As many people already know I use systems because patterns should prevail and hopefully find some value.

Well today I gave it a different go by just using my opinion based on current odds and a quick glance at the form guide.

I have had enough for today and spent about 2 hours watching the races.

I use a lay to liability ($20 risked) and decided if I lost the $20 that would be it for the day. I ended up laying 24 selections and had a minimum return of 10c. Obviously 10c meant a maximum odds of approx 180 was acceptable.

The return I got was $20.78 after all commission is paid (5%).

I thought many of these selections were mispriced by a long way. I also saw many selections go at long odds which I thought should be much lower (for example Pinjarra Race 3 which was an unraced horse going off at over $100).

I stayed to horses which were mostly in the $10-$50 range and were obviously not running well, couldn't run the distance or were up against far superior compeition compared to their last few races.

The thing is the whole time I was going through this I could see that the whole process couldn't be automated. Each race had its own patterns to apply that I identified and the same pattern which I identified may have been applicable to one race but not another. By pattern I mean an undervalued situation that my brain picked up fairly quickly.

In this day and age maybe a person does have an edge if they use their brain compared to all the systems and ratings out there. The brain is a mysterious thing but I will say I was extremely confident in all my selections losing (only one of them ran a very long third and the rest were 5th or worse).

Anyone wish to comment on their thoughts ?

I will say I think my brain picked up these situations because I have watched so many races and analysed so many form guides. If I had not done this and built my skill level I probably would have failed today.

Anyone one day does not win the war but its nice to have a good profit for me when I bet such little stakes.

I bet this was most days UB - the bot bets a few systems & I scan most races for other opportunities.

I usually know after a couple of races whether I am 'off or on' & discipline can be an issue at times but there are a couple of reasons why I find it a good way to go which are that as you say, some things just cant be programmed, it helps pass the time & keeps the grey matter active & I have picked up on plenty of things over the years which I wouldn't have if simply crunching numbers.

Oh & a 'stop loss' is imperative IMHO,

What generally happens when using ones own brain is that there are many pattens that one can identify with from past experience.


There will be a number of days in a row, where it goes our way.
Then along comes a day which decides to do the opposite to everything we know & understand.

This tends to leave a sour taste in our mouth which can make us feel reluctant about pursuing the process with any gusto.

The trick is to try & know that its not going to be our day after a certain number of losses & stop for the day.
That's where the discipline thing comes into it.

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Cheers.

I gave this another go today but only for a few races. I had 4 lays and all of them were unplaced. They accounted for a $4 profit laying to $20 liability.

Can't complain with that considering the horses never looked in contention.

This is interesting UB, especially on the systems thread. I'm systems crazy but I still give the selections the once over from the gray matter perspective.

A classic case in point is michaelg's "Laying the outsider" system. The other day it struck a looser (winner) and yet although it may have fitted within michaelg's parameters it was also the top rated horse on some sites and started favorite I believe on Betfew. So actually this was not following the usual pattern of his great system so to my mind it's better to back away in such cases. After all this is hardly true to the "outsider" tag of the system.

Systems are a great tool but they can never have the complexity needed to weed out the occasional under the radar runner. It has to be a judgment call.

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"Not winning on a horse that came first is one thing.....Losing on a horse that didn't come first is something else entirely!!!"

Im learning that more and more each day.