I had four key bets selected for Saturday 10 September 2005, below is a quick comparison of Odds available on Thursday Night via online bookmakers or TAB Sportsbet and the TAB starting price (as well as on course bookmakers best fluctuation as far as I can remember) namely:

Railings - Rosehill Race 5 - (2nd after a poor ride sitting him out the back on a day when nothing was coming from behind at Rosehill!!)

Best Thursday night odds - $2.50

TAB starting price - $2.20 ($1.10 a place)

Best on course fluctuation- $2.40 (though you had to be quick to get it)

Virage de fortune - Mooney Valley Race 5 - (Eased up on the line to win easily - Absolutely destroyed them)

Best Thursday night odds - $1.85

TAB starting price - $2.30 ($1.40 a place Incredible place value)

Best on course fluctuation- $2.20 (again speed was the key)

Lad of the Manor - Moonee Valley Race 6 (Gutsy win with a superb ride by Greg Childs - As Greg turned the corner he clearly looked over his shoulder looking for Makybe Diva knowing there was only one horse that could beat him) - Won by literally a nostril. The Valley may just have too short a straight for the great mare making her a real risk at the current $3.00 for the Cox Plate.

Best Thursday night odds - $3.75

TAB starting price - $2.90 ($1.40 a place again incredible value in a 2 horse race)

Best on course fluctuation - $3.00 (as far as I saw but I couldnt get it!!)

Paratroopers - Rosehill Race 8 (Great ride by D Beadman, sat just off the leader and was never in doubt at the 300m mark)

Best Thursday night odds - $9.00 (Can you believe this price, I took it and laughed all the way to the bank. Did the bookies forget the Golden Rose Victory of this horse. You'll notice that he has dropped from $26.00 for the Epsom Handicap to $6.00 on some quotes!! Not sure he'll run in it though. May go to the Caulfield Guinneas I suspect)

TAB starting price - $3.10 ($1.60 a place)

Best on course fluctuation -$4.80 (but briefly, $4.40 and $4.60 were gettable and screwed into $3.90 in the last 3 minutes before the race)


So what is the moral of this story. Number 1 I was pretty lucky on the day and don't claim any great skill for having selected 3 winners for the day (and would have lost all my money doing the dumb punter thing backing every race except that I put all I had on Lad of the Manor and had taken $9 for Paratroopers two days before!! I must work on that discipline thing!)

The true moral is, I believe as follows:

• Where a horse opens at $2.50 to $10.00 and you believe it has good form and is an obvious chance in the race - Take good odds at the opening of betting on Thursday Night.
• Where a horse is $10.00 or above, it is hard to tell if it will drift or shorten, perhaps best to wait and watch the market closely on Thursday, Friday if it begins to shorten GET ON.
• Where a horse is $2.50 or less (particularly in the Red) in a race with more than one chance, be patient and you will have a good chance at getting longer odds.

Obviously it is not an inflexible rule as the above examples illustrate. Railings was a $2.50 get on... You never saw that price again. But I guess his form deserved support (and I believe he will win next start in a similar race). Makybe Diva was a good example of a stay off at $2.25 Thursday night. She drifted to $2.90 on track and started $2.70 on TAB.

Lastly, pre-post betting two days out is only available on Group & Listed Races (which is all I really like to bet on as a rule if I wasn't undisciplined when drinking beer at the races!)

I will leave you with my thoughts for Wednesday's Stakes Races at NewCastle:

Race 6 - Listed Tibbie Stakes for 3YO & Up Fillies and Mares:

SHALIMAR SKY - Currently $4.20 on TAB Sportsbet.

I think there is a fair chance she will shorten because Johan's Toy the favourite is too short in my view at $2.80 and may Run in the Group 3 Cameron Handicap anyway. Shalimar Sky's last run was fantastic and looks a really big chance.

Race 7 - Group 3 Cameron Handicap

BINDING - Currently $3.80 on TAB Sportsbet and Colin Tidy's horsebet.com.au

Hard to pick the trend, but there are two other horses under $4.00 and a move will be made for something. I think Binding's form behind Red Oog is stronger and his sectionals in that race were terrific so I don't see any reason why the plunge won't be for him as twighlight falls tomorrow night. Mr Celebrity and Collate have been impressive, but their times and sectionals don't appear to stack up to Binding running on to finish less than a length from a top in-form sprinter who won the Group 1 Doomben 10,000.


Well that's it from me, Pudnik (which is my cat's name).

Good punting and remember (as I will try to) - backing on each race is a Mug's game. Pick your horses, Stick to them, Back them when you believe the odds are good and enjoy the thrill of the race.

Cheers all.

I posted about this elsewhere. I got the $9 too. I could have got $10 on Thursday afternoon but I deliberated a bit too long (I was so shocked at the price I thought I must have missed something). I thought it should have been about $2.50, so I've got no idea what the bookies were thinking. Not complaining though.

Shalimar Sky was a great little winner and her form deserved better odds against Johan's Toy.


Binding looks to have been dissappointing. I didn't get to see the race, can anyone report to me on his run? Would appreciate it.


Cheers,


Pudnik da cat

Spring Stakes at Newcastle:

Manton is the lay of the day. Permissive will beat him home if you examine their two 1400m performances on the same track same day at Randwick on 3 September 2005.

Take the currently available $3.00 for Permissive.

Thunderbird Hill (if he runs as he is nominated in the Gloaming Stakes on Saturday) represents great value at currently available $10.00.


Permissive to win with a saver on Thunderbird Hill.

The others don't appear to really be up to this field.

Cheers

The Pud