If a horse is $1.50 a place, it has a 66.67% chance of running a place.
Anyone like to guess what chance it has of running third?

Reason I ask, is I noticed that Betfair pay three place dividends on late scratchings in fields of 8 runners.
Meaning the bookies pay 2 place dividends and the Tote pays three.

It was $1.50 on Betfair and around $2.00 with the bookies.

So if I arb the horse, if it loses I win nothing, but lose nothing either.
If it runs first or second I win the arb.
If it runs third, I lose my stake.
For a $10 stake I win $5 or lose $10 (if it runs third), or breakeven.

If it runs third 33.33% of the time, I breakeven.
Any more I lose, any less I win.

My guess is that it runs third 22.22% of the time, meaning I have to win.
But my probabilities could be wrong.
Surely it can't be that simple, or maybe it is because the scenario doesn't happen often enough.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 426,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/10/2025
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg