I have searched the internet for any progression betting plans. There are several that I looked at. I then came up with the following plan over 12 bets.

1,1,2,2,2,3,3,4,5,6,7,9

A total of 45 units. A unit can be any amount from 0.50 cents an up.

Any thoughts.

Mad Gambler

My thoughts are: I think it is time people put a bit more effort into their posts. Nobody can possibly help you to the extent you are looking for with such little information.

What are you betting on?
Strike rate?
Average odds?

A staking plan is designed around these 3 points in particular. Without knowing them, it is absurd to just bet to a random staking plan because you saw something on the internet.

Please, a little more effort....

Here's the information.


I'm betting 3 horses at sat metro meetings only

There have been 9 winners from 36 bets for a strike rate of 25%

And the average divie is $4.35.

Hopes this helps. I'm sorry for leaving out the information, but i had a time out.


Mad Gambler

Hi Mad Gambler,

Couple of things to note. Firstly, 36 bets is nothing in the scheme of things, so you will be doing yourself a big disservice if you try and plan around a strike rate and ave dividend from such an insignificant sample.

Second, if your 25% strike rate does hold true for a larger sample of bets then you should be prepared for a longest losing sequence of twenty - how would your staking plan handle this number of consecutive losers?

My advice would be to play on paper until you have a sample of at least a couple of hundred bets. If you must bet then small flat stake betting is the way to go until you have more data. Until you know what you are doing a progressive staking plan is only going to get you into trouble - and will never, long term, 'magically' turn a losing method into a profitable one.

Wun

MadGambler,
I knew I read it somewhere and have found the thread with a staking plan and better detail on how to work the plan.
http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthr...3&page=1&pp=10&

It's the post further down on that thread which reads "9/4 Staking Plan" by Puntz.
I have tried this a few times and if done according to instructions set out by Puntz, it worked well.
The most important instruction I found is to not look for wild longshots but back good solid selections,win and quit for the day.

Madgambler, not trying to live up to my username here, just offering constructive critisism.Your basic plan is ok IF that S/R etc. carries on.(you are betting Maxi-divi or top fluc there I presume?) with some tuning it could be a winner.

Lets say it does, so over the next few years you will have had say 200 bets @ 1 unit, with a S/R of 25% etc, 200 bets @ 2 units with aS/R of 25% etc, say 180 bets @ 3units with a S/R of 25% etc etc etc

You see what I'm getting at the S/R and the Ave. Divi stays the same for each group in the progression, the horse you back @ 9units has no greater chance of winning than any other. it still has a 25% chance.

So in other words you may as well just back em all at level stakes (slightly higher stake)

To put my 2 bobs worth in. I do not believe in all or nothing progression systems.
You are trying to recoup all losses in a series of 12 bets. What happens if the final bet only pays $2?
I only bet fixed odds, and I use a staking system designed around what I want to return, not what I want to bet.
I only try and recoup a little bit of lost money with each win. This means I rely on more winners, but can go a lot longer losing streaks.

Also I have kept records of the last 4000 bets, 1 selection per race.
You are basing your future financial prospects on a series of 12 races.

Besides all that, your total outlay is 45 yet your last bet using your average div, will not put you in front anyway..

I would recommend that you keep on searching. Start your system dutching your 3 horses to return $100. Look for something that will last a streak of 20 losses, and don't be too aggressive. If you have something that will return a profit on level stakes, then you don't need to be aggressive. All you need, is to minimize risk and maximise profits.

All you need is to return more than 100%. If you can do that, you are in a better position than ~95% of punters.

Good luck with it all....

Three bets per Saturday,eh?
Arrange bets into Chronological order, bet 10.15, 25.
Sop at a winner. If your fist bet wins carrying your ten units, take your profits
and fold your tent for the day.
If your first bet loses bet 15 on the second selection, if that loses also.bet 25
on the third and last bet for the day.
If it wins at evens you have your money back,if better than evens you have made a profit.
If the third one loses, wait till next week, do not chase losses,If you can pick
25% winners at reasonable odds you stand a good chance of getting your nose in front.

__________________
Life is simple. People complicate it.

All is well and good with whatever method one chooses to use.
The point should be made here,even though many staking plans may not seem perfect,but get into the habit of managing the bets.

I personaly think all systems have a fair 85 % better chance !
But lose on the 25% *not* because of plans and selections, but mismanagement caused either by grief or elation.
You either lose the rent money and lose more thereafter plus what you owe.
Or you lose anyway because a fortune was won and lost it all assuming one is on a roll.

But a plan in action, if followed will limit some of this, would'nt it ?