Read your article in PPM re converting Ratings to Prices, which myself have never really wet my feet in this subject.

I usually just use my head when looking for value on runners, but would be interested in any other information about this topic....Why must we set small fields to a market of around 70% and a large field to around 90%???

Cheers.

HI Testa,

It's actually the other way around...I suggested setting your market to different percentages based on the approach that you only price 4 or 5 runners. Id didn't recommend that you price the complete field to 90%.

If you are only pricing 4 or 5, then it is a mistake to set the market to 100%, that leaves 0% winning chance for the remaining runners which is wrong.

In a small field of 7-8 you may leave 5%-10% chance for the remaining runners so you should set the market for your 4 or 5 runners to about 90%.

In an average field of 12 runners you have about 7 horses left over so you should decided to leave 15% to 20% combined winning chance for those runners and price your 4 or 5 to 80%.

In effect your 5 runners add up to an 80% winning chance and the remaining 7 runners have a combined 20% winning chance.

Does that make sense?

Value is very much a subjective judgement, if you set prices they are only a guide. One way or another you need to have a feel for what is a fair v's unfair price for a horse you consider backing. The ability to make good decisions in this area and subsequently whether to bet or not bet is in my experience close to the most important skill in winning.

Hope that helps.

i may be way of the mark here i do understan what you are doing but to get accurate price you need to set market at about 115 like the bookies then take away your 20% and use this figure for your remaining horses

Shaun,

You were right....you are way off the mark.

Wasn't the whole point of setting your own prices to compare what you have with whats on offer....if they have thier market at say 115 and you have your at 100 you prices will always be lower because you don't have enough to go for....then you can price your 4 or 5 horses after takeing away your 20%

Makes perfect sense.

Thanks Osulldj and good article.

Cheers.

You're missing the point Shaun.

Punting is about VALUE. Value means the price you get for a horse is better than its chance of winning (however you work that out).

In reality the total of all horses equals a 100% chance of winning. Betting markets are set higher as they must contain a profit margin for the bookmaker / TAB.

If the total winning chance of all horses is 100%, why would you set your market to 115%. It's illogical and wrong.

Under any pricing approach to 100%, the only way you're prices will be lower for EVERY runner is if your opinion is largely the same as the market. In this instance you don't bet becase the price you obtain will be lower than each horses true winning chance.

However on many occasions your opinion will be different to the market and therefore you will find prices offered higher than your estimation of the horses winning chance. They are the times to bet. If your difference of opinion to the market is right enought times then you win, if its not you lose, simple.

As complex as racing is, the essence of winning comes down to this basic factor.

One of the best pieces of advice I can give anyone who wants to win is "only bet when you have an advantage". It doesn't matter how you work it out, whether its by pricing or whatever, but make sure you have an advantage and know what it is and why it exists before you bet.

Too many people have too many bets on horses they like and think will win, but in reality there is no advantage in betting. In the long run these bets will lose you money. We have to remember that from the start the market is stacked against us. Back every horse at $5 and you will lose. You have to be certain that the next horse you back at $5, should not be $5, it should in fact be $4.50 or $4 and the reasons why.

Making money is not just about backing winners. Its about betting on horses who are going to win more often than their price indicates, there is a big difference.

Ask yourself before you next place a bet, whats my advantage in backing this horse? Why do I think it has a better chance than the market suggests? IF you can't answer than then you probably shouldn't be betting in the race.

Most people spend time trying to find an approach to pick winners and thats why the elusive chase never ends. To win you need to concentrate on developing an approach that helps you find situations where value is created. Thats another thread though :smile:

Spot on Dan, here endeth the lesson.

Thank goodness Osulldj,

Great thread. I have been trying to explain on another thread the importance of learning to create a % [not odds] value for runners and the value that experienced subjectivity plays in determining the tools and results that win the punting war [not just a few battles].

Working out 'value' is the most important skill of all, not selection. Mechanical systems are just a small % of what is involved in Handicapping and getting that across [outside an XL spread-sheet] is a hard task.

Keep it going Osulldj.

Cheers.

G'day crash,

Subjective judgement or lets call it the 'art' of punting is what makes a winner.

Once you have worked out a race and your opinion on who you think can and can't win, then the game has only started. Handicapping is not even 50% of the requirements for winning in real life.