My little place system conconction that I have been using for a couple of years usually hovers at around 85%SR. So far since Jan 01 this year it's sitting at the following...

SYSTEM SELECTOR SUMMARY FOR: XX RESULTS XX 01/01/2005-23/02/2005
Created by Bet Selector at 12:25:42 on 23/02/2005
WIN PLACE QUINELLA EXACTA TRIFECTA FIRST FOUR
Races Bet : 34 32 34 34 34 24
Races Won : 19 31 23 16 12 7
S.R./Race : 55.9% 96.9% 67.6% 47.1% 35.3% 29.2%
Outlay ($): 34.00 32.00 162.00 162.00 620.00 1296.00
Return : 38.80 35.66 187.20 179.50 598.10 1744.70
$ Profit : 4.80 3.66 25.20 17.50 -21.90 448.70
% P.O.T. : 14.1% 11.4% 15.6% 10.8% -3.5% 34.6%

I know it will be hitting a rough patch to return to normal..... is there any staking strategy to lessen the bump?

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shy
Live, Learn, Love & Laugh!

It sounds like a good idea. What are the rules as I wold like to do my own tests?

Benny

To be honest i don't see a problem.....all but one of your systems is showing a nice profit total outlay is $2306 return $2783.96 profit $477 POT 20.68%.....thats better than average profit.....all you need do is increase your turnover....the only thing that worries me is that first4 figure....most of you actualy money profit is coming from there....and it holds a large portion of your betting amounts.

Benny, it's a pretty run of the mill last start winner, short priced fav plus a couple of standard filters. All the things we're meant to stay away from if we want value!. It's just that I seem to be having a similar psychological reaction at the moment to having a run of outs - I feel like I should stop. Especially as a few non-placers in a row really make a dent in the profit at this end of the price scale. I often see methods for recoupment on here... thought there might be something less drastic ahead of the event.

Perhaps I should post some selections here - let the curse do it's job (and not back them!) - then resume when it's back in kilter. Or maybe I just need to see a shrink

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shy
Live, Learn, Love & Laugh!

Hi Shy,
Its a very important part of WAGERING to understand when one of these "hot streak[s]" has arrived? How do you know if your "hot streak" is part of a POSITIVE or a NEGATIVE DIGRESSION? and Would this information make any difference in your wagering strategy? and How do you capitalize on a "hot streak" in wagering?

If you open up the SPREADSHEET that I posted some time ago it allows you to test 12 Wagering parameters and study the algorithm that creates the bet amounts, you will find that it lays out a strategy that capitalizes on WIN TRENDS, and puts the brakes on when a LOSING TREND develops.

The data that you have accumulated on the various factors comprise your statistical analysis. If a certain factor or group of factors provides evidence that they are indicative of entrants that win 25 % of all of their races, pay an average Odds of 4 to 1, and have a longest anticipated losing streak of 15 races, then you know that through a reasonable profit cycle you can earn a positive ROI of 25 %.

Obviously, since you will have 3 loses for every win, on average, you know that loses will come in streaks of up to 15 consecutive races. Therefor, it's very logical and probable that wins will also come in streaks. THIS IS THE ESSENCE OF A 100 % MECHANICAL SYSTEM. The goal of these wager parameters is to capitalize on multiple wins, which occur consecutively, or in close proximity, and to conserve capital during the losing streaks.

Once I buy a stock I use a money-management system to trade in the stocks, so that I make a profit through a reasonable profit cycle. This is the same approach I use in other forms of investment wagering. As stock prices fluctuate they will produce positive and negative digressions from equipartition. It is important that you have well defined money-management parameters that permit you to capitalize on positive and negative digressions. These parameters require you to take profits while in positive digressions and reinvest these profits in negative digressions. In this way your AVERAGE SHARE PRICE is always low enough to produce profits in the next positive digression. This is exactly the same procedure that you use in wager investing. If your research has pinpointed factors that produce a positive ROI (based upon WIN %, AVERAGE PAYOFF, LONGEST ANTICIPATED LOSING STREAK), you can confidently invest in losing streaks, knowing that Probability, Statistics, and Logic will produce consistent, substantial profits, through a reasonable profit cycle.
Go check out that spreadsheet an observe the clumpiness of wins.