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  #1  
Old 10th December 2003, 02:32 PM
Bhagwan Bhagwan is offline
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Heres a plan that can be a lot of fun without the dreaded run of outs, with the odd big payer.

This is an adaption from one of Herhes posts.

1) Focus on all runners TAB Nos. 2-10 only .
(This is where the majority of winners tends to come from.)
2) Bet the first 4 you come to going down the list of TAB Nos. 2-10 which have a Wt. Rtng of 98-93 points.
3) If there are less than 4, then just back those.

We dont back No.1 because if they do ever win , they usually pay short prices.

We target 98-93 pointers because that is where some real value can be found.
(You wont find too many winners come from 92pts & less)

I have found that there will be quite a No. of races with only 1-2 selections with no huge runs of outs, so your O/L wont be as huge as you might first think.

We back them with the same amt. on each.
Bet 1$ for every $200 bank.

The possitive thing with this plan, is one can lay all their bets at once.
You only need the odd outsider getting up while the shorter priced winners keep the bank at a managable level or close to breaking even.

You could add a filter or 2 to reduce the No. of races.
E.G.Only target races that has a Fav paying $3.10+ at jump time or use newspaper pre-post so you can lay you bets all at once.

This plan has jagged the odd $45.00 payer with a string of medium priced payers.
Some days you will clean up & others will loose a bit.
The trick is to try & target the races where the fave has a reasonable chance of falling over , it`s the Favs getting up all day that will kill this plan of attack.


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  #2  
Old 10th December 2003, 11:26 PM
hermes hermes is offline
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Bhagwan, a suggestion:

You could scale this to individual races by looking for the runners above the middle rating.

In each race look for the highest rated runner and the lowest rated. Establishg the mean between these two ratings. Selections are then the first four above this mid-point.

Example:

If the top rater in the race = 100 and the lowest rated horse is rated 90, the mid point is 95. So, first four runners rated 95 or above.

Quick and easy to calculate. In effect yopu divide the field in two and seek selections in the top half where the great majority of winners are found.

Hermes
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  #3  
Old 23rd June 2005, 07:52 AM
Merriguy Merriguy is offline
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A few days ago I came across this suggestion of Bhagwan from a couple of years back --- and I believe it is worth having a look at.

I hadn't tried Hermes modification until this morning. It achieved winners in every race at Warwick Farm bar one.

Last edited by Merriguy : 23rd June 2005 at 07:57 AM.
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  #4  
Old 23rd June 2005, 01:13 PM
iamcool iamcool is offline
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Sounds an interesting idea fellas - question:

Do you ignore the favourite and select next best rated horse to include in the top four - if the fav is included in the top four rated? (Say second or third rated is also fav TAB No 2-10 etc)
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