Ok comrades,be patient with me I'm old and the grey cells are winding down,,the question is this.


My long term strike rate is 29.4%

Average odds are $3.40

To me this seems 29.4 x 3.4 = $99.96 or break even.

Yet using the retirement staking plan,which I have done since the good Bhagwan introduced it to us to many moons ago, I seem to be making about 7.5% per hundred per month,or if you like $75 per $1000 per month.

Or an annual profit of $900 working off a bank of $1000 per month

I usually punt five days a week with more or less seven bets a day.I keep good records and the bottom line is as above.

If I stayed away from wednesdays it would be better.

Is my logic totally flawed??

What got me thinking about this (because I usually just accept what is happening without getting too involved with the maths) was this handy little % calculator that I happened across.

http://math.about.com/library/weekly/aa061502a.htm

http://www.grandstand.com.au/master...retirement.html

syllabus23, its said that the Retirement will increase profits by about 15%, providing the plan at least breaks even at levels.

I've heard of some unsuspecting souls who then considered that if you use it on a plan that shows a loss of say 5%, that you will end up with 10% POT.

Apparently that doesn't happen , if fact the loss is extenuated.

One of the best plans I've seen though.

Have a method that has following stats since 1/1/08 (Unitab):

Bets 98
Wins 54 (S/R 55.1% Av Div $2.5)
Plcs 71 (S/R 72.4% Av Div $1.39)
Win +36.8
Plc +0.5

Longest losing streak 5
Longest winning streak 8 (and a 7)
Lose QLD and bit better again....

Retirement plan worth a crack? Never really looked at it - need more info??

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Stix
.......Giddy Up..... !!

STIX, I offer this reply purely from LONG TERM observations, 98 bets is nothing you need more like 9,800 bets to evaluate a selection method. I'm not having a go at you, you may well have cracked it, it's just that so many times I thought I had, only to fall in a crumpled heap, even my most revered place method that I have been operating for alomost 6 years has seen some VERY scary moments, thankfully it has always recovered (SO FAR) to hover around the 4% POT mark. (always getting the best possible return,) I doubt if many would have persevered!!!

That's the key word, Party.

I have seen some very good ideas floated here by quite cluey blokes, that actually work long term, only to see them abandoned, for something else after a couple of weeks or months at most.

Good luck

By the selection method's very nature Party, I'd be 157 yo by the time I had that history.
I know where you are comming from, but it just not applicable/possible here. Thanks for your reply, always appreciate your input.

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Stix
.......Giddy Up..... !!

G'day Stix 'n'all, well maybe I exagerated a bit hee hee, I was probably onto my 2nd bottle of clearskin Merlot by by then hahah!

And of course you hit the nail on the head, even with a good plan it's hard to get the turnover that's needed to actually make enough off the punt. Without going into selling tips, ratings, etc etc.

If you merly increased stakes, it would soon impact on the divvies.

I've got a plan "B" at the moment which has the potential to achieve some hefty stakes, but I'm only betting when I can get the right fixed price, so far so good!

Good Luck!