Hi Michael, sent you an email, but don't know how often you check in, so I ask it here as well.

Re. the Don S method, am I right to assume the following:

Let's say there are seven starters under $10 in the market, then I would have to bet on them regardless of the DS rated price, or only if they are under $10 in the DS market as well?

Use dutch betting or as you later changed, level stakes on each?
The other rules are clear.

Thanks

Hi, lomaca.

Got your e-mail. I'll answer your five questions here.

1) I include Maidens as they have shown to be profitable.
2) Yes, the minimum is 12 starters.
3) Yes, to be a qualifying race the minimum price of the fave is $3 in Don Scott's market.
4) Yes, identify all horses at single figure prices in the TAB market.
5) I bet them at level stakes on Betfair.

I only use Don Scott's market to identify the qualifying races. I originally dutched the selections (all under $10 in the TAB market) using his prices but they were generally way out of whack especially in the sprint races. So I decided to bet level stakes.

Because some of the qualifying races have had an odds-on fave, I have also been considering only those races where his fave is a minimum of $4, and then backing level stakes on Betfair every horse that is $20 and less in the TAB market. I had a quick look at some of these races and the method showed good promise (even boxed quinellas with the TAB), but because the amount of races were very few, there were some days with no qualifying races, I did not persue it.

If you have this info you might take a look at it, or even change some of the rules.

Yes I have the info, actually there is a lot of interesting stuff there.

Will get onto it right now and let you know.
Thanks

Have you thought of using a dutching calculator to ensure a profit of say 50%-100% on each race, before backing at level stakes?

E.g. do you look for a minimum return on each race?

The Schmile

TheSchmile,

I originally dutched. However when I missed a couple of profitable races because I did not get the bets on in time I decided to change to level stakes.

I don't know if this is a a better method, but I didn't miss any more bets.


Out of interest, there were 8 races today (12-plus starters) where the Don Scott fave was $4 or higher. Using the single figure horses on the TAB the winner was struck in all 8 races. For a total outlay of $28 the TAB return was $33.10.

To clarify my previous postings here - I originally dutched-bet on the TAB as per D.Scott's prices, but changed to the TAB prices because the D.S. market was skewered in the sprint races. After missing a couple of profitable races because I could not get the bets on in time I then began to bet level stakes on Betfair, which was convenient and also profitable.

If anyone's interested, the following races have 12-plus runners and the fave is $4-plus in the D.S. market.

Caulfield R8
Dombeen races 2, 4, 5, & 6
Gold Coast R8
Newcastle R4
Toowoomba R2
Morphetville races 5 & 6.

Thanks Michael for the heads up - I will have a crack at those races today as I follow this system in addition to your lay system - sometimes I am like a blowfly in a bottle in my study on a Saturday!

Cim85, if you had followed it yesterday you would've won. Hopefully it'll be the same today.

Here's something similar I've been looking at (unfortunately I've not been betting it). It has produced a small profit by just backing them to win on the TAB, and even better by boxing them in quinellas. There have been a few quinellas that have paid over $100, the largest has been over $200. The rules are simple:

1) Minimum of 12 starters.
2) Fave a minimum of $4 in the Tele market.
3) Max selections of 70% of starters.
4) Selections to be under $20 in the Tele market.

The only filter I've applied is if the Tele fave, second fave or third fave has been scratched then its a no-bet race.

If interested, here are today's selections:

Dombeen
R1 nos. 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 ,8, 10, 13, 15
R4 nos. 1, 3, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, 14, 15
R5 nos. 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11, 12, 15

Morphetville
R6 nos. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 12

Corowa
R4 nos. 1, 2, ,3, 4, 7, 8, 9, 10, 13
R5 nos. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ,6, 7, 8, 10

Belmont
R6 nos: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 13.

Its buying the quinellas, but as it has been very profitable in the testing period I hope it will continue.

The Tele market system had a small profit with both quinella and win betting.

The outlay for quinellas was $270 for a return of $281.
The outlay for win was $65 and the return was $75 with the TAB. I had a much better result with Betfair.

If anyone had bet the Tele method today there would have only been 3 races with the abandoment of Bathurst.

The quinella outlay was $100 and the return was $118 for a profit of $18.

The win outlay was $26 and the return was $28.80 for a profit of $2.80. However, Betfair has provided me with a profit of $32.90 - a huge difference compared to the TAB.