Well I've got a couple of questions that a few might be able to help me with....

Assuming a punter were to rate the races a horse ran in and assign them a kg rating, what do you do with those ratings to achieve a final rating?

Did Scott take an average of ALL starts, use the last start, take the last three starts, take the peak rating or compare the peak with the last run or perhaps something else?

How did he rate a first up horse?

Valid questions, as I don't have his books

I'm asking because I'm toying with ratings which aren't weight based and would like to follow the same calculation method to see how it compares with weight ratings.

Chrome,

Don Scott used his own Class and Weight rating tables successfully for
20 odd years but then something changed or went awry with them, and
that seemed to knock Don for six and from which he did not recover.

Many modern day analyzers think his class\weight ratings formula became
outdated because they didn't allow for speed.
Don believed times - final or sectional, to be unimportant and even misleading.

I think it should be considered one way or another because the top jockeys all seem to use it re. the pace of the race and when they make their run.
Don knew that times at different tracks varied greatly because of their shape and layout and he didn't want a bar of it.

( In another Thread here at OZ. the lads are discussing the different jockeys
and their ability to do very well at certain tracks, while not so good at others -could that be due to them not being able to do their count\strategy so well on a saucer shaped track as on a elliptical ? Then the movable rail ?
Head wind - Tail wind - Cross wind ?)

Don was exasperated by the times\computer people, he believed the computers were as baffled by times as their programmers.
Most of all he believed relative weight to be the only reliable guide to the way a horse will perform - Weight is right - Weight is always right.

But then take a race last Saturday R5 Doomben, had you backed Messiaen
you surely would have been getting ready to collect, but Mike Pelling came
and changed that in a second (He's still got it). I would love to have the Stats. re. how many times over 15 years G.Colless and so so many others has been beaten less than a neck by,
Dittman,Shoemaker,Greg Hall,Jimmy Byrne,Mike Pelling,Beadman,Dye,Oliver,Paul Harvey.

These jockeys appear to have an X tra which has to be weighed up seperately from weight\speed etc. - is it the count\strategy, or in the final metre of a race the pure aggressive will to win ?- it's one of the few things that keeps me interested - Lester Piggott had it -George Moore-Kev.Langby-Roy Higgins -Harry White, and this Paul Harvey seems to have it in spades.
I've noticed this lad Nick.Ryan maybe has it too.

Racings variables are a hell of a mountain to climb, and the luckiest people are those who have a regular job.

Regards.

Thats very profound Racer.

Racing is so variable that to lose focus on the real things such as a good job and home etc is too high a price to pay for chasing the variables of racing for a living.

its good fun and feels good to turn a longshot now and again.
but no nerves to get too stuck in.

__________________
laurie

Thanks Racer,

Yes Don was very successful, but it did indeed fall over somewhat. That is why I'm trying to find out how he arrived at his starting point, and then go from there. If I remember correctly, I think a video accompanied his last book, but it was mainly to do with track layout etc.

I find it somewhat amazing that nowhere on the net, is his approach detailed.

I don't mean the figures he used or his "scale", but his actual approach.

I think that Mark Read uses something comparable with his Read Ratings, and I have great respect for them, just wish they were available on the net.

__________________
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I did have a copy of his book "winning in the 90s" not any more worse luck....from what i can remember he use to look at the horse last few runs and find one that was similar in class as todays run.....i don't really know what happend to Don Scott in his punting life....would love to read a book on it...did anyone ever write one.....using logic i would say that after using the same method for 20 years he was convinced they were perfect and yes failed to change with the times.....no i won't say it had to do with not adapting race times in to his form because i have never used them but have done ok....can anyone that uses them in Australia honestly say they are doing a lot better than others because they use times.....i am not saying they don't work...but many different styles work for different people.....Andrew Byer one of the United States best punters came here armed with his race times ideas and thought he would make a fortune from the bookies because he thought he had an advantage we didn't use.....he got smashed big time....now we have adapted times here but using ideas they we have developed suited to our tracks

Direct quotes from one of Scott's books:

"The base run rating is a very important figure. It is the foundation on which you build all your future ratings calculations.

The base run rating depends on ... the number of runs from a spell (and) the expected peak rating.

If the horse is racing for the 1st time this preparation, the base run rating is the expected peak rating.

If the horse is racing for the 2nd time this preparation, the base run rating is the ratings for its 1st run this preparation.

If the horse is racing for the 3rd time this preparation, the base run rating is the better of its two previous runs.

From the 4th run onwards, the base run rating is usually the best of the horse's last three runs."

Chrome,

If you still want Don's approach even though, as you say it, "did indeed fall over somewhat", then all I have to do is understand what part\parts you need.

I mean his first breakthrough came when 50 years ago he realized that;

Instead of comparing one horse against another, he would simply compare it
with an imaginary average horse carrying the limit weight in an average race -
and provided that he knew the class of that race, and the difference between that class and the class of every other race, he was on his way.

Using the handicapper's theoretical weights as a basis he worked out the weight difference between (in those days) a maiden - novice - encourage - graduation -welter - open. Once he had established these diffs. he found there was a simple method of rating every horse and used it successfully for 23 years in conjunction with his pricing for profit using his ratings.

You must say if that's all you need Chrome, or if you need his method of rating the performance of a horse in a race ?
I don't want to be typing away unless you want more.

Regards.

Thanks guys that's exactly what I was after.

I could argue against his method somewhat, as he is assessing potential in a lot of areas, and how often does a horse live up to his potential? This has to be factored in as well. I have also just read G.R.'s method and can argue against his second and third up from a spell bias.

I guess it's the information I was after, not the argument

Thanks again, that gives me a starting point to apply my own ideas and bias or non bias.

__________________
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Now with over 412,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/12/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
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Who's GR?

Just as an aside, there was Don who did not like the Times\Ratings method
at all while here I have just dug out the late Alex Bird.

'He outwitted the bookies and made 70 million pounds Sterling' - err excuse me, should that not be turned over 70 mill.
Alex was good but I don't think even he was that good.

Anyway here he is fishing about in a boat on his moat surrounding his mansion while quietly contemplating his day ahead.
First thing to do is mobile a maid in the mansion 30 yards away - get her to ask cook to knock up a smoked salmon lunch box, and ice up a couple of bottles of
Dom Perignon - get the butler to put the lot in the boot of the roller.

While thousands of punters were working out their bets with their eye on some mystical fortune, the most successful backer in the history of the turf
had no intention of outlaying any money on the horses, not this day anyway.
He was off to TIME the runners with his stopwatch.
I spend months watching a horse, he said,seeing how it performs in all types of going- I study every racecourse,take notice of TIME,weights, and the barrier draw - then I compute what the odds should be and if the bookies are not offering my odds then I don't bet.
I never chase losses - I'm terrified of losing.

Regards.