I wrote this in the other thread, this will probably get moderated or closed too but I hope it doesn't because it would seriously diminish my interest in posting here again. Surely were able to have a discussion around ratings without there being a side show?

Pretty much agree with everything said in the other thread, I've hardly been posting lately, continue to read but there hasn't been many threads worthy of much discussion. This thread was one I was watching closely as a Ratings approach is something I'm personally interested in given one's ability to bring information into Excel quite easily and manipulate as you wish.

I think the thing to understand with ratings is that yes a paid one might produce 24% SR and an unpaid source may be 26% SR, but that is only one side of the cube. I say cube because there are so many more elements to take into consideration (I think) when looking at ratings or selections. Surely you have to take into account the POT (the 24% ratings may select longer horses and be profitable while the 26% ratings may be mainly favourites and have a LOT). I also would've thought drawdown needs to be considered as well, not to mention does a small number of high odds horses make up majority of the return or a large number of small odds horses showing greater consistency?

I don't think R2W are obliged to provide ratings that are profitable on every single race or some type of tip or selections that are profitable. If you purchase their service, you know what your buying and getting yourself into. Their offering is meant to assist you in becoming profitable, not turn you into an A grader overnight, and you should understand this when becoming a client, same as any service offered with regards to horse racing or even the stock market. If you dont do your own due diligence and understand where your money is going and what your getting in return then that is solely on your own shoulders.

I think the top rater on the ratings i've put together myself so far is about 21% which some here would scoff at. But that top rater is only very slightly at a LOT on the races I rate. Add in one or two basic filters and that top rater becomes profitable - at tatts odds too i might add so best tote or betfair makes this even more so.

Ratings can have their place, but you have to understand how to use them and not expect the keys to the castle just by blindly following a rating. Hence why what garyf posts should be read over and over with regards to picking the right races, right conditions and right ratings to use, if you also get the right price on top of that then your well ahead of most others.

Please discuss YOUR ratings which is the thread topic you used.

Public criticism of Moderation is NOT acceptable.

There is a Ratings2Win Forum.

Please discuss Ratings2Win there.

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Hi evajb001

I hope I am not putting your thread into jeopardy with my agreeing to what you are saying and if I am out of line please do not hesitate to say so.

I totally agree with what you and garyf had said. No problem with that.

I go about my successful betting and merely look to paid ratings (of which there are many) for support to what I am doing.

I agree with you that any fool who thinks they can become a "millionaire" by backing suggested ratings either paid or not will certainly go broke very quickly.

Over my many years on this forum i have spent a lot of my time not only developing ratings but writing excel sheets to access the much needed information from the net to assist in getting the ratings to work.

I truly believe everything you need is out there at no cost and what you are actually paying for is there ability to put all the information together and do a large part of the work for you.

My type of ratings have always worked best on open type races so i stick mostly to those, yes i could rate every race but one of the first things i learned in racing is yes you can win at punting but you can't win at every race and the more races you lose the harder it becomes.

Honestly strike rate means squat specially when we are talking a few percentage point POT is the important factor, this last month i have been constantly getting 40+% SR for top 2 but because a lot have been favs the profits have not been huge and a large portion of profit came from bigger priced winners, today i only hit 4 from 16 races yet made 25%POT

It is how you use the ratings that can make the difference, i bet win only top 2 selections but i know at least one person that uses them in exotics and i always think of him when both fill placings.

__________________
One Drive

"If the corporates are treating you poorly , just go elsewhere."
"If they need you , they will soon find out."
"If you need them , you will soon find out." --moeee
_______________________________________________

Quick complain of the day, Internet was down here last night so couldn't update my records for the 2nd main race day for my ratings of the week - not happy.

Back to Shaun's post, basically agree with everything you'd said, I don't even bother looking at races that are essentially Class 3 or below and don't touch anything thats 2YO or 3YO restricted. Also don't generally look at races if all runners haven't had 4 or more starts and don't touch maiden's either.

People would be surprised what they find hidden in this forum and elsewhere in terms of what works and/or doesn't work. Then if you take the time to find one of Shaun's spreadsheet's and adapt it (if you want) you'd again be surprised what you can do. I basically grabbed one of Shaun's sheets and used the code to bring in not only the info he was already using but ratings/info from other sites as well. My sheet looks nothing like Shaun's now but I wouldn't have been able to do it without his original sheet.

Anyhow next point is totally agree with the strike rate comments as well. If your solely basing your judgement of ratings or a system or selection process on the strike rate it achieves then your well off the mark, and thats coming from a guy who isn't even consistently profitable yet.

You can't tell me you'd be happy going to a casino and winning 50% of your hands but losing money instead of winning 40% of your hands and winning money, so why is horse racing any different? Seems pretty logical to me, you bet to win money, you don't bet to simply win lots of bets.

I'd suggest that some of the best betting is if you can pick anything at odds of $5+ with a decent strike rate and use betfair simply because you get more value on longer odds horses on there and it can really make a difference to your bottom line.

I think some people would be surprised how profitable you can make basic free ratings from the most public of sites only betting on the quality races and using some simple filters. It's not difficult to do, its just a matter of keeping records and actually putting in the effort to do it.

That's the reason i posted so much was that people could look at what i have done and learn from it, even the simple stuff like looking up from a table or extracting the exact data you need from a bunch of data, i am no coder by any means but you spend long enough doing this stuff you do learn, plus lots of help from a coder on the Gruss forum that gave me the code to make things run fast and smooth, in the past i excluded my actual ratings from some sheets but because it evolves all the time i can't post up every change, although there are sheets out there with the ratings still on them.

If any one wants to learn the basics look up the post on my web development topic.

__________________
One Drive

"If the corporates are treating you poorly , just go elsewhere."
"If they need you , they will soon find out."
"If you need them , you will soon find out." --moeee
_______________________________________________

It may have been easier for me to pick up given I was already comfortable with Excel functions due to using it extensively in Uni and at work. However I didn't have much idea with how the macro's work although with enough trial and error plus having some knowledge on developing websites I picked it up pretty quick on how to adjust and use on new websites etc.

I'm always happy to help people put together equations etc within excel to help them do what they want (if I know how) but its also up to them to at least make some effort to work it out themselves as well.

I wasn't going to continue much with this thread due to various reasons popping up in the last weeks or so but if I get some time on my lunch break i'll post some stats i've got based on the data i've collected over the last month or so since I started recording my own ratings. They've helped me bet profitably over the last 3 or so weeks.

Here are some stats for interests sake, note its on a small sample size so far since i've been keeping records.

Free Ratings 1:
No Filters
167 Races
Top Rater = 24.0% SR 1.4% LOT
2nd Rater = 21.0% SR 25.39% POT

2 Race Filters
118 Races
Top Rater = 24.6% SR 5.5% POT
2nd Rater = 23.7% SR 52.8% POT

My Own Speed Rating
167 Races
Top Rater = 17.4% SR 10.1% POT
2nd Rater = 19.2% SR 4.2% LOT

2 Race Filters
100 Races
Top Rater = 21.0% SR 38.0% POT
2nd Rater = 19.0% SR 6.6% POT

My Own Full Rating
167 Races
Top Rater = 21.6% SR 10.7% LOT
2nd Rater = 13.2% SR 32.3% LOT

2 Selection Filters
Top Rater = 33.9% SR 27.4% POT (62 Selections)
2nd Rater = 50.0% SR 128.0% POT (10 Selections)
Note the above for 2nd rater isn't very realistic and these filters are based around simply making the top rater bettable

My Version of Shaun's Rating
167 Races
Top Rater = 22.8% SR 7.1% LOT
2nd Rater = 14.4% SR 23.8% LOT

2 Selection Filters
Top Rater = 47.1% SR 10.8% POT (51 Selections)
2nd Rater = 31.8% SR 0.2% LOT (22 Selections)
Note for my version of Shaun's ratings his 3rd selection is actually quite profitable with 1 selection filter as per following:
3rd Rater = 19.3% SR 16.0% POT (88 Selections)

My Rating of Ratings (Combination of rating sources)
167 Races
Top Rater = 22.2% SR 17.9% LOT
2nd Rater = 22.8% SR 14.9% POT

2 Selection Filters
Top Rater = 36.5% SR 3.4% POT (74 Selections)
2nd Rater = 43.9% SR 15.1% POT (41 Selections)

Now obviously the above are all small sample sizes and don't really count for much at the moment but you must also remember all my prices are recorded with Tatts odds. So if you take best of tote or betfair prices and there is a solid chance most of the above are improved by another 5-10% POT. None of the above ratings sources were hard to find, put together or record its just a matter of doing it. There's also one filter i've found that seems to improve almost any selections I apply it too, and it wasn't that hard to find either.

Bit of effort is all it takes.

Or you can keep it real simple.

6,841 UK races
Take the top rated (favourite) an hour before the race start.
2,279 winners
Strike Rate 33.31%
Return 6,816.49

Take BFSP on those favourites
Return 6,932.27
Of course this would be a loss after commission.

Take BFSP and stipulate that the price MUST be greater than the price an hour before the start.
That gives 3,582 races
1,008 winners
Strike Rate 28.14%
Return $3,717.51

Again commission would erode most of the profit.

However, once we go down the ratings, up in price, the same pattern emerges, the strike rate drops, however, the POT increases exponentially to outgun commission.

There are ways to use this information to greater benefit rather than straight out backing, because one can reduce liability to grow profits.

__________________
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