Well, hopefully I've established a sense of humour with my PPM system (Partypooper Plum Movers) But benieth that I am striving to make a living from the "punt"

I have two ideas on the go (seriously), both of which are showing a profit on Supertab, and that has been enhanced using best Fluctuation, but I am still doing "SOMETHING" wrong, I can't quite get to the stage where I am confident , and ask the pros. on this forum if they will annalise my investments say for 6 weeks or so (win or lose) any constructive comments are welcome.
My 3 win bets for tomorrow are as follows:

PR3- 3 Hartleys Dream
PR4-11 Thunderhawk
PR8-2 Prince of Vasac

Now, I had a bumper week last week so anything can happen I'm not suggesting that these are the best bets of the century, I merely invite any constructive comments (win or Lose) just so that I might gain some insight as to where I'm going wrong??

Just wondering Partypooper if those selections were from a handicapping effort or selections from a system ? The selections themselves suggest a system as Thunder Hawk [5 starts at the track for a lonely 3rd.] and even Harley's dream [taking on a horse having a decent class drop with ************ all wt. difference between them] does not suggest a handicapping effort [both will win for sure now I have said that]. Really can't say that much though as WA is not a betting ground I know.
One would then ask how you intend to bet them ? Has that been decided in advance before odds are know ? Have you set your own price that will influence your decision on bet amount or bet/no bet ? There are many aspects that affect long term profitability. Selection process is only one of them and not the major one either.

My problem with systems is that I just can't stop myself from handicapping the selections with other chances in the race and usualy end up backing something ealse !

Cheers.


[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-12-06 08:06 ]

Hi Partypooper,

It's a little hard to provide feedback unless you support your selections with comments as to why you like them as potential bets and what the value scenario is you envisage.

But, there probably isn't time for that now so I will add some comments on your first selection...

Race 3: Hartleys Dream

I see that is a contender. It has put together some wins by big margins but its worth noting that those races have lacked depth. In my view there hasn't been anything special about its speed in those races.

Examining its last run, it did appear to be ideally suited by the fast early speed and slow last section and only managed 3rd place beaten 0.8 lengths. The horse that won the race, Arken Silver, was a narrow 2nd in a Cl6 race prior to that and beaten 4.3L over 1000 by Hartleys Dream prior to that. It hasn't raced since. The horse than ran 2nd, beatig Hartleys Dream by 0.5L was Star Laser. It was only coming off an average Pinjarra maiden win.

So in summary Hartleys Dream (although carrying weight) was beaten into 3rd when suited in an average 3YO HCP race beaten by a prior 3YOCL6 winner and a Pinjarra Maiden winner. The figures from those races are only average and competitive with other main contenders in the field. This is no knock on the horses form, just a comment that in my view it stacks up similar to others in the race.

I don't have video comments for WA racing and I didn't see the run so I can't comment if there were any circumstances surrounding it. It does drop nicely in weight.

For what is is worth, I see Changing Lanes as the horse to beat. It's come off two solid performances in 3YO LR and G2 class where the pace was average without being overly fast in each. His figures are clear of others here. The form from his last run (0.2L 2nd to River Mist) looks to have held up quite well. The winner River Mist came out next start and finished 6th in the G1 Railway around some good horses like Roman Arch and Modem, beating home a horse like Tribula.

The 3rd horse that Changing Lanes beat home (Laetare) came out and finished 1L away in a 3YO LR next start. Magic Aces the 4th horse finished 1.3L away in the same race. Spirit Lady beaten 4L came out an won in 3YO G3 company next start.

In my opinion Changing Lanes has very good recent form in strong grade, the figures to go with it and the form references from his last run hold up nicely. Overall it seems to be stronger than the form of the others.

This is not meant to be a definitive yes or no answer about Hartleys Dream, it has a genuine chance. It's just an indication of one way of thinking which may be different to your own.

I don't really follow WA racing and I'm sure your familiarity with the conditions and runners is much better than mine.

Cheers :smile:



[ This Message was edited by: osulldj on 2003-12-06 07:27 ]

[ This Message was edited by: osulldj on 2003-12-06 07:29 ]

osulldj and crash, thanks for the feedback.Its really interesting to read how you disect the form. I used to analyse every race and spend many hours doing so, had lots of fun but still couldn't make it pay (consistantly) My talent (if any) seemed to be identifying horses that were better than their form suggests, or were unlucky in running, or dare I say it?..... "weren't trying" So it's very difficult to support my selections with comments, it's more of "gut feelings" not that I'm super confident about todays selections, I feel that any "ONE" of them can win or all of them. They are not system selections as such (though I do have another METHOD of selections based on Top raters which is also in profit) I do not back to prices, all are backed Top Fluctuation level stakes. All your comments are appreciated.

bets = 3
Wins = 1
outlay= 3 units
return = 2.5 units
loss to date .5 units
LOT = 16.66%

Partypooper,

Osulldj was just showing off !!

Without looking up the results, was the winner Prince of Versac ? Anyway, thats what I came up with and would have been my only bet of your three with Changing lanes to beat Hartley's Dream and no bet in the other race.

Off to Traralgon Cup Meeting today [Craigmoor/Just Cris for me] to make amends I hope for a loosing day yesterday.
It's a great looking day and the handbrake reckons she has the eyes picked out of the card.

Cheers.

PS: Nice win by Just Cris


[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-12-08 07:14 ]

faith. that is the key to any system.
you cant pick the eyes out of racing.
the best i have been able to do is to evolve a catch all and work from there.
good day today.
good day yesterday.
always spring in launceston.
circumnavigating in sandown.
also kaprats.
i use my listed horse swing weight system.
circumnavigating minus 3.5lengths.
kaprats minus 1.8 lengths
almost spring minus 2.8 lengths.

12/1 12/1 6/1

faith. define where the winners fall and that it is not a fluke e.g. research.

but i bet small and enjoy my day in front of the tv unless i see an ordinary ride.

i often have a snipe at sydney racing. not a listed horse running yesterday until race 6
i have said it wont be long before they will be able to hold sydney races at taree.
then they can turn the sydney tracks into car parks.
i dont know whether there is a sense of humour out there but i hope so.
on the your point of constructive criticism it is a difficult science and we all go off on tangents at times. i suggest research the tangents first.
best wishes.

Topsy99,sorry you lost me there.....

i am saying have faith in your system.
define the commonalities of your winners and losers.
e.g. you tipped thunder hawk as a good bet.
he does not win often enough to be a good bet at any time.
i have done statistics on many horses and thunder hawk is one of them.
he placed in the geelong derby trial (listed race ) in october 2001 (2 years)
my statistics show that pre-qualified horses (listed) in the second year win 20% of races won by listed horses (actually) it is 15% 5 percent is won by horses longer than 2 years.
horses qualified in the past year win 80%.
so the strike rate is not that good for a horse like thunder hawk.
he may be a casual bet at best but a good bet. never.
this statistical link gives more confidence to your betting . sorry if i lost you.
i probably have lost you in this note as well but. i am saying define a common link and have faith in it.

[quote]
On 2003-12-07 08:13, crash wrote:
Off to Traralgon Cup Meeting today [Craigmoor/Just Cris for me]

La Mer: Crash ... Just a question re the selection of Craigmoor in the Traralgon Cup yesterday. I do most of my betting now on Betfair and was intereseted in one bet only and that was to lay Craigmoor for as much as I could in the Traralgon Cup, thinking it had little chance of success and was more than happy to lay it at the odds of 10/1 for a significant amount. As you are someone who selected it I'm interested as to your reasons (Don't think I'm having a go at you, that is not my intention, more one of curiosity as ti the basis of this particular selection). Rgds.