Have you ever said that and not had a cent on it?
I have and have heard it quoted to me many times.
I think from now on,it is time to just back what I think rather than go through all the minute intimate details of form analysis.
I think somewhere in the deep dark recesses of our mind,we have a feeling of when a horse is about due for a win.
And that seems to be a powerful factor.
Horses that hardly ever win,hardly ever win.
And those that win often,don't all of a sudden decide not to anymore.

Hey moeee, tried analising the soccer stats and came up with a losing pool last year(perhaps my methods for finding the winner needs review). But I had a pool where I would go through the fixtures for various leagues I watched and pick winners as you would say "I should back that". Mostly mid table teams I thought had a good chance and were value. This one profited without too much of a system. Left me a little confused yet again.

A big key to success is to write a price next to your selection.
Convert it into a percentage,subtract from 100 and that gives your opponents percentage.
Convert that into a price and ask yourself,"do these prices look about right"?,regardless of what's on offer.
Then race off to your bookmaker and see what he's offering.

Hey Mo, guess what. There's a horse called that running at Ascot today. Race 6 number 10 HEY MO. Not without an each-way chance, but Number 7 RUSTIQUE is the one to beat.

Anyway, back to the subject at hand, I'm often saying "I knew that would win", but it's usually when I've tossed up between two horses and the one I haven't chosen gets up. Actually, a wierd thing happened on Sandown Cup day. In one race, I was tossing up between two longshots, Tarcoola Diamond and Tully Bellotto. Well, I ended up going for Tully Bellotto and I was going right off when Greg Miles was calling Tarcoola Diamond in front. Then he realised his mistake. I couldn't believe my luck.

[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-11-24 17:22 ]

I'll tell you what has happened to me on many occasions (far too many to count).

I've thought that one horse appeared to be the obvious winner as soon as I looked at the field. Then I've gone and studied it a bit more or listened to all the 'experts' opinions and I've gone off my original selection. Well, you know the rest.

Mate, I had one of those nights tonight!! It was either get the bet on or miss the start of my Oztag match. I decided to be a good bloke and get to the game and not go to the TAB.

My bet was Kevin Freeman to be top scorer ahead of Rucker, Ronaldson and Crawford at $3 in the game tongiht. Unfortunatley for me I got home in time to watch the 2nd half only to see Freeman kicking ass!! Ah thems the breaks!

Yep, on a $33 horse and to add insult to injury I told someone else to bet on it and they collected a nice sum.

I knew NZ breakers would Beat brisbane bullets tonight in the nbl. oh so so i did not back it. I havent backed nbl since my big loss a couple rounds back.

Can I say there is much wisdom in that post.
I think we can all know too much.
I've been studying past results for Victorian greyhounds with much enthusiasm,and again,I have lost just the same.
Sure,after the race we can see why the roughy of the field got up.
But I think the original thoughts are the best.
I am going to try something similar to what a ROMAN KOZ suggested.
Compare horses in lots of 2's or 3's.
I will throw out the worst in a group of 3.
Then grab another 3 runners and throw out the worst.
Quck analysis that will be.
When I end up with only 3 starters left,I will then study more closely and compare the available price and make my selections from that.
Makes it hard to post selections prior to start time though.

On Friday there was a horse, SOKYOLA, that I knew would win. I just thought to myself "I'll see how it goes with nothing riding on it" and no second guesses as to what happened.

I forget what race it was but Sokyola was 2nd favourite at about 2.75.