Okay, I've been going through all the betting results for 2003 and I thought I'd share some stats with you. This is how successful each team was in 2003 when it came to Handicap / Line Betting:

(Team Wins/Losses Win%)

AFL:
Collingwood - 16/8 - 66.7%
Hawthorn - 12/8 - 60%
Adelaide - 14/10 - 58.3%
Port Adel. - 14/10 - 58.3%
Sydney - 14/10 - 58.3%
Geelong - 11/8 - 57.9%
Essendon - 11/11 - 50%
Kangaroos - 10/11 - 47.6%
Fremantle - 9/10 - 47.3%
W.Bulldogs - 9/10 - 47.3%
Richmond - 9/11 - 45%
West Coast - 9/11 - 45%
St Kilda - 8/10 - 44.4%
Brisbane - 10/15 - 40%
Carlton - 8/13 - 38.1%
Melbourne - 6/15 - 28.6%

NRL:
Penrith - 16/6 - 72.7%
Canberra - 16/8 - 66.7%
Nth Qld - 14/7 - 66.7%
Melbourne - 14/11 - 56%
St Geo/Illawarra - 10/8 - 55.5%
Sydney - 13/11 - 54%
Bulldogs - 14/12 - 53.8%
Newcastle - 12/13 - 48%
Manly - 10/11 - 47.6%
Parramatta - 10/12 - 45.4%
W.Tigers - 10/12 - 45.4%
New Zealand - 11/15 - 42.3%
Souths - 9/14 - 39%
Brisbane - 8/16 - 33.3%
Sharks - 7/16 - 30.4%

Super12:
Chiefs - 8/3 - 72.7%
Bulls - 7/3 - 70%
Blues - 9/4 - 69.2%
Sharks - 6/4 - 60%
Hurricanes - 6/5 - 54.5%
Qld Reds - 5/5 - 50%
Crusaders - 6/7 - 46.1%
ACT Brumbies - 5/6 - 45.4%
Cats - 4/6 - 40%
Highlanders - 4/7 - 36.3%
NSW Waratahs - 3/7 - 30%
Stormers - 2/8 - 20%

By the way, I'm actually a Broncos and Lions fan, but I often bet against them because I feel that the Bookies tend to rate them too highly. Despite the fact that the Lions won the Premiership last year, I successfully bet against them many times. I was even more successful backing against the Broncos. When you look at the figures, you can see why.

By the way, I used TAB Sportsbet for the starts on all of the matches, but most Bookies' starts would be pretty much the same. Anyway, I hope you got some useful info out of all those figures. Some of them make for interesting reading.

[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-03-20 23:06 ]

Geez sportznut you are a marvel, you should work for Smartgambler :grin:

Thanks. :smile:

hey sportznut, do u gamble professionally??? is this your job,

very good indeed

how can we relate that to this season Sportz

These stats are just an illustration that positions on the table don't necessarily equate with results as far as line betting is concerned. Line betting is all about the Bookie's opinion of how much better one team is than another, and these opinions often tend to be skewed towards certain teams.

What I suggest you do is look for teams which you think can improve this year. Anyone who had managed to pick out Canberra and Penrith in the NRL early last year would have done brilliantly. Likewise, you should look for teams which the Bookies tend to under-rate. Nth Qld fall into that category and they also did well on the line last year.

Alternatively, you can bet against teams that you think will drop off a bit this year, because Bookies will tend to rate them on past performance. Or you can simply bet against teams which you think the Bookies seem to rate too highly. As I said earlier, both of the Brisbane teams are consistently over-rated and I've done very well betting against them. When the Broncos started that horror run towards the end of last season I could tell there was something horribly wrong with the team. It was obvious their hearts just weren't in it and they were playing like wooden spooners. However, the Bookies kept on making them favourites purely on reputation, and I kept on betting against them game after game with success.

[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-03-21 13:53 ]

Well, the over-rated Broncos go down once again as short priced favs and once again I collected. I was amazed at the head to head price and the start that Parra were given, considering their previous good form against Brisbane in Brisbane.

[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-03-21 17:36 ]

I went to Noosa and Coolum today so I didnt reinvest on the broncs so I kept my$4.76 profit I won on the doggies but in theory I lost .Its amatter of giving advice and not keepking to it I said I was going to pick one team and i picked 2 and it is still to early in the season ...and before last week I said I was going to take the points start for a few weeks and have some doubles without considering the form didnt do that either ...... Im not dedicated enough gotta get my head down and ******** up and get a bit serious ....

And like ya said about broncs being overated they had a shocker last season and they still kept rating them and I think they always will have a midyear slump with Origin committments ...........

I think from memory the first time parra played Brisbane at ANZ (and Parra were doin it tough at the time )they gave Brisbane a pasting