DONCASTER HANDICAP 1600M - Randwick Sat 19th April

1 DEFIER Guy Walter 58
2 LONHRO John Hawkes 57.5
3 SHOGUN LODGE Bob Thomsen 57
4 EXCELLERATOR Gai Waterhouse 55.5
5 FIELDS OF OMAGH Tony McEvoy 55
6 DASH FOR CASH Rick Hore-Lacy 54.5
7 CRAWL John Hawkes 54
8 ROYAL CODE David Hall 54
9 HOEBERG (NZ) David Payne 53.5
10 LORD ESSEX John Hawkes 53.5
11 PLATINUM SCISSORS Gai Waterhouse 53.5
12 SCENIC PEAK Danny J Bougoure 53.5
13 HA HA Gai Waterhouse 53
14 UMRUM Leon Macdonald 53
15 GORDO John Hawkes 52.5
16 KINGSGATE Gai Waterhouse 52.5
17 CARAEL BOY Bob Milligan 51.5
18 EMISSION Cliff Brown 51.5
19 THIS MANSHOOD Tim Martin 51.5
20 ZVEZDA (NZ) Kay Lane 51.5
21 BOREALE John Hawkes 51
22 CORPORATE BRUCE H S Mc Laren 51
23 MAKYBE DIVA (GB) David Hall 51
24 MISS ZOE Les Bridge 51
25 DESERT SKY Mathew Ellerton 50.5
26 EVANDER John Hawkes 50.5
27 MANNER HILL Gai Waterhouse 50.5
28 MR. LOFTY (NZ) David Hall 50.5
29 SNOWLAND Gai Waterhouse 50.5
30 BENARRIVO (NZ) Bart Cummings 50
31 CHAIRMAN'S CHOICE Ray Naylor 50
32 COGNAC TRADER Bart Cummings 50
33 GAMESMAN Gai Waterhouse 50
34 GRAND ARMEE Gai Waterhouse 50
35 GRAND CITY Gai Waterhouse 50
36 HOSANNAH John Hawkes 50
37 LA BELLA DAME Mick Price 50
38 LAZZAZ (NZ) John O'Shea 50
39 LITTLEWOOD LANE Geni Gillis 50
40 LOVELY JUBLY Jason Deamer 50
41 ON A HIGH John O'Shea 50
42 SALGADO John Hawkes 50
43 STATESMANSHIP (NZ) Gai Waterhouse 50
44 SWISS ECHO Gai Waterhouse 50
45 THORN PARK Bob Thomsen 50
46 TO BE FAIR Graeme Rogerson 50
47 GENTLE GENIUS Tony Wildman 49.5
48 PURPLE GROOVE (NZ) Tony Noonan 49.5
49 BIN DANCIN (NZ) Kathy Hughes 49
50 CLANGALANG Gerald Ryan 49
51 GWEN'S RULES (NZ) Frank Ritchie 49
52 MOON DRAGON Guy Walter 49
53 NATURAL BLITZ Doug Harrison 49
54 AL MEGDAM Gai Waterhouse 48.5
55 BRECON ROSE (NZ) Gai Waterhouse 48.5
56 BRIEF EMBRACE Peter G Moody 48.5
57 CHARLIE BUB (NZ) Gary Portelli 48.5
58 CIVICS Bradley Marzato 48.5
59 GRAND JUROR Gary Portelli 48.5
60 LADY CAY Grahame Begg 48.5
61 SHOVOFF Clarry Conners 48.5
62 STANFORD Gai Waterhouse 48.5
63 STELLA REGALE John Morish 48.5
64 TAKAS John Hawkes 48.5
65 SHOWER OF ROSES (NZ) Gai Waterhouse 47.5
66 CURVY GIRL (NZ) Graeme Rogerson 47
67 DUBAI ICE Tony McEvoy 47

Prices at: 07:17:35, 13 Apr 2003 NSWTAB

No. Selection Win Place
219 Lonhro $3.50 $1.60
153 Defier $4.75 $1.90
306 Thorn Park $6.50 $2.35
182 Gordo $9.00 $3.00
167 Excellerator $13.00 $4.00
183 Grand Armee $13.00 $4.00
151 Dash for Cash $15.00 $4.50
283 Shogun Lodge $15.00 $4.50
118 Boreale $21.00 $6.00
235 Miss Zoe $21.00 $6.00
280 Scenic Peak $21.00 $6.00
323 This Manshood $21.00 $6.00
220 Lord Essex $26.00 $7.25
223 Lovely Jubly $26.00 $7.25
273 Royal Code $26.00 $7.25
130 Carael Boy $34.00 $9.25
147 Crawl $34.00 $9.25
188 Ha Ha $34.00 $9.25
193 Hoeberg $34.00 $9.25
195 Hosannah $34.00 $9.25
322 Shower of Roses $34.00 $9.25
211 Kingsgate $41.00 $11.00
114 Benarrivo $51.00 $13.50
236 Moon Dragon $51.00 $13.50
137 Chairman's Choice $67.00 $17.50
138 Charlie Bub $67.00 $17.50
177 Gentle Genius $67.00 $17.50
250 On a High $67.00 $17.50
258 Platinum Scissors $67.00 $17.50
264 Purple Groove $67.00 $17.50
278 Salgado $67.00 $17.50
142 Clangalang $101.00 $26.00
143 Cognac Trader $101.00 $26.00
156 Desert Sky $101.00 $26.00
163 Emission $101.00 $26.00
165 Evander $101.00 $26.00
245 Natural Blitz $101.00 $26.00
101 Al Megdam $126.00 $32.25
145 Corporate Bruce $126.00 $32.25
214 La Bella Dame $126.00 $32.25
290 Snowland $126.00 $32.25
321 Zvezda $126.00 $32.25
116 Bin Dancin $151.00 $38.50
122 Brief Embrace $151.00 $38.50
150 Curvy Girl $151.00 $38.50
184 Grand City $151.00 $38.50
186 Gwen's Rules $151.00 $38.50
216 Lazzaz $151.00 $38.50
229 Makybe Diva $151.00 $38.50
230 Manner Hill $151.00 $38.50
239 Mr. Lofty $151.00 $38.50
292 Stanford $151.00 $38.50
293 Statesmanship $151.00 $38.50
301 Takas $151.00 $38.50
312 Umrum $151.00 $38.50
121 Brecon Rose $156.00 $39.75
141 Civics $201.00 $51.00
160 Dubai Ice $201.00 $51.00
215 Lady Cay $201.00 $51.00
218 Littlewood Lane $201.00 $51.00
176 Gamesman $251.00 $63.50
185 Grand Juror $251.00 $63.50
285 Shovoff $251.00 $63.50
294 Stella Regale $251.00 $63.50
308 To Be Fair $251.00 $63.50

Prices at: 11:08:20, 14 Apr 2003 NSWTAB

No. Selection Win Place
219 Lonhro $3.50 $1.60
153 Defier $4.75 $1.90
306 Thorn Park $6.50 $2.35
182 Gordo $9.00 $3.00
167 Excellerator $13.00 $4.00
183 Grand Armee $13.00 $4.00
151 Dash for Cash $15.00 $4.50
283 Shogun Lodge $15.00 $4.50
235 Miss Zoe $21.00 $6.00
223 Lovely Jubly $26.00 $7.25
280 Scenic Peak $26.00 $7.25
118 Boreale $34.00 $9.25
130 Carael Boy $34.00 $9.25
147 Crawl $34.00 $9.25
220 Lord Essex $34.00 $9.25
188 Ha Ha $51.00 $13.50
195 Hosannah $51.00 $13.50
236 Moon Dragon $51.00 $13.50
264 Purple Groove $51.00 $13.50
273 Royal Code $51.00 $13.50
177 Gentle Genius $67.00 $17.50
211 Kingsgate $67.00 $17.50
216 Lazzaz $67.00 $17.50
250 On a High $67.00 $17.50
137 Chairman's Choice $101.00 $26.00
138 Charlie Bub $101.00 $26.00
156 Desert Sky $101.00 $26.00
163 Emission $101.00 $26.00
165 Evander $101.00 $26.00
258 Platinum Scissors $101.00 $26.00
322 Shower of Roses $101.00 $26.00
323 This Manshood $101.00 $26.00
114 Benarrivo $126.00 $32.25
143 Cognac Trader $126.00 $32.25
145 Corporate Bruce $126.00 $32.25
278 Salgado $126.00 $32.25
101 Al Megdam $151.00 $38.50
116 Bin Dancin $151.00 $38.50
121 Brecon Rose $151.00 $38.50
122 Brief Embrace $151.00 $38.50
142 Clangalang $151.00 $38.50
184 Grand City $151.00 $38.50
186 Gwen's Rules $151.00 $38.50
214 La Bella Dame $151.00 $38.50
229 Makybe Diva $151.00 $38.50
230 Manner Hill $151.00 $38.50
239 Mr. Lofty $151.00 $38.50
245 Natural Blitz $151.00 $38.50
290 Snowland $151.00 $38.50
292 Stanford $151.00 $38.50
293 Statesmanship $151.00 $38.50
301 Takas $151.00 $38.50
312 Umrum $151.00 $38.50
321 Zvezda $151.00 $38.50
141 Civics $201.00 $51.00
150 Curvy Girl $201.00 $51.00
160 Dubai Ice $201.00 $51.00
215 Lady Cay $201.00 $51.00
218 Littlewood Lane $201.00 $51.00
176 Gamesman $251.00 $63.50
185 Grand Juror $251.00 $63.50
285 Shovoff $251.00 $63.50
294 Stella Regale $251.00 $63.50
308 To Be Fair $251.00 $63.50
193 Hoeberg Suspended Suspended

What a field!

There are some horses a huge overs which are capable of causing a boilover, but at this stage I'll be sticking with Lonhro.

Bin Dancing should be 500/1!
Lovely Jubly should be 50/1.


[ This Message was edited by: Chrome Prince on 2003-04-14 15:19 ]

Early thoughts -

Looking at those currently at $34 or under, the following appear to me as good value


Gordo $9.00 $3.00
Excellerator $13.00 $4.00
Shogun Lodge $15.00 $4.50
Miss Zoe $21.00 $6.00
Crawl $34.00 $9.25


A quick look at some of those above $34, like the odds on offer for-

Royal Code $51.00 $13.50 & This Manshood $101.00 $26.0

Just read that Royal Code is an unlikely starter, may run in All-Aged Stakes the following week.

This is a two horse race.It is irrevelant where they draw at the barrier.Given there are a couple of up and comers in the race,notably Thorn Park and Gordo,who in my humble opinion will go on to better things,I really don't think anything else is capable of beating Lohnro or Defier.Luck in running and the best ride on the day will decide the outcome.The others will be going around for the minor prizemoney.Took 7/1 Lohnro some time back,so my pocket goes with him,and I also think he is a superstar in the making.However,Defier has had the wood on him three times out of four,and they both have a brilliant turn of foot,and are capable of running some incredibly fast final sectionals,so who knows!!Bring it on,I can't wait!!

No. Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight
1 DEFIER Guy Walter C Munce 58
2 LONHRO John Hawkes D Beadman 57.5
3 SHOGUN LODGE Bob Thomsen H Bowman 57
4 EXCELLERATOR Gai Waterhouse J Cassidy 55.5
5 DASH FOR CASH Rick Hore-Lacy D Nikolic 54.5
6 CRAWL John Hawkes R M Quinn 54
7 SCENIC PEAK Danny J Bougoure G Childs 53.5
8 GORDO John Hawkes C Brown 52.5
9 CARAEL BOY Bob Milligan S Seamer 51.5
10 GRAND ARMEE Gai Waterhouse D Beasley 51.5 1.5
11 BOREALE John Hawkes D Gauci 51
12 CORPORATE BRUCE Hec McLaren 51
13 MISS ZOE Les Bridge C Carmody 51
14 CHAIRMAN'S CHOICE Ray Naylor R McLeod 50
15 COGNAC TRADER Bart Cummings D McLellan 50
16 THORN PARK Bob Thomsen G Boss 50
17 GENTLE GENIUS Tony Wildman T Jones 49.5
18 PURPLE GROOVE (NZ) Tony Noonan K McEvoy 49.5

Where's the speed?

Doesn't seem to be any noted frontrunners to generate the pace? Expect Carael Boy, Dash For Cash, Grand Armee, Scenic Peak to be in the first few. All of these are drawn midfield and may go forward. I would expect Beadman to try to be reasonbly close on Lonhro from gate 6, like last time, so heaven help the rest of them if they stand him up a start.

I'm not really interested in races like this. I agree with what was in Punt to Win today. The winners are the bookies, TABs, owners, trainers and jockeys of the horses that get some of the prizemoney. The losers are the punters. The handicapper has evened up the field. There are at least 10 serious winning chances - all will probably be well under their true winning odds. Bad luck is often the winner of this race.