Smartgambler
Pro-Punter

Go Back   OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums > Public Forums > Horse Race Betting Systems
User Name
Password
Register FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark all topics as read

To advertise on these
forums, e-mail us.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #1  
Old 26th June 2009, 12:27 PM
m_v2040 m_v2040 is offline
Member
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 17
Default Simple system test

Hi guys can someone please run a simple query for me? Total POT on all favourites over last year and total POT on all favourites down in distance between 100 and 600 meters (seperate queries)?
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 26th June 2009, 12:53 PM
lomaca lomaca is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 1,096
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by m_v2040
Hi guys can someone please run a simple query for me? Total POT on all favourites over last year and total POT on all favourites down in distance between 100 and 600 meters (seperate queries)?
This is on more than 3 to four years of data

Fav. S/R 32.62% POT -11.01%

Fav down >=100 and <=600 S/R 33.48% POT -9.62%

You have to realise that when a horse is favorite, any additional filter has negligible effect on return and strike rate. Unless of course a 1 or 2 % makes a difference for you, then it can be important.

Good luck

Last edited by lomaca : 26th June 2009 at 12:56 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 26th June 2009, 01:06 PM
m_v2040 m_v2040 is offline
Member
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 17
Default

Thanks for that, much appreciated. Could i trouble you run that same query but only where the fav is male?
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 26th June 2009, 08:10 PM
lomaca lomaca is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 1,096
Default

Fav. all S/R 32.62% POT -11.01 %
-----------------------------------------
Fav. colts S/R 33.30 % POT -9.28 %
Fav. geldings S/R 32.68 % POT -10.84 %
Fav. fillies S/R 33.40 % POT -10.7 %

Fav down-dist all >=100 and <=600 S/R 33.48% POT -9.62%
-------------------------------------------------------------
Fav down-dist colts >=100 and <=600 S/R 33.95% POT -7.78%
Fav down-dist geldings >=100 and <=600 S/R 33.46% POT -9.71%
Fav down-dist fillies >=100 and <=600 S/R 33.40% POT -10.7%

Good luck

PS, for less than $500 a year everyone can have a personal database, if you are winning, you can afford it and it helps you win more. If you are losing, maybe this is what will make a difference.
I'm not selling anything, check out the ads on this forum.

Last edited by lomaca : 26th June 2009 at 08:33 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 27th June 2009, 12:55 AM
Bhagwan Bhagwan is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 2,428
Default

I believe one will see a difference in what sort of favs win depending on price range & field size.

Example
All Favs approx 30%W Plc 62%
This includes odds-on horses which on their own win 55% of their races

Favs 1-7 runners 40%W SR

Favs priced $2.80+ = 24%SR
This is the value range one likes to hit upon.
Any less & it starts to get really hard to pull a profit.

Favs priced $4.70-6.00 18% W SR
These can make for good laying possibilities.

Favs in 9 runners & less 70%Plc SR
Delete females that are competing against males & are Fav 75%

If one were to back all Favs in races 1-7 priced 2.90 & less & deleting the competing females , it shows a slight profit.
Any more & it shows a loss.

The Fav will run 2nd or 3rd 32% of the time .
They percentage between the the two varies slightly month to month & year to year.

Favs in Maiden events who are having their first career start have the highest W% of all ... weird.


Check out the interactive UK site by Adrian Massey (Google) where one can crunch some ideas.

Maybe try & break up ones research over field sizes.
1-7
8-9
10-12
13-15
16-20

Its all very well to get a SR on a fav.
Its another to get the price you fell you need to back it.

Cheers.
__________________
Cheers.
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Forum Jump



All times are GMT +10. The time now is 03:44 AM.


Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.0.3
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
©2008 OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved . ACN 091184655