In the attachment I've tried to demonstrate what can happen when you take a short sighted view.

The upper inset image is the performance of a Lay system over a series of 113 bets. Most people would just turn their back on a system like this, a real 'dog'.....to their long term detriment. After two years, the system went on to accumulate $80k in profits!

I'd recommend anyone contemplating a system should back test it for a couple of years, graph it, and if happy, label it "The BIG picture", then stick it on the wall near where you do your betting.

Attached Files

Don't be short sighted.docx (48.1 KB, 1138 views)

Hi RP,

I really had to laugh when I saw that. That is so spot on. That picture sums up greatly punting in general. You are right, all sorts of things can happen when you take a short term view of anything in punting.

I recall a few on this forum pointing out a flat spot in our favorites system performance when we first posted it over a year ago summarizing that it would go nowhere. The reality is that since we first posted it 422 days ago a punter with a $10,000 bank, betting proportionally would have enjoyed a 47.5% strike rate and a profit of over $55,000 using fixed prices. The bets have grown in size as the bank expands but are still very realistic in terms of betting on a fave.

It's not only short term (or small sample) evaluation of system performance, its also how most people create them. They see a short term aberration and conclude that after a few weeks of 'seeing what they want to see' type of analysis that they have found the holy grail.

The only way anyone is going to make something of this is to see their system/method/results/betting ... everything in the harsh light of long term performance.

__________________
Michal - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database;
with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate horse performance ratings for TAB meetings.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/

Too True Michel