Havin a look at the markets for South Africa v New Zealand.

Anyone rate the springboks a chance at home @ $2.89 Pinnacle?
Hard to pass on the Kiwis all the same @ $1.47 Pinnacle and Multibet. $2.03
-6.5 point 'Line' @ Pinnacle, a converted try may be the value.

Any stats to suggest Kiwis will give em a flogging OR otherwise?

Since SA came back into international competition, there's been 13 games in SA. Springboks have won only 5 of them. South Africa did win there last year, but NZ had won the previous 3. That win last year was South africa's first win against NZ in 9 tests.

I reckon South Africa will give it a good go, but possibly NZ will just get over the top of them. Not confident about picking this one though.

Well. Going just by the form in the tri-nations games (and only the trinations), looks like aus is the team to beat (although this doesn't mean we actually are, SA are since they held both home games and the pressure is on NZ and Aus now).

We were a bit better than SA, and SA were better than the kiwis. Shame the scorelines don't reflect this.

I think this will be another "everyone wins at home" year and bonus points will be the deciding factor once again. Love how they use the bonus point system, makes the super 12s a much better competition and is good for the game.

Mr J,

For someone who is generally so analytical and professional thinking in their betting, I think you're very biased when it comes to your own teams....Waratahs and Wallabies.

It just looks like I'm biased. Just that the wallabies are always underrated and 'tahs were underrated this year.

Aus were a bit better than SA 2 weeks ago, and SA were better than NZ (I watched both games). I'm talking about just the performances of those 2 games. I'm not saying aus IS the best team (I can't rate any of the 3 teams ahead of the other 2). I think all 3 teams are capable of dishing it out to each other, and am thinking it'll probally come down to bonus points again. I don't think you can even rank the teams at the moment. NZ definately isn't the dominant machine the press was hyping them up to be. SA has the advantage of being at home and was a little lucky vs Aus (aus just had a problem converting opportunities into points, SA didn't). I'm just sick of the media forgetting the wallabies every year, or at least underestimating them. It's like how they always overestimate or hype up the ABs. It's the media that is biased. I wouldn't want to be a supporter of any of the 3 teams for a home game.

Talking about the 'tahs, I was hoping they'd pick Dell up. He's starting to play rugby lately. Definately got the best backline now. Not even the canes have that sort of firepower.

Tend to agree Mr J, certainly with your even-steven assessment.

That said i wonder if SA would be worth backing to win outright at this stage given that

1. They already have two wins on the board
2. They are the current holders
3. Playing as well as the others

The following markets are available outright
NZ @ 1.80 CENTRE
SA @ 2.85 SPORTSBET
AUS @ 6.50 CENTRE

Given that Kelleher is out and Umaga in doubt for Aussie test, plus home ground advantage, the Aussie have to be the value bet @ 2.25 Centre, 2.50 NZ TAB.

I think the home team will win every game.....everyone is talking up NZ but after the lions series but the fact of the matter is that the lions were absolute RUBBISH!

Agree Chuck and whats more i bought into the hype - when will i learn!

Yep. ABs are always hyped.

I think it'd be profitable to back SA and Aus (ie fade NZ). NZ definately won't win this half the time. Ie it's reason enough to back SA just because NZ is in the comp lol.

$6.50 on Aus is very rich.

The key to futures betting is knowing when to bet. If you're going to bet, bet now. Aus will win more often than not, and if/when they do then SA & aus will lose value, since NZ can't win (well not without bonus points, but aus & sa can still get 3 wins).

Easy backing the wallabies at home. From what we've seen in SA I don't see how any team could be favoured away from home.