This is more of a strategy than a system. I tend to use it for fun bets when I'm late to a race and don't have time to look too closely at the field.

Again all data is extracted from the TABQ webpage.

Look for races where the Radio Tab tipsters have at least two runners from 1-4 in the top three picks.

Only consider runners 1-4.
Compare prices with the ratings.

You can bet with the certainty that a good proportion of winners and an even healthier proportion of placegetters are in this group.

If, in any given race, you think the winner is not in this group, then look for a value place bet.

Whether you find winners, placegetters or good each-ways is up to your judgement. Be prepared to back two or more runners from the group, but never the same amount on each. Always be prepared to pass a race.

A handy way to assess price/rating is as follows:

Subtract the rating for each horse from 100.
Take this as a price in dollars.
Eg. Rated 94 = 100 - 94 = 6 = $6
Therefore, pay attention to a runner rated 94 that is paying more than $6.
100, 99 and 98 should all be considered equivalent to $3, so in practise we start at 97.

Another proceedure:

Note the rating of the highest rated runner in the group (say, 100).

Note how many points below this each of the others are. (98 = 2 points below 100)

Now do the same with prices (rounded off to the dollar), starting with the highest rated (not lowest priced) runner.

What we are looking for are cases where a runner (say) two points below the highest rated horse is paying $3 or more above the highest rated runner.

Example:

Horse 1 = Rated 100
Horse 2 = Rated 94
Difference = 6

Horse 1 = $3
Horse 2 = $12
Difference = $9

Since Horse 2 is more than $6 above Horse 1 we detect evidence of value. Horse 2 is worth considering. If the ratings are right, the punters have missed it.

You can do this quickly with a bit of practise, especially if you narrow the field down to four (less scratchings).

A further strategy is to especially note the *second lowest* rated runner in the 1-4 group. You'll find some good winners and placegetters there.

The lowest rated runner in the group is unreliable and the highest rated often pays a poor price. The second lowest and second highest rated in the group is usually where you'll be able to extract value. But it is a fluid thing, different in each race.

Good punting.

Hermes

Here is a very quick way to find a bet when you have no time:

1. Any Handicap race [or better] anywhere.
2. Add PP odds plus weight or if possible SP price plus weight.
3. The lowest score is the bet.

Great time saver and you will always be on a good winning chance.

Cheers.

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-12-24 06:03 ]

Or another method when you don't have time to study the race properly ........ keep your money in your pocket! Guaranteed not to lose anything and there will always be another race when you do have more time. The "there is a race starting in five minutes and I need to find a bet" attitude is a sure sign of a losing punter. :smile:

__________________
"Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson

Thanks Crash. Neat.

Becareful, Hermes wrote:

"I tend to use this for FUN bets..."
"ALWAYS be prepared to pass a race..."

I think fun bets are important. All winning schemes require discipline and its much easier to remain disciplined if you permit yourself a fun bet outside your "system" - a flutter - from time to time. My golden rule, though, is only fun bets with the TABs money, not mine. If I have a good win one day and my bank is way up, I might have a stab at a few races I'd normally pass or races not included in my systems. I see it as practice anyway. If you employ only mechanical systems you never get better at quick responses to prices and values - which is a valuable skill for any punter.

Hermes

My quick way is add up the last 3 finished positions "0" and "X" =10 the lowest is your bet or you could use the last 3 beaten margins even better if you have a little more time