Evening All

I'm going out on a limb but these are my selections, I'm a good judge but a shocking punter.

Caufield Cup: Shower of Roses

Cox Plate: Private Steer

Melbourne Cup: Pentastic

Whoever beats these horses in their respective races will win!

Cheers

Caulfield Cup Sound Action/Republic Lass
Cox Plate Lohnro
Melbourne Cup Honor Babe/Pillage n' Plunder

Have a good one

i know there isn't much for lonhro to beat in the cox plate, but does anyone think he can;

1. handle moonee valley.
2. run a strong 2000m
3. sustain a run for longer than 400m
4. go with the field at the school.
5. stay on the bit.
6. race on the pace over 2000m.

i love the black flash. i backed him in the blue diamond and the guineas when a fair price was actually bet about him but i dont think his racing pattern suits the cox plate or the valley over 2000m.

anyone agree/disagree. must be some of both. i'm interested to hear.

cheers umrum

Hi Umrum,
Everyone has a different opinion of Lonhro, they tend to say "he hasn't beaten much" or "it suited him" or quote his one run in the Cox Plate.
The bottom line is John Hawkes has done a brilliant job of placing him best where he can and does win.
To me: He is a champ!

In answer to your question:
1. I think he can handle Moonee Valley.
The track was not the reason for his defeat.

2.The biggest question is can he run the distance. He probably can now as he is 12 months older and more mature, but this is the biggest question mark in my opinion.
I wouldn't be taking short odds on him.

3. Sustaining a run for longer than 400m - I think Lonhro is a great middle distance horse but we are in dangerous territory beyond his proven distances.

4. Go with the field at the school, depends largely on how the race is run.
Last year they knew it would be a battle of Sunline vs Northerly and I suspect tactics had a large part to do with his defeat.
Yes, he lost by a long margin, but the tactics and way he was ridden did NOT suit his style.
Last year their only hope was if Lonhro could somehow come over the top of tiring horses, this was never going to happen, the way he was ridden.

I suspect they will never tackle a Cox Plate in this fashion again.
I.E. He will be ridden as suits him win lose or draw.

5&6 As Above.

Cheers.

cheers c.p

interesting comments. i too think lonhro is a champ. i dont think he is better than northerly but we wont get into that all over again. the two most worrying things for me are that last year he ran past fields of omagh then F.O.O ran back past lonhro in the last bit of the race. And i think the distance is a huge query. I think all of his 2000 metres runs have been on class rather than him handling the trip all that well.

when i said the track i more meant the tight circuit rather than the track surface itself

cheers
umrum

[ This Message was edited by: umrum on 2003-09-11 13:52 ]

Hi again Umrum,



I don't think he is either, but I still don't think his run in the Cox Plate reflected his true ability as he was ridden upside down.


Yes was a worry, but FOO was ridden according to his normal pattern of racing, Lonhro was not.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not suggesting he would have beaten Sunline or Northerly, but he wouldn't have been beaten by such a large margin in my opinion.


Agreed, but we'll find out soon enough. :wink:


So did I :wink:

good work chrome prince.
cheers

g'day fellas
love lonhro, but if fast pace up front [don't know who is /isn't running yet] he WILL NOT WIN. Now that's going out on a limb, you reckon?

Have to disagree with you there Umrum, the Yalumba Stakes last year was a great match race between the "Black Flash" and
the "Champion Mare" which was run over 2000m and was just outside the course record, if he could not handle the distance he definitely would not have won that race.

He also won the Queen Elizabeth on a dead track at Randwick beating Pentastic and Republic Lass.



The only other time he has run over that distance was of course last years Cox Plate and to be honest he did not handle the track whatsoever and has much as i love him he will not have my money on his back come Cox Plate day (prove me wrong buddy).

Cheers.

COX PLATE

LONHRO

REGARDS
WILLIAM