As you are all aware I am a very controversial person on the forum.

I believe too many punters follow the old ways that have been around for a 100 years and not many succeed.

I have been following something for ONLY 2 weeks.

I look at EVERY race EVERYDAY regardless of class, distance etc.

There is a bet in MOST races ranging from 1 horse to 4 horses.

The horses are bet for the place ONLY.

NOW there's one for the purists backing 4 horses for a place.

The WORST day going all day was +3.8 points (but was a lot further ahead during the day)

The BEST day was +14.8 points.

All divis were nsw tab so could be improved by shopping around.

Any feedback on this as I would be interested to see if anyone says it is impossible.

I have a result in 90% of races so there is no big run of outs.

Some races I would bet 4 and get a return of only 2.5 so lose 1.5, but it's not a wipeout.

Other races I've had 3 bets and got 3 places.

No money outlaid yet but getting close.

What I'm getting at is there are many different ways outside the norm you just have to sniff em out.

This idea came from a casual conversation with a friend.

Cheers

Hi Kenchar

I do not know what your selection method is but you have hit on something that I have been experimenting with for a couple of months now and is showing a healthy profit on paper. Mine are win only bets and the selections are computer generated via Betfair prices, so the actual selection system is completely different to yours.

The point is that going against perceived wisdom (which states be selective, wait for an opportunity, only bet in higher class races, small fields etc), it is possible to find selections in nearly every race regardless of type class etc.

I think this is psychological as much as anything. In a system that aims to select the best bet of the day, after ELEVEN losers you start to think 'If this does not buck up in a few days than I Will have gone a fortnight without a winner'.

On a typical Saturday (UK) there are 5 meetings with 7 races in each so 35 potential bets. With this number of races it is possible to have two losing runs of ELEVEN and still be left with 13 races that contain winning bets.

So instead of $100 bucks on the best bet of the day (which loses because the jockey gets hemmed in) you spread the load and have $3 on the 35 races. I find that losing runs and strike rates pale into insignificance and the only thing of importance is the balance sheet at the end of the day.

Overall I find my method is pretty static, without the bank increasing or decreasing dramatically for days or even weeks, then all of a sudden it gets a boost and goes up. Because there always seem to be a few winners a day the best days for profit outweigh the worst days for losses. Even though I record every race onto a database I also put the weekly figure on to a spread sheet which shows a gradual increase since the start (just like a good investment.)

As for investing real money I have found from past experience systems that have played a blinder for two months and seemed invincible, then start to lose big time. My plan is to paper trade for a year and put the money I would normally bet into building up a bank. If it continues to work I will bet, if not I will buy myself a good Christmas present.

Good luck with yours and I hope it continues in profit.

Dolus

kenchar, i have been a believer for sometime that where a race is run or what class it may be has little to do with if i can make a dollar out of it - as i think you have said a few times saturday class racing can often be the "worst" day of the week.

without trying to guess your selection method might i be right in saying that it is based around price? & also what pot are you achieving?

Hi Kenchar

Yes i reckon one always has to keep an open mind in everything when it comes to betting.

I can tell you that i had about 5 years of research which looked at starting prices and percentages.

Across all classes/distances/state of track/field size etc any state in Australia any racecourse in the long term the percentages were very close ie: approx 30% fav. etc.

cheers
ubetido

__________________
Life should NOT be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in an attractive and well preserved body,but rather to skid in sideways, BEER in one hand- PIZZA in the other, body thoroughly used up, totally worn out and screaming WOO HOO!

i agree with a lot of points here,
i have been following all codes for over 30 years and there is one thing i know is that it from the local barfly to the racing paper expert is that a your perception of who will win will be different to others.
ratings, charts,videos and crystal balls are tools in your analysis of a race.
the money you spend and how you spend it is the key.
i,ve had days of 7 out of 10 wins only to look back and say i should of bet smarter, then along comes your hunch and gives you your only win a day later and the profit makes you smile.

just a few thoughts to share.
i know one thing, if we didn,t enjoy the challange we wouldn,t do it.!!!

now were is that next winner????

davez,
I am not working to odds(strange for me) but a certain formline thing.
The minimum odds (place) I will accept is $2.0 and the maximum is the skies the limit. I am getting quite a few in the $4.0 to $6.0 range.
The best so far is $18 which is obviously once in a blue moon so I didn't include that when working out the profit on that day.
As far as POT, I never work on that but units or points or whatever you want to call them ( the size of the bet ).
I don't care what I have to outlay on a day as long as I can get my profit for the day.
Yesterday 64 out 77 in, so that's a nice 13 for the day, but I will never go the whole day, but stop when I'm satisfied.
Hey it might be a purple patch at the moment I don't know, but all I am doing at this stage is running the whole day to see if there are any disasters.

Cheers

Kenchar, How has your new method gone over the past week? Hopefully it is still working for you.

Hi Kenchar,
Just caught up with your post.
That’s interesting. I have been putting together an automated program that I gave a test to on Saturday for a few hours. It just ran along dummy betting on all races except for races with distances of greater than 2000 and fields of less than 7 runners

The selection method was to dutch the 3 market favourites and the result was 22 wins out of 25 races. I can't give you any POT figures but it did double the bank.

Early days yet - it would be nice to think that happened all the time.

DR RON,
MMMMMMMM, not as good as hoped, with a couple of shockers showing up,
luckily no money outlaid yet.
Dead set everything I try falls in a hole except my main betting method, of watching the odds, which is still rolling along fine.
Today I had one bet on my main method for $2.5 place very early in the day.
I will keep following the other but have doubts, but will still keep looking at various things. Maybe one day!!!!

Debug,
Hate to say it won't happen all the time, this ************ game has definately got patterns, but the trouble is they run all over the place, go great for a couple of weeks then fall into big holes before the pattern emerges again.
I still reckon the area I mainly work to ie 3RD and 4TH fav is the best as you are getting a bit of value and they are in the market.

Cheers

Having one method that works sure beats having none that work!!!