Profit Scenarios for an avg punter using the system

Weekly Figures

Gross Profit -$7,000 $35 $70 $150
Subscription -$33 -$33 -$33 -$33
Net profit -$7,033 $2 $37 $117
Profit/hr -$233 6.6c $1.20 $3.90

Worst case scenario = $7,033 loss for week.
Best case = $117 profit or $3.90/hr.


Profit scenario for Bert
(weekly figures)
No of subcribers 20 40 60 80
Fees/subscriber $33 $33 $33 $33
Total Revenue $660 $1320 $1980 $2640

Hmm... I wonder who benefits most?
The avg punter spending 30 hrs per week trying to make $100 or Bert who stands to make $2000 or more if he gets 60 people slaving away at the system?




[ This Message was edited by: lumbarsua on 2002-07-11 11:29 ]

[ This Message was edited by: quapi on 2002-07-11 11:46 ]

But lumbarsua he is not doing it for the money - he only wants to help out the little people by giving them $5 profit a day! All his money is going back into the "industry" - sponsoring races, world domination, that sort of thing. Can't wait to see the Berts Best Melbourne Cup - all the jockeys will have to wear colours matching his website - should be a real visual treat! :grin:

Hmm - just read another of his replies - apparantly he already has "hundreds" of subscribers or people on trials. Say 200 @ $33/week = $6600/week.

Hmm sounds good - who wants to sign up to "Bort's Best" (any Simpson's fans out there???) - $10 profit per day with guaranteed no losing days (unless, of course you mistake a $3.70 price on Unitab site with 20 seconds to jump as somehow being under $4 - but then thats your fault for not using the AFTER jump price to make your decision). Only $30 per week!!! Sign up NOW!

People need to consider what they actually get for their $33 per week:

# Tips with a poor strike rate.
# High risk/low reward staking plan.
# Access to a website which looks like it was built by a 10yo.
# Lots of positive comments from Bert.

If people are so desparate for an extra $5 per day here's a few ideas:

# Pack your lunch and take it to work
# Don't buy newspapers or magazines - they are plenty of free ones on buses/trains
# Sell your car and take public transport everywhere or carpool
# Make the kids drink water for breakfast rather than fruit juice.
# Swap items such as used magazines/clothes with your neighbours
# Buy cask wine instead of bottles
# Buy cases of beer instead of six packs or stubbies
# Drink water rather than wine at restaurants and forget to take your wallet so someone else has to pay
# Collect aluminium cans and plastic bottles and send them to SA for a refund.

Hope that helps!!

Given that we now know what staking plan he uses and that his selections have a poor strike rate, my question to Bert is -

What is it actually that people are paying for?

Anyone could select horses equally as good or better than Bert and just use the staking plan themselves.

The only edge Bert could possible have is high quality selections and that was proven wrong yesterday - 1 winner from about 38 races.

My worst day of all time was 15 losers in a row, next worst is about 10. Bert exceeded that on the 1st day of trials. 17 losers in a row, followed by one winner, then a whole lot of more losers afterwards.

I could pick horses at random and still achieve a higher strike rate.

Well in the interests of the people desperate for $5 a day I have decided to give away "Borts Best" system for free.

Selection Criteria
As close to jump as possible look at the home TAB prices (ie for NSW races use NSW TAB price) for runners 1 to 5 in the race (only bet on races covered by Sky TV). Your selection is the lowest saddlecloth with a price between $4 and $15. If none fit this criteria then No Selection. Only 1 selection per race (eg. if Horse 1 is $6.60 and Horse 2 is 4.50 then your selection is 1)

Staking
As per Berts system we will use a targeted betting with profit of $5. Add $5 to your total bets for day and then divide that by the (Div rounded down -1) to get your bet (round the bet up). eg. If bets today are $10 and the div on next horse is 6.50 then the next bet would be (10+5) / (6-1) = $3

Todays Results So Far

MR1 - 5 (8.9) - $1 bet, lost (-1)
SR1 - No bet
MR2 - 4 (8.4) - $1 bet, lost (-2)
BR1 - 3 (6.3) - $2 bet, Won@6.0 (+7)

Now go to the pub and celibrate or if you are greedy you can start again.
SR2 - 1 (7.2) - $1 bet, lost (-1)
AR1 - no bet
MR3 - 1 (4.6) - $2 bet, lost (-3)
BR2 - 2 (4.7) - $3 bet, won@4.1 (+6.3)

Again go to pub or start again
SR3 - 2 (4.4) - $2 bet, won @4.4 (+6.8)

So far we are up $20.10.

PS. I WOULD NOT RECOMMEND USING THIS IN LONG RUN - Just intended to show that you can put any old selection criteria into Berts system and get his results without wasting you money buying his selections.



[ This Message was edited by: becareful on 2002-07-11 13:31 ]

Another imposter bites the dust.
Who's next?

Bort's whole system is the staking plan.
The tips are almost irrelevant - as long you jag a winner paying over $4 inside of about 25 bets you make a small profit.

Now that we know the staking plan - why would anyone pay money for the tips which hardly matter?

The worst thing about the whole thing is he claimed to have cracked the secret to racing by looking at trainer's habits. Quite clearly, this is not the case. If his strike rate was any good you would use a better staking plan - one capable of producing profits of $100+ per day.

How did the "experts" at Today Tonight overlook this? Well the most obvious answer is none of the people working there understand horse racing or staking plans.