Hi, these are my top rated horses. All have winning form and fit from recent racing.
The actual race conditions and odds will determine if they become bets.

MR1 6 CHESTER COUNTY
MR3 6 UNZIPPED
MR4 6 VICTORY VEIN (last start a worry)
MR5 1 FALVELON
MR6 2 VICTORY SMILE*
MR7 8 SUNLINE
MR8 12 SPECIAL GRANGE*
MR9 5 SCENIC PEAK*
MR10 10 DON'T TELL TOM

* GOOD VALUE IN EARLY MARKETS (thats my opinion)

I have rated Sunline above Northerly, my pick for the Plate. Thats my ratings method.
I still think it will be Northerly, Lonhro and Sunline in a photo.

Hi, I'll be eating rice and beans if I backed all my selections. So much for my "value assessments".

August/September I was going very well in melbourne then after the 1st week of October only 2 winners. I'm still ahead but 2 more weeks like this and it could be all square.

Sydney was a big lose for the 1st time.

The question I'm pondering is do I stick with a ratings based approach where I only back a top rater if I feel confident of value, or move towards a more subjective intuitive process.

Today I mentally noted Helenus and Northerly as the most likely winners when compiling the ratings. Since they did not come out on top they were not concidered for bets.

Only way to find out is to note these horses and see how they go regards profitability. The ratings method has produced profits for 3 years, though it has decreased from 95% to 20%. With the spring carnival in the past being the most profitable period.

Maybe the statistical peak has long gone and I'm heading for the trough with the angle I'm using.

If I had of bet in the Cox Plate on Northerly instead of just watching would he of won? Practiclly every bet this month has ended up on a tailender.

Writing this has given me some thoughts for another angle to investigate.