I do the form on Friday and narrow the field down to 3 or 4 chances. Then I calulate each horse's chance. Then I see what the tote price is on race to see if I have an advantage or not.

Example.

Phar Lap I think the horse horse has a 80% chance of winning.

The tote is offering $4.50 which is a 23% chance of winning. Therefore i Would bet on that horse.

Yeah, good idea. Here's what you can do.

Say you've studied a race and sorted it out like this:
Might And Power 40% chance
Northerly 30% chance
Sunline 20% chance
Lohnro 10% chance

You can simply divide those totals into 100 to create your own set of odds for that race. In this case it would be:
Might And Power $2.50
Northerly $3.30
Sunline $5.00
Lohnro $10.00


[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-02-24 11:36 ]

In that last example, I was using a 100% market. If you want a more realistic comparison with TAB prices, you should really divide the horse's % chance into 120, not 100.

That would make the prices look this way:
Might And Power $3.00
Northerly $4.00
Sunline $6.00
Lohnro $12.00


[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-02-24 18:36 ]

I will take that $12.00 on lohnro thanks

Even if it's the Cox Plate??? :grin:

[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-02-24 17:48 ]

Good one Sportz !!

At the odds suggested, there can be no other horses in the race naturally.

If those other horses mentioned where running now, the question would be, Lohnro who ?

Cheers.

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-02-24 18:02 ]