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AUSTRALIAN HORSERACING (Sydney & Melbourne)

Tips for Saturday 10 May 2003, for the Friedman Family Outsiders.

Martin's tips are marked (*M)
Carol's tips are marked (*C)
Zev's tips are marked (*Z)

Sydney (Rosehill):
race 3, #3 Southern Rose (*M), #8 Stratica (*C), #9 Ghuroob (*Z)
race 4, #10 Ikebana (*M), #3 Bois (*C), #12 Pilsener (*Z)
race 6, #8 Araluen Star (*M), #9 Azzam Valley (*C), #13 Nordic Emperor (*Z)
race 7, #10 Inclusion (*M), #12 Arrabeea (*C), #11 Sportsbrat (*Z)

Melbourne (Moonee Valley):
race 1 (Steeple), #7 William (*M), #3 Corker's Boy (*C), #2 Built Him (*Z)
race 5, #13 The Mooksta (*M), #10 Participate (*C), #3 St Christoph (*Z)
race 6, #2 Prince Benbara (*M), #8 Command The Wind (*C), #6 Special Scene (*Z)
race 7, #5 British Buska (*M), #7 Storm Edition (*C), #6 Eric (*Z)
race 8, #7 Archmobile (*M), #1 Franjelica (*C), #12 Queen Carey (*Z)

Cheers,
Martin
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RESULTS: AUSTRALIAN HORSERACING (Sydney & Melbourne)

Saturday 10 May 2003, for the Friedman Family Outsiders

Not a good day!

Zev:
Sydney race 6, #13 Nordic Emperor - 2nd @ 16/1
Sydney race 7, #11 Sports Brat - 3rd @ 30/1
Melbourne race 5, #3 St Chrisoph - 3rd @ 10/1

Carol:
Melbourne race 1, #3 Corker's Boy - 2nd @ 13/1
Melbourne race 5, #10 Participate - 4th @ 11/1

Martin:
Sydney race 3, #3 Southern Rose - 4th @ 16/1
...

Having looked at these selections for a long time win betting them does not appeal to me. But I have selectively used some at big odds in tris./first fours and got good value.

Outsiders, due to their nature, are by default each way bets, NOT win only bets!

Cheers

G'day Martin, Logic

This is an interesting part of betting...something saturated with as much myth as fact.

I don't believe longshots are by default each way bets....thats a myth perpetuated by the false comfort of more collects from each way betting than other approaches. Each way betting would be the worst possible way to bet long shots....in fact its the worst way to bet any set of selections (from a profit making perspective that is :smile:

You are much better of staking 2 horses to win than you are 1 horse each way. Alternatively betting place only can be worthwhile depending on the selections....but each way should be a no-no for every punter.

Using your selections for the past 5 weeks as an example Martin, I quickly went through my results database using the best of SP or NSW TAB for win div's and the NSW tab for place div's.

In total for the past 5 weeks there have been 154 selections for 5 winners (3.2%) and 30 places (19.5%)

Betting Win Only:
Outlay $154.00
Return $80.10
Loss $73.90

Betting Place Only:
Outlay $154.00
Return $127.30
Loss $26.70

Betting Each Way:

Outlay $308
Return $207.40
Loss $100.60

Based on this each way betting certainly shows to be the worse way to bet the4 Friedman Family selection with a loss of about $100, v's a loss of $74 for win only and just $26.70 for place only.

Granted the sample is only 154 selections and one good week betting horses at this price range can largely change the figures....but one thing is for certain, each way betting will never return as much profit or as small a loss as other, much smarter betting strategies.

Osulldj,

It isn't reasonable to compare $1 win or $1 place with $1 each way as the each way betting is therefore risking twice as much. If you compare $1 win with $1 place or 50c each way (so each option is risking $1 total) then in your sample the each way would actually show a $50.30 loss (so half way between the win loss and place loss as you would expect).

For a longer term look at the Friedman Family selections you can have a look at the tipping competition results: http://www.tlcbc.com.au/tipping.htm

There is 13 weeks of results for all three family members there. Based on those results you would have to say you would be best backing for place only but you would need to be a bit more selective as backing all selections would give a loss.

__________________
"Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson

Thank you to all involved in this discussion.

Both of you are correct for the periods undertaken.

However, it must be said that the past 3-4 months results for the Friedman Family have been the worst on record, and to tell the truth, have in fact been absolutely disastrous!

We have been participating in on-line tipping competitions (some free, some not)held by numerous racing message boards over the past 4 years (at least 5 competitions per year), and outside of the last 3-6 months, either Zev or Carol or I have been placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd, out of 50-100 odd participants, in every single competition by taking each way bets only. For the first 2 years, several interested parties kept records and all but one came up with the same results - that the each way bets produced a greater percentage of profit than either win-only or place-only.

However,to be fair, that was then, and now is now - wow, what an unbelievable statement!

Also, as has been obvious recently, the percentage of winners have dropped drastically to what it used to be, yet placegetters have remained around the same. Under those circumstances, one would think that place-betting was the way to go.

Nevertheless, we are hoping that this slump in the number or outsider winners is only temporary and that the glory days will soon return.

Cheers,
Martin

Stick with it Martin, things will eventually turn around, they always do!