Given an overall Win Strike rate of 29%+, does anyone know how to work out the possible /probable losing runs when 2 selections are "grouped" together???? i.e.not exactly dutching just betting an equal amount on each.

The answer is 20 outs before the next win.

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Cheers.

Bhagwan, thanks for that, does that mean 40 losers?? i.e. say I have a method that selects one horse in race 1 and one horse in race 2, overall there is a S/R of 29%+, but I use a progression method basically backing the 2 selections as one bet, then progress week to week.
to clarify say the first bet is 1 unit, then the stake is 1/2 unit on each, if both lose the next bet is say.. 2 units.. so 1 unit on each etc etc , now if both lose obviously thats a total loss, but if one wins at say 3-1, then the overall return is equal to 1-1, if both win thats a bonus. Like wise if one wins at evens or less then there is a return so not a total loss.
So when you say a likely losing run at some time is 20 does that mean 40 losers?

Hi Partypooper,,
you clearly stated that the combined SR of the 2 combined is 29% so it`s treated as a single bet ,wheather one or both get up ,it`s included as a single bet ,therefore the stats remain the same.

E.G.
8 race program would equal 4 double bets .
Assuming a SR of 29% = 1.16 wins, regardless whether one or both get up ,it only affects the return for that single double bet not the SR percentage.

It`s a pretty good way of betting .
One can possibly Dutch bet this method if one was inclined.

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Cheers.

Bhagwan, thanks again, still can't quite get my head around that though. The 29% S/R is taken overall, i.e. if all where selections were backed at level stakes, 29 from 100 win (on average). There is 2 selections per week, so grouping them as one bet it seems very unlikely that I could go for 20 weeks without a single win, but I am prepared to accept the mathes if that is what it says,.... thanks again. NB. the longest run without a win for the last 2 years was 5 (twice)

PP,

If you have a 29% strike rate for each selection then the chances of not getting a winner with a group of 2 selections is very close to 50%. The chance of having 5 outs (no winners in 5 groups of 2 selections) is approximately 3%. So 3 times out of 100 you will start a progression and not strike a winner after 5 bets(10 really). The chance of you having 20 outs is just over 1 in a million which is highly unlikely.

AssumeTheCrown, Phew, thanks for that, I was having some deep thoughts there for a while. What do you think of this method of investing, i.e. grouping 2 or more selections together as one bet then covering to win (target betting) betting week to week rather than race to race. One good point is that all your bets can be placed early before racing, ideal if (like me) you have a business that keeps you busy Saturdays.

PP,

If you have a 29% strike rate then i would be interested to know your average dividend? You need an average dividend of $3.45 to break square at level stakes.

I dont believe in progression betting because if a system doesnt win at level stakes then it is not expected to win over time however you structure your betting amounts.

AssumeTheCrown, 516 bets so far = 159 winners, S/R actually now =30.81%(good day Sat.)

at levels = 516 out 566.96 in
=9.875% POT

And yes I agree entirely, wouldn't even be contemplating this one if there wasn't a level stakes profit. And before anyone says it...... of course I can just keep on what I'm doing with this one and back at level stakes, but it is a bit boring, and I like to have a ticket in the big one, so was thinking of the target thing with a set bank and double the target each time the bank doubles etc etc

The way I see it now ,is that 100 races would equate to 50 groups of 2 which gives each group a 58% SR.(2*29)
Please correct me if I`m wrong.

The longest run of outs expected would then be between 8-9.

The average div. to break even would have to be $3.45 based on level stakes.

A method of betting with this high SR would be to increase your bet by say 20% after each winner & repeat the bet if a looser & keep doing this until a desired profit has been reached.

Then start allover again.

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Cheers.