Can the systemites tell me the odds of this one continuing..

It's purely mechanical.. over 9 weeks Saturday Metro, averaging just under
2 bets per Saturday, many filters have reduced it to this..

RESULT PRICE RUNNERS
1st $7.00 12
3rd $9.00 12
dnp $7.00 11
1st $12.20 13
dnp $11.70 8
2nd $6.00 11
2nd $7.50 11
2nd $8.60 8
1st $11.50 8
2nd $6.00 9
3rd $6.50 13
1st $5.50 9
2nd $5.00 12
2nd $5.00 8
2nd $6.00 11
1st $8.00 9

As you can see 16 bets..
1sts - 5 (return $44.20)
2nds - 7
3rds - 2 (14 places returned approx. $31.00)
dnp - 2

Is it $$$$$$$$$$$$$ time....?

For the returns quoted, take the money and RUN !!!

bang on the money crash, good to see you back as well! Mate you need a LOT longer results than that to determine if its a winning system - even my 1/1 system has had 7 winners out of the last 10!

"Will it continue?"

In spite of Sir Crash's opinion of my 14 posts I will give you another opinion in an effort to share my experiences. As far as I can tell the chances of repeat ability increase with one's SR. So far your SR is 88% (place) but the problem lies in the number of tests. For this SR you would need in the region of 250 Bets before you should think about pawning your wedding ring.

Another factor to consider when using systems is whether your variables that you use have stability over time. (Maybe you follow one or two trainers but what happens when they have a lovers tiff (they're gay trainers see) and their judgement or commitment is impaired?

Don't think that because your test spans nine weeks that repeat ability is guaranteed. There is no substitute for number of bets.

__________________
"Not winning on a horse that came first is one thing.....Losing on a horse that didn't come first is something else entirely!!!"

Does anyone have any kind of table compared to win or place strike rate, then the number of bets needed before a system should be given the green light?

Hi again Sahasastar,

I don't think you can put this sort of stuff into a table as there are just too many variables that would impact on any calculation.

Re the number of bets thing. I'm sure every systems man can tell you of stories where everything runs sweet for yonks & then falls in a spectacular heap around your bruised bank. Many of these collapsed systems can be profitable if viewed over a longer time frame but few people persevere. Many of these collapsed systems are nothing but a coincidence of events ( and it is this factor that gives people such as Crash the ammunition to shoot systems down in flames). My advice is don't throw the baby out with the bathwater. Hold onto that system and see where it leads. Even if it turns to shyte there may still be a valuable bit of data to use in another system.

"It won't happen overnight, but it will happen!"

__________________
"Not winning on a horse that came first is one thing.....Losing on a horse that didn't come first is something else entirely!!!"

Sahasastar, another way to look at it is the more results under your belt the less impact the inevitable horror run will have overall. I have a place system with 1050 results so far, with a S/R (at the moment) showing 69%+ and an average divi of $1.68+, so there have been 725 hits out of 1050, now lets say that we got a run of 10 outs (it's never happened but still) so we would now have 725 hits from 1060 or 68.39%, hardly touches it does it?? The POT also is hardly touched. Whereas say there is only 20 or even 100 bets so far, a run of 10 outs would probably kill it (when place betting anyway) So in my opinion it's the long haul that is the acid test.

Theres nothing wrong with Crash's methods i.e. "doing the form" I was good at it with UK racing but never mastered it here, so I rely on other people doing the form in the form Ratings and then apply my own pet filters, so far its working for me.

I think someone posted an excel spread sheet at one point where you could enter various parameters like percentage strike rate, average div, etc, and get some guide as to whether it would likely continue.
Have no idea where to start looking though.

KV

Results for today:
3rd $1.80
1st $5.40 & $1.70
1st $1.90 & $1.00
3rd $1.50
1st $2.20 & -
2nd $1.60

Reults for Yesterday:
Unplc
3rd $2.00
1st $2.10 & $1.30
1st $3.40 & $2.20
Unplc
1st $2.40 & $1.20
1st $2.20 & -

WILL IT CONTINUE? I doubt it

Howdy Chuck, good to see you still in the game.

I think everything said here so far is basically meaningful and rather than add my own bit of meaning to the pot in a similar vein, I'd rather step out of the cement mixer [this stuff goes around and around but never sets].

A system might show a 20% profit over 5 yrs. yet 3 of those years showed a loss [a common system problem, unevenness]. Which year do we start betting in without hindsight ? Tilt.

Watching a system for a year that turns out profitable often leads to the conclusion that we are onto a winning SR. Nothing could be more uncertain. Having thrown 30 heads from fifty throws of a penny [a good SR], no one here would ever conclude we are onto a long term winning strategy by always backing heads, because we know it would be flawed logic at play. However, we will apply that same logic to punting systems. Why? Because we don't realize the same logic is involved. The odds we are looking at might be different, but the logic isn't.

Finding 'value' [often enough] is we know the crux of winning long term and value without hindsight, just can't be factored into any system. Backing the 'overs' [value] only doesn't help either, because there is no such thing as 'a' over or 'a' under. It's all subjective 'informed' opinion at it's best and a good guess at worst. Working out your own price line, and keeping at it until some accuracy is attained, is to me anyway the only way to find real overs and eventual profit. Hard work though of course and that's the rub. No 'easy' money in this game and I'm still working at it after 35 yrs. or so punting. It's been more pleasurable than profitable.

Cheers.