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#1
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As requested by Lenny here is the system i sent into p.p.m. that appeared in their may 91 magazine,it's fairly simple to use and is based on the Sportsman's zip rating but could be used with any reliable ratings.
(1)Use the Sportsman form guide,note the Zipform rating for each horse in the race. (2)Add each horse's win% to the Zipform figure. (3)Add 10 points if the horse is trained by one of the states top 5 trainers. (4)Add 5 points if the horse is to be ridden by one of the states top 5 jockeys. (5)The horse with the highest total is the selection. (6)Do not bet on 2yo or maiden races. (7)A horse must have at least 4 starts to qualify and not be unbeaten. ------------------------------------------- Some suggestions for improvement; Make up your own list of jockeys and trainers. Convert the pre post odds into a % and add that to the final figure. Ignore jockeys and trainers and add an X factor like kgs under top weight to give the system a chance to produce a surprise result. Work out which races make the most money and if races with less than say 10 runners dont turn a profit ignore them,look at Q's and T's in races with 10 or more runners. Cheers,Dale. |
#2
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DALE.how did it perform over 12 months?.
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#3
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Hi Darkydog,i was too young and stupid to give it a good run and basicly it was too much work for a youngster,but over the first hundred races i tested it on it produced 36 winners and 56 place getters out of 100 bets for a pot of 30.35%,it then dropped off a bit and i lost faith but it does show promise and with a bit of tweaking it may produce the goods.
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#4
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DALE I CAN UNDERSTAND THAT.A FEW LOSERS AND WE PANIC.THATS WHY I PREFER TO BE OVERCAPITALIZED RATHER THAN UNDER.
THERES NOT A PROFFESSIONAL ALIVE THAT HASNT HAD HORRENDOUS RUNS OF OUTS. WHO KNOWS WITH A BIT OF TWEAKING HERE AND THERE IT COULD HAVE BEEN YOUR POT OF GOLD. CHEERS.DARKY. |
#5
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DALE.I AM GOING TO EXPERIMENT WITH IT AS A BASE THEN ADD THINGS LIKE .
WIZARD FIELD STRENGTH -20 to + 1.5 WT.RATING 91 -100 TIME RATING 92-100 BEATEN LENGTHS 1200 -1599( WITHIN 2 LENGTHS) 1600 -2000 (WITHIN 3 LENGTHS. ETC ETC. IF YOU CARE TO WORK WITH ME WITH A FEW IDEAS YOU CAN CONTACT ME AT ************************************************** WHO KNOWS WE JUST MIGHT COME UP WITH SOMETHING GOOD. |
#6
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Hi darkydog,i sent you an e-mail.
Anyone out there who uses the zipform ratings i'd be interested in how effective you think they are,any statistics would be great. |
#7
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DALE.DIDN,T RECIEVE THE EMAIL.
************************************************** |
#8
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Darky/Dale,
I use the Sportsman and find their Zip a good guide and use their top five as it usualy bags almost all of the winners. [Sydney last Sat. top zip won first five races]. I too am very interested in Dale's method. The idea of distance from winner last start Darky is better than 1,2,3,4 etc. Maybe, must not be comming down in weight more than say 2kg as well [?]. Trouble with a lot of systems is that they just lead to the published favorites. Dale's idea hopefuly will point out some winners that arn't just favorites. Using some of the [better] stats from the wizard sounds good, especialy trat. cheers. [ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-09-23 17:05 ] |
#9
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Darky,i sent another e-mail let me know if you got it,i'm having a bit of trouble with my e-mails at the moment,talk about frustrating lol.
Hi Crash,i now what you mean about a system spitting out the favorites,you definately need a way to get around it an x factor so to speak. How would the top 5 zip horses compare to the top 5 pre post horses? is there much difference? |
#10
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CRASH.I LIKE IT TOO.WITH A BIT OF TWEAKING IT MAY TURN OUT SOMETHING SPECIAL.
RE 1 2 3 4 LAST START I HAVE SPOKEN OVER THE YEARS WITH A COUPLE OF TOP PUNTERS(THE LATE IAN BARNES/PAUL SEGAR AND BOTH HAVE TOLD ME NOT TO GO PAST 4th LAST START AND WITH BEATEN LENGTHS 1200-1599 WITHIN 2 LENGTHS. 1600 - 2000 WITHIN 3 LENGTHS.IN THEIR OPINION BOTH = GOOD RACE. I TRUST THEIR OPINION. WARMEST REGARDS.DARKY. |
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