Hi there,

Just out of interest, I was wandering if anybody would like to share how they pick a winner and how seriously do you take form into account. I am also interested to know how many of you horse punters pick winners or big place payers by just sheer luck or a gut feeling.
I suppose I am looking for some good advice!
Thanks guys

G'day mystic,

To start your quest I would recommend you inspect "Form Pro"'s website.
It will highlight the potential chances in selected races and then you may wish to apply your own elimination rules from there.

Cheers.

fallback positions. dont bet horses that have a series of failures.
dont look for reversals from the above.
good horses fresh and reasonable price.
personally i only look for group and listed horses. i disregard all others. i know there is a risk particularly from up and coming horses. (archave today is an example)i will wait for them to qualify.
generally i dont back stayers fresh as the number that win first up is not profitable.
statistically speaking on using my type of selections
the percentage of winners over a 18month period of testing listed horses is.
within 8 weeks of last qualifying. 33%
of winners- up to 12 months of last qualifying date.= 80% ...two years = additional 15%. over two years additional 5%.
total number of winning races 1200.
above example indicates the depletion of ability as time goes on.
also defines the adage that most horses probably only have one or two good seasons.
the further away from that good season the less likely the horse is to win.
hope that is helpful.

I'm into avoiding what everyone else is doing,by that i mean things like rather than look for the best horse in a race i look for the horse that has done well recently but might have finished out of a place last start and therefor be at decent odds.

Other thoughts;

Young horses have the freshest legs=ignore horses with too many race starts.

The bigger the field size the better the average win divy.

The last 3 starts are all that really matters and almost all winners have run well at one of their last 3 starts.

The top 8 lines of pre post betting win about 90% of races why look at any other horses.

My advice (for what it's worth):

Don't chase the big odds runners unless you know what you are doing.

Don't dismiss short odds chances - there is more "value" there than you think. In my experience it takes a lot less work (and a lot less stress) to make a profit out of horses under $3.00 than the ones over that price!

Never rely on a loss chasing staking plan to make a profit.

Making a profit out of horse racing takes a lot of time and work - if you aren't willing to put the work in then either accept that you will probably lose money or only break even OR don't bet at all! (Alternatively pay someone to do the work for you BUT be very careful about who you pay!)

And above all remember:

"Be careful whose advice you buy, but be patient with those who supply it. Advice is a form of nostalgia. Dispensing it is a way of fishing the past from the disposal, wiping it off, painting over the ugly parts and recycling it for more than it's worth."
Mary Schmich - from the song Everybody's Free to Wear Sunscreen (some very good advice in that song!)

__________________
"Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson

Becareful,

I notice you have recently turned upside down your previous methods? If I recall correctly you used to bet double figure odds predominately and now its the shorties.
Is this change due to the lower disadvantage inherent in these price ranges, strike rates (avoiding losing streaks!) or other. I completelty respect ones right to alter their methods, hopefully after appropriate analysis, but would just be interested to know the reasons why.

thekey

PS please disregard this if I am completely off the mark in my inital observation.

Thekey,

You are correct. Last year I basically concentrated on midweek races and focused on the $7.00 to $15.00 price range. I did make a profit from it but it was:

1. Hard work!
2. Inconsistant - there were some really fantastic weeks but also some horrible weeks so a bit of an emotional roller coaster.
3. Due to the amount of work involved I was spending huge amounts of time but not earning enough to make a living.

At the time the last point was not a huge issue as I was only working part time and looking after the kids, etc, but this year with the kids off to school I had to go back to working more hours it was impractical to continue. (I sort of consider last year to be my "apprenticeship" for serious punting - I learnt a LOT, did a lot of hard work, had some fun and came out ahead)

Due to my work committments I decided that focusing on a Saturday only approach was better so went back to the drawing board (well actually the keyboard) and started looking for alternatives because my previous approach had never shown much promise for Saturday racing (at least not for the metro venues). For the first half of this year I actually did very little betting on the races and most of my punting was on the Tennis (very profitable).

Once I got past that "only mugs bet on favourites" myth I discovered that the short end of the market had some great promise - the old longshot bias means instead of having to overcome a 15% disadvantage you are almost starting at a break-even point so making a profit is actually not as hard.

I now have 2 basic "systems" in operation. My best one only averages about 2-3 bets per Saturday and all of them start at under $3.00 on the TAB (although I often get a bit more using Divi+ or bookie prices) but the strike rate and consistancy are phenominal. The second system has a few more bets and some longer prices but very rare to have anything over about $7.00.

Now that I have got everything worked out it takes me only a few minutes each Saturday morning to work out the raw selections (the computer does most of the work) and then it is just a matter of reviewing the prices just before each race where I have selected a runner to see if the selection becomes a bet and if so whether to bet Divi+ or fixed odds.

_________________
"Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson

[ This Message was edited by: becareful on 2003-09-18 11:59 ]

I look for racing patterns. Looking at sites like Ozeform it gives you a great feel for when a horse reaches it peak after a spell.

I'm also a big fan of horse/jockey combinations, I know some people think this is overrated but I have had some great results looking at Win/Place %s with certain horses and jockeys.

Never ever change your tips when you go to the track, unless there is a major reason to do so. And never let the price of a horse change your thinking, if you think it is a good chance and it's at long odds, then all the better for you.

And last but not least, class is the key. Research into what you consider are false pre-race favourites by looking at the class of the horses and you'll find good value.

Good Punting,
ShoeIn

no set rules.

i like looking at finishing lengths. often horses get under the guard of punters when they run a close up 7th or 10th. good example was archave yesterday. previous start was 1.3 lengths behind fiery venture and grand armee and beat home defier and private steer.

Selection methods are many, all require research to suit your own comfort zone.


[ This Message was edited by: puntz on 2003-09-23 22:12 ]