It is with a heavy heart I have to advise of the demise of my Neural Selection System.

I have gone over my figures and have come to the stark realism that my selections were winning inspite of the shifting sands of the Neurals not because of them.

So, that System criteria has been taken to the graveyard where all bad systems go.

However, a new idea has been born based on the inspiration from Aussie and ' garyf " My System number 2 has also been retired mainly because I had set a twenty strikes and you out policy inplace for each new system. It is up to 19, so That will be good enough for me.

The Eliminators for that System, while outside the square did not really show reality and they infact defied logic and science in their selections and I think the 19 outs might reflect that. The system cost me 19 bets at 50 cents . So a loss of $9.50.

I find paper trialing boring so now I know Sportsbet will accept a 10 cents bet I will attack that on these new ideas. 20 losses at 10 cents is $2.00.

My main System is on a 4 loss run and at this stage my bets are at $1.50 each. It is a ratchet type system with some alterations and has a built in run of lossers at 40. Once the bet gets to big for my comfort zone I draw down on the bank and start again which I have done already.

None of this $100 or $200 a race for me..

So, not to clog this up I will start another thread based on my thinking for my 10 cent System.

Star

You sound like me. Im on version 156 but finally on track.

Ha!

I have turned the corner many times, but fear I may be getting back to where I started from.

Still, System 1 still rules, so rather then fiddle with it and try and improve it, I will leave well enough alone and try to run a side system based on it, as System No 2 ( take 1 )

Star sorry but judging a selection method on an arbitrary run of outs makes no sense. We touched on this in your other thread. The likely runs of out are determined by the average starting price of your selections and therefore is going to vary greatly from selection method to selection method. Much better to judge a system on its edge/advantage.

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Thanks for the reply Angry. Yes, I know it makes no sense, But their is at least three issues here for me to consider.

Issue 1. The system was targeting the wrong races. In my opinion the Eliminators, to me, did not suit the race distance and defied Science. Somebody touched on something similar in the races they concentrate on for the very reason I am doing the opposite and for different race distances.

Issue 2. The changing sands of the neurals meant that I did not have a starting point that was consistent. I may as well have thrown a dart.

Issue3. Their was just too many bets per day and I did not have the time.

---------

Having said all that, The new System is still basically the same as the one I jettisoned but it concentrates on a more targeted distance. I appreciate your comments about starting price and expected outs and not to concentrate on a fixed run of outs.

Having said that, for me to record that information, is it possible for you to tell us what information you record in your spreadsheet. Also, how you assess if a System is worth pushing on with.

--------------

Thanks and please keep reminding me as I appreciate your input.

Star

Angry,

Your last sentence intrigues me, How do we judge a systems edge / advantage by your calculations.

Maybe, that might be a good Thread Starter, it has me interested.

Star have written on this elsewhere.

http://www.propun.com.au/racing_for...15&postcount=13

Your edge or advantage is the all important number. No edge - no profit.

There's a lot of stat's tossed about. Stat's like S/R and average SP are useful in so far as they allow you to work out your edge. Other stats (I put run of outs in this basket ) are nice to know but fairly pointless.

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Nothing too out of the odinary in fact pretty basic.

Race time, venue, race number, race distance and type, saddle number, horse name, exchange, stake, average price matched, Lay/Bet, profit, bet date and time.

I do use UTC and all my machines are set to UTC as there's no problems with daylight savings.



A high Chi-Square score (95%+) and a positive edge.

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Sorry that should say a high inverse Chi-Square score. If you use Excel's CHITEST it would be a score of 0.05 or less (5% or less). I like look at the inverse

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Yes, I seem to remember that one!

LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB