Leon Macdonald 50.5. Really needs to win something.
40 THE A TRAIN (NZ) Cliff Brown 50.5. Will run if doesn't go amiss, but ran a shocker 12/10/02, and although did win Adelaide Cup. was pretty ordinary time 3.29.37 albeit on slow track. Need to see more? May be a chance on affected going. Still over rated.
41 THE BIG ASK (NZ) Michael Moroney 50.5. It would be a big ask, but Moroney is a great trainer of stayers. He will need to win his next race to start I would think.
42 BIG PAT Peter Tulloch 50. Definitely can stay, and can carry weight, so interesting runner. Still wonder if he is top line enough to run the 3200 strong. Don't know? Needs to do something. Well he didn't do it in the Moe Cup. Only 2050 metres, but would have preferred a bit better than 10th. No.
43 MON MEKKI Gerald Ryan 50. Very smart 4yo mare who looked right on target for this type of race, but has been a tad disappointing this prep, not sure all is right with her. Wait till she shows more.
44 PANTANI (NZ) Robbie Laing 50. Raced forward, but disappointed on 12/10/02. Not convinced he is goog enough for this at this stage.
45 THE SECOND MORTGAGE (NZ) Michael Moroney 50. Good win 2400 12/10/02. By Housebuster so will stay. Beat weak field though which is concern.
46 TULLY THUNDER Ross McDonald 50. Do like 4yo mares in this race, but they have to make the field. Keep an eye out for her next start.
47 WE'RE DANCING Gai Waterhouse 50. Doubt Gai will be dancing, but better than a lot of these.
48 CAVALLO BRUNO (NZ) Keith Flynn 49.5. 8 year old who ran 3.21.25 at Flemington in April, so obviously is very dour. If he snuck into the field could be annoying if racing keen. Ran a great race in the Moe Cup 2050metres. Flashed home from well back to finish 2nd. Maybe?
49 FIRETAINE (NZ) Stuart Webb 49.5. Reasonable stayer who I doubt would make the field.
50 GILLESPIE (NZ) Jack Denham 49.5. Very interesting runner. Not the most exciting horse going around, but did win the Queen's Cup 3200 in Brisbane in November last year in a very good time 3.18.9... He carried 55.5Kg's, and likes the wet as well as dry. Sure it was Brisbane, and he didn't beat much, but was a very fast time for this distance and is Denham trained. Big watch on this one.
51 INCLUSION (NZ) Gai Waterhouse 49.5. Doubt it.
52 RUM George Hanlon 49.5. Very disappointing 12/10/02. Just making up numbers I think.
53 BELLONIC Tony Noonan 49. Would shock.
54 BONDI ICEBERG Tony Wildman 49. No.
55 CRESCENT (NZ) Graeme Rogerson 49. Zabeel, so will reassess if it wins something.
56 FORLORNA (IRE) Sheila Laxon 49. No Ethereal, can trainer do miracles with 6yo mare?
57 GENTLE GENIUS Tony Wildman 49. Nup.
58 GLOW BABY John Symons 49. Doubt it.
59 GOLD LOTTEY Graeme Rogerson 49. Needs to win something.
60 HAWK EYE (NZ) Tony McEvoy 49. Zabeel who needs to win something.
61 L'AVENIR Denis Walters 49. Might be a hope if they let him start on Monday.
62 LE DESTINA Russell Cameron 49. Will stay, don't write off just yet.
63 LESTER THUNDERWING Ken Keys 49. Keep an eye on this one. Might see the best of him at 3200. Ran ok on 12/10/02. Is a Last Tycoon out of a Sir Tristram mare, will handle all conditions, and will stay all day. Can't picture the headlines "Ken Keys and Luke Curry grab the Cup from Bart", but not the worst, and write your own ticket on his price. Multiples?
64 LEXITAW John Symons 49. His father won a Melbourne Cup, but he is 7. Forget it.
65 LIGHTUMA Tony McEvoy 49. Lacks the class, but is a Umatilla. Needs to win something.
66 LITTLE MISS QUICK (NZ) Leon Macdonald 49. Nicely bred. Father was a stayer, (Pentire) Mothers father was a sprinter but quality (Zephyr Bay). Only 4, and if she got a start, could give some cheek in the race, but don't know much about her. When is she running next? Keep an eye out!
67 MANANG (NZ) Lee Freedman 49. 2nd to Magical Miss last year over 2500 at set weights. Zabeel and will stay. Scratched 12/10/02. Something wrong?
68 MISS MELISS (NZ) Bart Cummings 49. Ran ok from bad barrier 12/10/02. Zabeel, and Bart a big plus. Watch! Still needs to improve on that effort.
69 NATIONAL TREASURE (NZ) Gai Waterhouse 49. Zabeel and Gai combo. Promises allot, but very disappointing 12/10/02 in weak race. Should have done more. Still Gai ???
70 NAUDERS Danny J Bougoure 49. Not without a hope if starts, and Favelons trainer is pretty good. Will stay the distance, and nothing on his back.
71 OLD TAWNY (NZ) Ronald Hutchinson 49. Like a drop of port, but not for mine.
72 PRESIDENT HUGHES (NZ) Mark Oulaghan 49. Would shock.
73 REQUIEM Tony McEvoy 49. Others better, but plugs on.
74 SCRUMPTIOUS (NZ) Bevan Laming 49. No.
75 SOLDADO Tony McEvoy 49. If he made the field, he can stay. Needs to win something.
76 TYROLEAN Bart Cummings 49. Scratched 12/10/02 so could be problems. Doubt would stay being a Danehill. If she makes the field which I doubt, will be way under the odds. Is she wins, I give up! Why is Ustinov not paid up? On target for Cox, but can't beat Lonhro, or Sunline for that matter, you wouldn't think. Can't work Bart out sometimes. Would nearly win the Melbourne Cup if it ran.
77 ZAMARIN Tony Vasil 49. Good Mooney Valley night horse, but don't think up to this.
78 PLATINUM SCISSORS Gai Waterhouse 46. Yeah right!

[ This Message was edited by: Tab Hunter on 2002-10-17 21:29 ]

For what it is worth, these are the horses still in the field, that I think are a chance in the MC.

Hatha Anna, Maguire, Magical Miss, Cyclades, The A Train, Forlorna, Nauders & Soldado.

Very nice summary Tab Hunter.

You have done your research.

I can't believe Gai is even contemplating running Platinum Scissors over 3200m. Didn't she learn with Nothin' Leica Dane?????

Knackered a good horse forever!

I think Bart has a good chance this year with Miss Meliss and Magical Miss.

Will reserve further judgements until at least the Mackinnon.

Tab Hunter – don’t agree with your observation that “at the weights, Jardine's Lookout would give him (Hatha Anna) a flogging.”

Jardine’s Lookout did wallop Hatha Anna over 3219m in August – Hatha Anna meets Jardine’s Lookout 3.5kg better on that run.

More importantly Hatha Anna did finish 3.5 lengths in front of Jardine’s Lookout over 4023m his start before, and meets Jardine’s Lookout 2kg better on that run.

Aside from that, great summaries!
_________________


[ This Message was edited by: Rogan Josh on 2002-10-15 23:36 ]

Yes, I think your assessment is right Rogan Josh. Did get a little carried away with the flogging description. Adding the Goldophin factor, Hatha Anna does look a better proposition at the weights. So hard to line these OS horses up! With regard to Miss Meliss, she could be Bart's better chance of the two, Equine Investor. She is nicely bred, but still a maiden I think! Would be a fantastic acheivement, if only she made the field, but what a genius he is, and hate to bet against him. Magical Miss though worries me a little. She was 3yo when she won the Oaks at set weights, and just wonder about her ability at the end of 3200 to stay strong. If she wasn't with Bart, I would have to pot her. Danehills just don't like 2 miles. May be a different proposition at set weights against fillies, but would have to say the more seasoned staying types would have her measure. Still, would be happy to be proved wrong if she takes it out. She does look promising. Will have to check out her Dams Sire, Spectacular Bid. I know he was a champion, but think only at a middle distance? I mean, if Magical Miss was to be a chance, then surely the 4yo Mare Manang would be an equally good chance, being a Zabeel, and with Freedman. Sadly though it appears something is amiss with her after being scratched last start. It's a bit of a shame for the Freedmans, she was their only chance...

Just a quick addition for you Magical Miss fans. She did inherit her wet track ability from her Dams Sire Spectacular Bid. What a horse he was. 30 starts for 26 wins, 2 places, and 1 show. He must have been off colour the day he ran unplaced. Won US2.8 million up to the early 80's, where he went to stud. He won plenty of races on what they call a "Sloppy Track", and alot of them Group 1's. Can't find any race that he started in that was over a mile and a quarter, but majority of his starts between 1700 and 2000 metres. So ************ed if I know how she will stay. Brilliantly bred though isn't she? Seems perfect for a Cox Plate. In recent years, Oaks winning Fillies have not gone on to even place in a Melbourne Cup, let alone win it. But there was one special one. You have to go back to 65'... The good old days, Light Fingers, and a young Bart Cummings grabbed the prize! In fact, he quinella'd the race with Ziema. When asked after the race for a comment, he replied, "I beat myself"... What a charactor, good on him, hope he can do it again! Cheers...

Whether anyone agrees with your or not Tab Hunter, thats an Outstanding piece of work. Thanks for taking the time.

I don't have a firm view yet on who I fancy for the cup, but I have learnt a few things from experience that may help anyone interested.

If we go back through all the past winners you see a common theme....nearly all meet the following criteria:

* They have excellent recent form in their last start or two(wins, close placings)
* That form is in G1/G2 races.
* The horse has proven capable of winning over staying trips in G1/G2 company.

Every year though there are pretenders that fool us into thinking they have good winning chances, by virtue of their fair to average performances in lead up runs and then promotion from so called media experts...comments like "just about to hit peak form", "crying out for the distance" etc. etc. seem to be all too common and do nothing more than fool usnsupecting punters into thinking a horse has a better chance than it really does.

My advice would be that you will be well served by at least sticking to the above rules as the first filtering process to come up with your selections for the Cup. Ignore those that don't meet this criteria, history says they don't win.

Following are features of recent winners, showing how consistently they have met the above:

2001 Ethereal: 3rd at her 2nd last start in a G1 race then won the Caulfield Cup at her last start (2400m).
2000 Brew: 2nd in his 2nd last start over 2500m in a G2 race, then won his last start in another G2 race over 2500m.
1999 Rogan Josh: Formline read 1,4,1 all over 2400m, all in group 2/1 races. Last start prior to cup 2400m win at G1 WFA.
1998 Jezabeel: Statistically an exception finished 6th in the Caulfield Cup at her prior start but would have won (in my view) if she wasn't absolutely flattened by Taufan's Melody in the late part of the straight.
1997 Might and Power: Won the Caulfield Cup at his start prior.
1996 Saintly: Won the Cox Plate at his start prior, placed in Metrop prior to that and Derby placed as a 3YO in arguable one of the highest quality Derby's ever.
1995 Doriemus: Won the Caulfield Cup at his start prior

The list goes on. Of course there are exceptions in some years, but the fact remains that history says you need excellent recent form (wins or close places) in G1 (preferrably) or at the worst G2 races to win the Melbourne Cup.

As we approach the race it will be interesting to apply these rules and see what contenders we are left with.

Well, Magical Miss out of the Melbourne Cup... ************... I had never seen such a false favorite. That's going to ************ the prices for the punter now. She had no hope anyway, damn...