Brisbane

Race 1 number 9 DANE NEWS
Race 2 number 4 ANIMATE
Race 5 number 9 WISELINK
Race 7 number 16 LE DESTINA
Race 8 number 4 MABUZ

Adelaide

Race 2 number 14 FRENCH BELLE

Gluck to all

Race 6: Only two have run the distance, Lashed and Soprana, not sure about Adelaide from for Lashed but Yes She Can CanCan looks a likely type.

Building my quinella around Lovely Jubly and Soprana with Sir Breakfast in there as well. Prepared to gamble Top Echelon, possibly at my detriment as the distance should suit. You can all tell me how wrong I am tonight I guess.

Good luck, great day up here.

Placegetter

I backed Lovely Jubly last start.
It's way "unders" today. Hit the line hard last start, so may find the 1600m ok (not sure).

However, given a 2kg turnaround in weights and my belief that SB will appreciate the 1600m more, plus 10/1 odds, Sir Breakie looks a better bet to me.

It will probably start shorter than that but should still get 6/1 or so which represents a better bet than evens for LJ.

Does LJ have a 50% chance of winning the race? Don't think so - Has about 25%-33%. Therefore fair odds are $3-$4.

Does Sir Breakie have a 9% chance of winning?
I would have thought 15% at least. So anymore than $6.66 is a good price.

Whenever I've backed Adel horses in the east, they don't win, so I'll risk Lashed.

Soprana is probably my 3rd pick.

TE might be looking for 2000m.

trifecta:
SB
LJ
Soprana




[ This Message was edited by: chief on 2002-06-10 10:51 ]