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#1
19th October 2010, 09:39 PM
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Level stakes V Kelly
Don't want to confuse another thread, so thought I'd start another with this question.
Its been suggested that the Kelly will beat level stakes hands down, and other staking plans even more so, and I am a dimwit for suggesting that level stakes is the only way. So can I humbly ask, can the Kelly or any other plan increase PROFIT ON TURNOVER? The comparison that I'm after here is after many thousands of bets, to compare the total amount bet (regardless of sequence) divided by the total number of bets?? 
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#2
19th October 2010, 10:46 PM
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The thing with kelly betting is you need to accurately price your selection then bet the overlays, 90% of punters would fail in this regard.
Level stakes in my opinion over 1000s of races would be a better option or better still a percentage of bank calculated not per bet but better on a days or weekly or possibly number of bets.
__________________
One Drive "If the corporates are treating you poorly , just go elsewhere." "If they need you , they will soon find out." "If you need them , you will soon find out." --moeee _______________________________________________
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#3
19th October 2010, 10:59 PM
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Thanks for the reply Shaun, yes the smoke and mirrors alive and well again, I mean, overlays according to who?
I want cold hard facts, i.e. ok, so you use the Kelly, cos you are pretty good at assessing the % chance, so after 1000 bets (say) you have hundreds of differing amounts invested, what I'm asking is IF you total the whole lot up and see what your POT is in relation to the amount bet and the total number of bets. lets just say for arguments sake that the total amount bet was $20,000 and the total profit was $1000 so you have a 10% POT So now do the exercise divide the total amount bet ($20,000) by the number of bets ($1000) so we have an average bet of $20, so now what would have been the result of having $20 on each selection (i.e. level stakes) This dimwit says (possibly in ignorance) that the resulting POT will be exactly the same!
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#4
20th October 2010, 09:37 AM
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We have had a long and bitter debate about it on an other forum and finally the other side had to admit, they were wrong. The simple fact is: " no staking plan on earth will turn loss into a gain, that is a mathematical certainty and anyone who tells you other, is misleading you." What can happen is that some systems that show a small loss let's say after a 1000 bets, are actually winners in the longer run and would turn a profit on level stakes anyway. Now, if a punter operating this system applies a staking plan, naturally he assumes that his return to profit was entirely due to the staking plan when in reality it was not. I could provide maths to prove it but I'd be wasting my time. I think it is best to leave punters to their beliefs, and when reality hits home they quietly fade away.
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#5
20th October 2010, 11:59 AM
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Lomaca, yeah, I know you are right and in fact I know I am right, I seem to volunteer for the messengers job even though I've been shot many times.
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#6
20th October 2010, 02:55 PM
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The best staking plan would be one that has a larger bet on the animals that are the Larger Overlays.
The way you find out whether you are capable of finding Overlays, is to pretend money on perhaps 1000 horses that you assumed were Overlays. Pretend a Unit on each horse and if the return is higher than unvestment, it means you can do it , and have overcome the 15% deductions the TAB takes. Pretend these same horses , but this time bet to Prices, (S.P.) , and see if there is still a Profit on turnover. I don't know whether there will be or not, but I assume there may be. But this time, bet to your own calculated Prices , and this time, your Profit on Turnover will increase heaps compared to the level stakes. But the very best way to increase POT is to ignore bets like where you figure an animal as being an $2 Chance, but is available at $2.05 This animal would cause a substantial investment for very little return in the long run. These animals may very well salute often, but just as often, they will go down. People who reckon Mathematics can prove staking plans that don't show a Profit on level stakes are doomed are misguided. If Mathematics were such an infallible method, then these so called Mathemeticians would be winning all the loot due to applying Mathematics to who will win the particular race. There are staking systems where an increase in bet size is due to the Odds of the next horse bet winning. For Example if you followed say, and I'm not a horse person, Bart Cummings, and icreased your bet size , surely every time he loses, he is 1 race closer to a win. Its not like roulette where there is no reason Black must come up after a Red. With Trainers, or Jockeys, they MUST win or they don't eat, so the next race they will try harder and that makes it more likely following a loss.
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#7
20th October 2010, 03:08 PM
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Incidentally if the horse doesn't win, it's not the jock or the trainer who misses a meal, it's the silly owners!!! Good luck
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#8
20th October 2010, 03:36 PM
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You know what Lomaca? My memory is ********, but maybe 500 years ago, people with similar perspectives and outlooks knew that the world was flat and to travel across the sea too far will only lead to dropping into the abyss that awaits. Same people believed something about blood,dunno what, but if you Google "Galen" it will be there somewhere. I don't bet to find a big winner tomorrow. All I know is that in the last 2 years or so, I have invested heaps, maybe 25,000 dollars , and that is like average $50 or $100 per day of small bets, and still have my original Bank higher than it was 2 years ago. And I still haven't betted how I know I should be, because my personality is too messed up to do it the proper way,(gamblerholic amongst others) but just imagine how well I would be doing if I was.
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#10
20th October 2010, 03:49 PM
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