CAUL R5-3.10 C.F. ORR STAKES 1400 M
($302000) WFA (GROUP 1)

1 ELVSTROEM Tony Vasil N Rawiller 15 58
2 MUMMIFY Lee Freedman N Ryan (a) 10 58
3 PENTASTIC Colin Alderson B Shinn (a) 8 58
4 MR. MURPHY Lee Freedman D Gauci 7 58
5 REGAL ROLLER Clinton McDonald M Flaherty 6 58
6 NATURAL BLITZ Doug Harrison D Dunn 5 58
7 CASUAL PASS Mathew Ellerton V Hall 3 58
8 LAD OF THE MANOR (NZ) Roger Hoysted B E Johns 9 58
9 RIZON Cliff Brown G Childs 1 58
10 PRETORIUS (NZ) Brian Mayfield-Smith S Baster 11 58
11 MAKYBE DIVA (GB) Lee Freedman Steven King 4 55.5
12 VOUVRAY (NZ) Peter G Moody L Nolen 13 55.5
13 SAVABEEL Graeme Rogerson D Nikolic 12 54.5
14 NOT A SINGLE DOUBT Tony Vasil S W Arnold 14 54.5
15 DANEHILL EXPRESS Brian Mayfield-Smith D Oliver 2 54.5

Looks like Regal Roller is going to get the softest G1 lead of all time. I cant see any of these going with him early and he should get it all his own way. He is awesome here and any price over $3.00 is a good bet

I like Lad of the Manor and his first up run was about what I expected out of him just not what alot of others predicted, Regal Roller may get a softish lead but I still have questions about this horse sure he has won some good races but it was against the likes of Oscar Warrior I mean c'mon he is a solid horse but no superstar that is for certain. I just felt although I did expect him to lose first up it was a very average effort and was under pressure for along way maybe he just needed the run. Hard to knock the 3 yo's in this either any of them could win it and I wouldn't be surprised to see them even possibly triffecta the race at the moment I have a liking for Danehill Express just ahead of Savabeel and Not A Single Doubt after that Elvstroem should be tough aswell barrier is the biggest concern there. I like Rizon a little as place chance but the WFA scale puts me off of it would think it could certainly prduce a decent run 1st up though.

I'm with the 3yo's too:

Savabeel
Danehill Express

Regal Roller will not be beaten, if you blokes back anything else you're kidding yourselves.

I wouldnt be taking anything short about Regal Roller....not until he beats something worthy..
i like the 3yo's aswell ...the bottom 3 for me with one of the stayers running home like Elvis or Pentastic ..

OK let me show you some sense:

Elvstroem

Will be on an Australia Cup prep. Ain't no WAY Tony will have him near fit for this race, and from barrier 15 he'll have to go back to the tail, or sit on a limb. NO ONE can sit ona limb at Caulfield and win, and if he goes back to last, he can't win. So, he can't win.

MUMMIFY

Same reasons as above without the barrier stuff. Also, he's a strong one pacer, not suited at 1400.

PENTASTIC

Whilst he likes it best dead, he likes Flemington, never been placed Caulfield (thoguh has run well here) but 1400 is too short also.

CASUAL PASS

Nice horse, but suspect will be going for races over more distance also, and isn't up to the class of the group one horses in this race.

LAD OF THE MANOR

Nice horse, not a group one WFA horse though.

MAKYBE DIVA

My favourite horse on the planet. Won a HEAP on her two years ago Melb Cup day. Love her. Champion. Best staying mare I have ever seen. CANNOT rap her enough, however she can't win over 1400m.

VOUVRAY

Also a nice mare, however not up to this. COULD make a group one horse in open company (QLD oaks doesn't count, not sure if it is G1 anyway) however again I suspect this is too short a trip.

SAVABEEL

The only horse who wouldn't surprise if won.

NOT A SINGLE DOUBT

Not G1 on last starts win.

DANEHILL EXPRESS

Will make a nice horse and trained by a genius, but doubt up to this yet.


The rest of them aren't up to this. Regal Roller just wins. I'll be having heaps on him

Good luck if you bet around him, and good punting.

Duritz.

REGAL ROLLER
DANEHILL EXPRESS
ELVSTROEM
CASUAL PASS

Duritz,

Some points to consider:

1. 3yos won the Orr Stakes six years in a row before last year - the weight advantage is significant.

2. Regal Roller was sluggish first up.

3. Danehill Express needed the run first up. He'll be much better tomorrow and he has winning form at Caulfield 1400m.

4. There's plenty of class around with Melbourne Cup, Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate winners in the field.

I wouldn't be rushing to throw a stack of money on Regal Roller tomorrow.

Anyway, should be a great race. My numbers are:

15. Danehill Express
5. Regal Roller
14. Not a Single Doubt

I'm still unsure what to do with Savabeel.

Cheers & good luck,

F

ps. the Queensland Oaks is G1

all good points except -

NONE of the big three (caulfield cup, melb, cox) will be ready tomorrow. regal roller was sluggish b/c he's being set for this.

anyway, we'll see tomorrow. I hope I'm not wrong after declaring him like this, but I really don't think I will be. I think he's as good a thing as I've seen on a metro track in a long time.

last time I made declarations this big, the horse was scratched!!! (cool trent!)

Good luck

Duritz