Hi All,

I would like some advice, have been testing a system for a while and while its going quite well for win the place strike rate is above 80% . This averages about 2 bets a day.

What could I do and where could I do it to capitalise on this as well? I looked at betfair and place bets are certainly not worth the trouble , the odds on offer is mostly way under the TAB odds. Even betting using QLD TAB it has 19% POT.

I have never thought of betting places but it seams like a worthwhile investment to run separately from the win bets, so I would appreciate some advise from those that bet places.

Michal

Michal, 80% S/R and 19% POT is fantastic. Whilst I can manipulate my plan to achieve 80% S/R ,the number of bets diminishes dramatically as does the average divi, and my POT stays around 4%. So I go for the better turnover.

In your case I would have a look at how the plan has fared say over at least 2 years if that is possible, but I would still only bet at level stakes. If you get bored you could run a seperate bank of 5 units and bet 20% never reducing, always stop if there is insufficient funds to place that last bet, and start again with a 5 unit bank.
This will give a lot of fun, and some interesting winning runs, with very little damage should you hit a bad run. But remember only on a small scale, keep your main bets at level stakes.

Thanks Party,


Unfortunately I cant test back for more then about 2 months, all I can do is go forward. I have live tested for 3 days for 9/10 the only looser having ran last LOL. The average div is $1.45 using QLD TAB.

I remember that we had some discussion here before about place betting and where the best is. I have discovered that it isnt Betfair. For instance today my 2 winning bets were 1.48 on betfer and lowest TAB was 1.6
the other was much the same, and on top of that I also have to pay 5% for the privelage of getting the lowest divs.

I am hopeing that the system will continue to produce .

Thanks for the advice , I thought that it would be a good way just getting the straight bets , I do know that some people risk doubles and triples and so on , I just had 9 in a row, boy that would be something havoing something that acumulates them perhaps someone has some experiance with that?

Michal

Michal, I always considered Betfair as the proverbial "free lunch" and so have never gotten into it, (I could easily be wrong)

Past results, well as we all know backfitting isn't really the way to go but once you have a plan that you are working; it can indicate what you are likely to expect.

As far as long winning runs are concerned, yes it does happen fairly regularly with place betting but in nearly 5 years I can tell you that I've tried every which way to improve the profit by staking plans, you name it I've tried it, and the end result was that if you took the total amount bet and divided it by the total number of selections, and applied *that* at level stakes over the same selections; the resulting level stakes POT remained the same as normal flat level stakes (though you may have increased stakes on average).

Party,


Thanks for that, I'll take your word as I know that that is your speciality. New only remains to ask where do I bet, TAB ? and which one or are there some corporate bookies that look kindly upon such a strike rate?

Michal

Michal, I am told there are alternatives but; I and *several members of my family* have various accounts, so I tend to switch the bets around a bit. But I always bet best tote (i.e.) best of 3 for Metro meets, otherwise for Country I bet half at unitab and half at country best (i.e. best of NSW & Supertab), this gives the best average.

I don't like the IAS one personally as *guarentee to beat at least 2 totes* sounds great , but say one pays $1.04, another pays $1.10c, and the other pays $1.40 (happens a lot) then they will pay you say, $1.11c and have fulfilled their promise, but you dip out badly.

I have to admit I have been a bit lazy looking for alternatives (or kinda gave up) as there always seemed to be a catch. Just recently I received a circular from Best Divi dott comm dott au offering to BEAT 3 totes which I was very interested in but have not been able to find out who they are or even if it is genuine or what.

If you do find any better deals than Sporstbet or Sportingbet I would be very interested.

Hi Michael,
One method to capitalise on ones place bets is to divide ones bank by say 13

Now divide the price of the horse into that base figure.

e.g. bank $1000 / 13 = 77 Base amount.
Divide horses price into this base amount
If paying $1.30 / 77 = 59.23 O/L = Ret 77

If paying $2.30 / 77 = 33.47 O/L = Ret 77

What this does, it places more on the lower priced runners & less on the longer priced runners.
You probable already observed that it seems like the shorter priced horses tend to dominate.

These fractional amounts are easily catered to with Betfair by using one of the free betting tools such as Race Trader Pro. which gets under the Betfair min.

I have found Betfair prices in general , are better than the TABs.
Also one can calculate ones bets to return & not rely on the TAB price which could be seen as a lottery as to what ones div is going to be.

If the price on Betfair is a lot lower than the TAB , you can almost guarantee its going to run a place.

You will see over 100 bets, that the returns are usually greater with this procedure.

Cheers.

__________________
Cheers.

Hi Bhagwan,


I have writen my own betfair bot , and it bets sub $5 limit I can also program it to do what you suggest. As I havent had much experiance betting place when is the most commonly best time to bet on the place? Seams like the price isnt as good when ever I had a look.

The staking plan you suggest basicaly is betting to a take out figgure ? Correct ? I will give that a try with the results I have and see what the difference is.

Thanks for your help

Michal

Hi Bhagwan,

Yep, it certainly makes a difference.

Much appreciated.

It is sad that this can only be done on betfair, where the liquididty on place bets isnt that great at all.

Michal

Hi Michal,
That's right Michal, one is betting to price which is not accurate if using the TABs system due to fluctuations.

Oddly enough the best price for place betting seems to be around the 1-2 min mark & not at the close as one would suspect , strange when one considers that the market usually settles more in the last 30 secs.

One thing I always do if wanting to know if your trusty steed is value or not..
. Look at your horses live win market price

.Convert the price to fractional odds.

.Divide this fractional win price by 4

.Add +1 to the fractional price answer .

.You now have the Fair Place Price you horse should be before one bets on it .

If the market is paying the same or more than this ,it is considered fair value.

Cheers.

You are right about the liquidity, but if everyone talks about the possibilities of the Betfair place market ,like we are doing now , that can only help encourage more people to bet with it, once they know the advantages & some of the techniques that can be introduced to help squeeze a profit .
Techniques & tricks that cant be used on the TAB system.

What Betfair place market needs is more people to do Place Lay betting to help frame the market & help get it within the 300% market range.

One trick I use is to frame a 305-310% Lay market to show a profit no matter which horse wins.
This can be done on certain races with good liquidity liquidity.

__________________
Cheers.