How many times have you read ? .....

Has a mammoth task from this horror draw or,

Is meeting the Jack The Giant 5.5kgs worse for a 3 / 4 lgth win or,

Distance a query (ahh, might not have been tried over this distance as a 3 y/o, might have struggled to get 1200 and is now at 1400, but is a 4 y/o now),

Doesn't seem to have come up this time in (ahhh, only had the couple of runs, might be older and taking more time, or might have been unlucky, or something else we don't know),

and the list goes on and on .....

Ask why the trainer would possibly bother letting this horse run when the scribe has announced it can't win ?

The overs can at times be astonishing, and thanks must go to the scribes who point put why certain horses are really up against it. I'm talking decent horses, not champions, but city class with improvement in them, who's odds blow like a force 10 because of the negative comments / perception of ONE bad factor.

We're looking for an edge aren't we ?

Also those nags in decent events that are hyped up by the press aren't worth a snorker as far as odds go ..... then there's the Group winners that 'must win' at their next start also.

Go thru the paper tomorrow and look for some of the negative comments about decent horses ..... a decent horse will be <= 20 sts, have a few Metro wins, and not be out of place in this company, and have improvement in it ..... nothing too concrete. Point is ..... looking for a decent horse that cannot win because of ONE factor drawn to our attention by the newspapers, or ONE factor that in realistic terms puts the nag behind the eightball for those into serious handicapping.

Yes, that approach can yield some nice overs.

I used to target the Best Bets Top 5 selections & look for runners with negative comments & it was amazing how many would get up to win at juicy prices.

I would target races with 12+ runners because these where the races that offered the most surprise upset wins.

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Here is a Lay approach that has shown to work.

RULES
Target the horse that appears on the front cover of the Sportsman.

Lay not to win if $2.25+

That's it.

You may have already noticed , that they hardly ever seem to win if they are Priced $2.25+

They are usually hyped up to Billieo & manage to fall in a hole - Funny that.

One could Dutch the field leaving that one out & some rough heads ,
to make good profit.

They often get up to win within their next 5 starts but not today .

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Cheers.

Bhagwan, I believe your reply to be spot on ! That in itself is baaaad news for you old son .....

Another approach is to grab a Top 5 of anything.
e.g. Best Bets, Neurals any settings, Ratings, Pre-post market, Place Ranking, Av Prz Money ect.
They all have a similar SR.

Look at the UniTAB market where the 2 columns of TAB prices are shown.

Target those of our Top 5 that show that they have blown out in price.

Make Back bets on Betfair for some big overs.

12+ runners.

The more obscure the Rating application ,the greater the prices tend to be.
e.g. Sectional times & Days last Start.

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Cheers.