Hermes, you should like this one. I know that you like to use info from the Unitab website to help with your betting. Well, here's something you can try which is EXCEEDINGLY simple but for some reason, seems to do okay.

Stick to NSW and VIC meetings and look only at the tips of Radiotab's specialist tipsters (John Holloway, Ray Hickson, Shane Templeton and Brendan Cormick). Now, ignore all their 1st selections and back their 2nd and 3rd selections to win.

I'm not suggesting this is the holy grail. It's simply a fun way of having an interest from race to race. Obviously you will miss out plenty of times, but from my experience, it's rare to go a meeting without picking up a nice dividend. There was a $17.90 winner yesterday at Gilgandra and there's already been a $16.40 winner today at Moruya.

There are different ways you can go with this idea. You can simply bet in every single race or you can bet until you make a profit for the meeting or for the whole day.

Take a look at how this plan has gone so far today:
Moruya (Ray Hickson)
R1 tips 7-4-2 Winner 2 paid $16.40 PROFIT $14.40
R2 tips 13-11-3 Winner 3 paid $5.40 PROFIT $3.40
R3 tips 7-5-2 Winner 5 paid $9.30 PROFIT $7.30
R4 tips 3-6-2 Winner 2 paid $3.20 PROFIT $1.20

Swan Hill (Shane Templeton)
R1 tips 7-4-8 Winner 4 paid $6.90 PROFIT $4.90
R2 tips 1-10-7 Winner 1 paid $3.20 (LOSS $2.00)
R3 tips 5-1-4 Winner 4 paid $5.90 PROFIT $3.90
R4 tips 3-1-4 Winner 4 paid $2.60 PROFIT $0.60

If you had been simply looking for a profit at each meeting, you could have stopped after race 1 at each venue having spent just $4 and got back $23.30!!!

I would warn you that it may not be a great idea to join in now with the rest of today's races. After such a brilliant start, it's probably too much to expect this plan's run to continue today!!!


[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-01-19 15:29 ]

By the way, I've just noticed they've actually made a mistake with the tips on the Unitab site for Swan Hill Race 7. Shane Templeton's tips aren't 3-6-7. They are 4-3-6-7.

Many thanks Sportznut. For years I had the mentality of buying more and more data. This paper. That program. The main reason I was losing money was not the horses but the supplimentary data I was buying every week. I was making a small profit on the horses but going broke doing it.

I remained convinced that if you're any good you can make a profit only from the data on the Unitab site or the morning newspaper. Although I've never looked at their specialist tipsters, only the tipsters poll. Looks good today. Templeton certainly has a solid record lately.

I notice "Reading Ratings" boasting about their strike rate on Skycannel. But I'm thinking that strike rate doesn't necessarily convert into profit. Anyone bother with Read Ratings?

Cheers

Hermes

Shane Templeton is actually tipping TOO WELL today. This system relies on the tipsters being ALMOST right and getting the winner with their 2nd or 3rd selection, not their first. Today Templeton has got 4 winners with his first tip and that means a wipeout if you back just the 2nd and 3rd tips. In the long run however, I do believe it is better to back the 2nd and 3rd selections as this is where you find the better dividends. Ray Hickson's 3rd tip Aerodramus just won race 6 at Moruya and paid $14.00!!!

Here are the final results for this plan today:

Moruya: 8 races, 5 wins $48.30 PROFIT $32.30
Swan Hill: 8 races, 3 wins $15.40 (LOSS $0.60)

Both meetings: 16 races, 8 wins $63.70 PROFIT $31.70

I went back through some past races sportznut and the sample bears out exactly what you say. You are far better backing the second and third tips. The majority of meetings pull some good winners. Its not the Holy Grail but its a good place to start.

You are better backing the second and third Radio Tab tips as well but the specialist tipster does better.

Thanks.

Hermes

Yeah, as I said, Shane Templeton actually tipped too well with his first picks yesterday, but I've done well following his 2nd and 3rd tips in the past. He got a $22 winner a few weeks ago and last Wednesday he got 4 winners paying $16.20, $6.40, $12.10 and $11.90!!! :smile:

I took a sample of 338 races, summers 04, 03, 02. Backing all three tips gets just below break even = $329.50. The value is clearly in the *second* tip which scored a 34% strike rate and was where most of the two-figure winners were. No value in the first tip and the third tip did poorly in this sample. The performance of the second tip was strong and consistent and quite noticeable. Some good winners in the third tip but not enough of them overall.

I'd be inclined to stick to the second tip or stagger the bet: 3 units on the second tip and 2 on the third, or something like that.

Hermes

PS: I ran into a couple of meetings where Ray Hickson had a shocker. Obviuously if your tipster has a bad day you go down with them.

Okay, thanks very much for that. As I said, this is not really meant to be a punting saviour, just a way of having an interest from race to race and picking up the occasional good priced winner. Every now and then you might have a bit of a wipeout when the tips don't do so well.

Despite what happened yesterday, if you just wanted to follow one tipster, you should probably go for Shane Templeton. He seems to get quite a few good priced winners, especially with his second selections. By the way, I think someone on here actually said that they follow all of Templeton's tips when they are paying $5 or more. That could be an idea too. Do you have any figures on how Shane Templeton's tips went in that period of time you were looking at?


[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-01-20 14:50 ]

Hermes......just as an after thought when looking at tipsters when i look at tips ,ratings whatever it always seems that the second tips do better than the first my thoughts on this are that when you are doing form you are always looking for the best horse in the race but in a lot of cases the best horse in the race has reached it peak and the second tip maybe just peaking and that is why they do better