Quite a lot is spoken about False Favourites on this forum and elsewhere. If you are laying your picks this is most important. Conversely, it is surely also important if you are trying to back a winner to try to discern the False Favourites.

Collectively can we come up with a few thoughts on this subject :???:

What do you see as the indicators of a False Favourite?

I can offer up two criteria for picking false faves.

1. Horses racing first up from a spell are a risk no matter what it's past first up record is like.

2. Horses rising in class (race prizemoney) are often false favourites unless the rest of the field are also all rising in class.

someone else mentioned that a horse not racing within 100 metres of the distance last start, can indicate a false fav. but I would add, "OR" be a distance winner

Statistically speaking, whether a horse won at the distance or on the track is quite insignificant and does not have any relationship to longterm profit or success.

I know quite a few punters that concentrate on distance and track, but the figures do not reflect major importance.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 422,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/07/2025
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Along similar lines to EI (oops) I mean Chrome Prince. Horses that start fav after a good run first up often fail to repeat or improve second up.

__________________
Ta me go maith

Hi all,

Statistically there are a few indicators that can highlight favourites that win and return less than the average of all favourites. I will run some numbers through my database for the last 4 years and attempt to post some of them over the next few days.

However knowledge of these statistics won't allow you to necessarily profit from them.

Each race and indeed favourite is unique and needs to be treated as such. You need to look and find things that others don't know or tend to discount. Everyone can read the stats.

My own speed and pace figures are my personal tool for finding false favourites.

2YO's and early 3YO's are the horses hyped more than any in the media and betting markets and I find they offer me the best opportunities.

Last Saturday my figures identified Windy Kate at Doomben while having a good chance was no odds on favourite, while Sir Success had a good chance and was at double figure odds in a 6 or 7 horse field....lay Windy Kate on Betfair and back Sir Success at $14...win/win. Prior to that was the Sires Produce where Untouchable was much hyped...my figures showed he only had an outside chance. A few weeks prior to that was the overrated Niello sent out at a prohibitive odds on favourite in the race won by Exceed and Excel...another successful lay.

I Will post some stats on favourites with different form factors over the next couple of days and hopefully they provide some interesting insights.

Hi all,

Metro favourites for the last 4 years by:

SPELL COUNT

SC SR% POT%
======================
0 29.80% -15.20%
1 30.80% -13.60%
2 31.40% -10.20%
3 30.90% -11.20%
4 28.60% -14.90%
5 28.00% -15.10%
6 27.40% -17.90%
7 29.40% -4.10%
8 28.80% -7.60%
9 26.30% -13.60%

The numbers go on further but the sample sizes are too small.

The same favourites by BARRIER

Barrier SR% POT%
======================
1 32.60% -7.60%
2 31.20% -9.80%
3 29.40% -18.40%
4 29.20% -16.80%
5 31.40% -10.40%
6 32.70% -8.60%
7 27.90% -19.80%
8 28.00% -15.80%
9 27.90% -11.80%
10 28.70% -9.10%
11 28.30% -3.80%
12 24.20% -14.90%
13 23.90% -11.60%
14 25.00% -1.00%
15 11.90% -45.00%
16 24.00% -36.00%

By AGE

Age SR% POT%
======================
2 33.70% -16.20%
3 31.40% -11.90%
4 29.70% -10.50%
5 26.10% -17.10%
6 27.10% -7.20%
7 20.90% -19.90%
8 17.30% -41.70%
9 10.50% -75.30%
10 40.00% 6.00%

By LAST START FIN POS

FP SR% POT%
======================
FS 31.00% -17.30%
1 32.30% -11.50%
2 29.50% -14.20%
3 28.50% -12.80%
4 27.60% -14.30%
5 29.10% -10.10%
6 28.50% -8.40%
7 26.50% -11.40%
8 26.80% -13.60%
9 25.70% -7.00%
10 23.60% -21.60%
11 34.70% 10.20%
12 24.40% -14.80%
13 25.50% -24.50%

The numbers go on but sample sizes are small. FS = First starters.

Chrome Prince, how ya going buddy,

I agree totally with your view on eliminating false favourites by use of the "class" factor. In fact, I would strongly recommend, as an initial filter, to eliminate any pre-post favourite rising in class and field strength. This should improve your winning percentage markedly. Remember, as a percentage punter, like me, if you can eliminate a false(or media hyped) favourite you can then create a dutch-book and back numerous other starters.
It is definitely "food for thought."

Cheers.

Yeah it's relevant when talking about favourites and false favourites, however, if you're looking at longshots - there's plenty of horses with outstanding form which rise in class and field strength to win at big odds.

You just got to identify value.

osulldj,

Thanks for the interesting figures - makes you wary of favourites. Can I just ask what is a spell count?

radar