Just some thoughts when you are handicapping the Juvenile:
Past winners of the Juvenile:
Key prep races: Champagne, Norfolk and Keeneland Futurity

Stalkers have a big advantage

Average number of starts: 5
Look for horses coming off a career best Beyer

Absolutely correct POST. Also. the Eastern coast Juvenile colts look alot stronger than most of the Western colts, but I happen to like STEVIEWONDERBOY from California right now. FIRST SAMURAI (the "toppy") is getting mature and seems to have lost his greenness. His last race was his best.

Here's the main rub on this one: Jerry Bailey decided to stay in Saratoga for one mount on Haskell Day in New Jersey (monmouth park) where he rode eventual winner ROMAN RULER in the Million dollar race. First Samurai was in a non-descript allowance that day and Bailey had never ridden the two year old. Obviously, trainer Frank Brothers had said, "this one is special Jerry. Wanna ride him?" JD had to catch a private plane to a non scheduled airport(due to a plane crash on the closer airport), and then catch a helicopter to Monmouth.


What mount that day do you think meant more to Bailey. Roman Ruler($1 mill) or First Samurai($50K)? Says alot!
Still, after all that, I like STEVIEWONDERBOY and hope for a nice price.

Hope there is room in the boat Saratoga I too do like Stevie in this sport and believe that last race comment in DRF is accurate but misleading. Stevie was not ridden out that day when he earned an 86 Beyer, he was almost walking at the end. Gomez had him completely throttled down. That race, to me was much better than paper indicates.

No Post, I meant the musician! LOL! I had him in his last but never saw the race so thanks for the info, and as a matter of fact I'll have to watch that race. I saw the charts and know he ran a big one. The horse that finshed second that day(The Pharoah) ran pretty bad in his next but that's alright. the horse(WHATASONG) that beat STEVIE early on was considered to be FAR the best in California and probably would have been 2nd fav in this race, but tragically broke down in a morning GALLOP. Trainer Bob Baffert was very upset the whole weekend and was the vision of sadness winning the feature race that weekend.Stevie ran very well against this horse and seems to have improved dramatically, so ALL ABOARD the STEVIEWONDERBOAT!

hey saratoga can u tell me a little bit about Lost in the Fog

i was just watching wire to wire on espn and they showed lost in the fog doing some trackwork....that horse is so ****en small...it looks like a shetland pony. the trackwork jockey looked bigger than the horse lol and its won 10 from 10

For 1st
No11 Private Now - Decently bred by 1st season sire Broken Vow (Unbridled) out of a Deputy Minister mare and was a $180K yearling purchase. Has won 3 from 4 in short career including last start at Group 2 level 9*4.3 lengths. Form reference out of that race does seem strong with Union Course beaten 14 lengths 4th and the start prior was only 7 lengths behind Henny Hughes. This gives Private Now a 2-3 length margin on form over First Samurai the pre-post favorite here. Definitely worth including and could be the boilover horse and shapes as good value on that basis.

For 2nd
No9 First Samurai - Superbly bred by Giant's Causeway out of a Dixieland Band mare and so far has won 4 from 4 in short career. Winner at group 1 level last 2 starts including last start at this track when produced a commanding performance to win 3.7*9.7 lengths defeating Henny Hughes and Superfly. Form through those 2 does make this a very strong contender and hard to stop if it is in the same frame of mind today.

For 3rd
No6 Dawn Of War - Well bred by Cateinus (Storm Cat) out of a Chimes Band mare and is a full brother to former good juvenile Lisa's Cat. Winner 3 of 6 and has finished 2nd at other 3 starts in short career. Last start won at Group 1 level when defeating Catcominatcha and Stream Cat 3.5*3.3 lengths at Keeneland. Form references out of that race do seem strong with Stream Cat a Group 3 winner the start prior. In top form now and holds chances here on that basis.

Best Value Lay
No10 Henny Hughes - Well bred by Hennessy out of a Meadowlake mare and is a half brother to 6 other sprint winners. Won first 3 career starts including a Group 2 at Saratoga before last 2 starts finishing 2nd to the very smart First Samurai both times at Group 1 level. Well placed here but seems to be well below First Samurai on exposed form and should finish behind it again here but capable of getting on the board for 2nd or 3rd.

Final Betting Assessment - This shapes as a good quality betting race value wise and have decided to lean the way of Private Now who has exposed form references suggesting it can defeat the hot pot favorite First Samurai who must be included for 2nd as the exposed class runner in the field. Private Now is 8/1 pre-post and that is good value and is more likely a true 13/4 chance. First Samurai at 8/5 pre-post does seem short and is probably a true 7/2 chance so is under the odds. Dawn Of War makes for good value at 20/1 pre-post as the likely third here. For those interested in laying the value lay in this race shapes as Henny Hughes who is the 5/1 2nd favorite pre-post but could easily finish off the board.

Here is my assessment of the Sprint (Lost In The Fog's race)

For 1st
No3 Silver Train - Well bred by Old Trieste (A.P Indy) out of a Cormorant mare and last start annexed a Group 2 3yo sprint at this track 5*2.7 lengths defeating High Fly 2nd. Form references out of that race are very strong for this with High Fly only 7 lengths off the smart Giacomo and also a prior winner of different races over Bandini and Noble Causeway at Group 2 and Group 1 level respectively. Definite high hopes on that form.

For 2nd
No7 Lost In The Fog - Decently bred by Lost Soldier out of a Dr Carter mare. Undefeated in short career so far and this is the acid test for it. Tuned up for this with a 7 lengths romp at the start of October and back on 27 August won at Group 1 3yo level in The Kings Bishop Stakes at Saratoga 4.7*0.7 lengths in what looks a good form reference for this. The query is the form around Afleet Alex and it does suggest that this one will have its work cut out to beat Silver Train who looks to have its measure through Afleet Alex form references and at the short quote does not appear value here.

For 3rd
No10 Imperialism - Well bred by Langfuhr out of a Pass The Tab mare. High class multiple Group 1 placed 4yo colt who's best form is over the routes but on 21 August annexed the Group 2 Pat O'Brien Breeders Cup handicap over 7 furlongs at Del Mar. Taste Of Paradise finished 3rd that day and then won at Group 1 franking the form out of the race. Imperialism was held up in the rear that day and came from off the pace with a high class closing par to win. Back to 6 furlongs today is a query but right in this on a repeat of that run.

Final Betting Assessment - Another good value event if we have it correct. Decided to go with the pre-post 2nd favorite on top here Silver Train. Is 8/1 pre-post but should be a lot shorter than that but with the 2nd pick Lost In The Fog having such a boom on it there is good value created. At stated have decided to include the boom youngster Lost In The Fog for 2nd. For 3rd we will include Imperialism who also hold major claims in this event. For those interested in laying there is real no sure fire good lays in this event.

thankyou empower

QLD, LOST in THe FOg is a NORTHERN California stabled horse that has ducked all the best 3 year olds all year. He is definitely a quality animal and very, very fast but he has not really faced anyone of much import. His race at Saratoga this summer was very good but he was SO TIRED at the end that Russel Baze(jockey) even made numerous mentions to how he was done if the race was any further (7 f? i think). The saratoga strip was very deep that day and really tiring but he did win big. I can't knock him (10 for 10) too much, but he still has to prove his greatness to me. I kinda like ELUVISIVE JAZZ and BATTLE WON.

Look for a stalker or closer in the 6 furlong sprint. Speed balls don't usually win this one and look for 20.4 seconds(1/4 m.), 43.4(1/2), 1:08:1(6 furlongs) kinda fractions. hard to hold on there. I have to get down to business on Form study though. I'm doing all my homework so far from seeing WAY TOO MANY horse races this year!!! LOL!!! Godd thing and bad thing. I wish BLUE COLLAR JACK was in here! LOL!

On the Juvenile Front; I have to agree with EMPOWERed. I have sorta leaned towards PRIVATE VOW. Steve Asmussen is my favorite trainer and is simply the best with 2 year olds. I know that Stevie boy has something up his sleeve and that this is his best 2yo (better than HE"S GOT GRIT) and he won't waste horses in entries very often. Asmussen knows he has a legitimate shot of winning with this one and so does Jerry Bailey who rides both Private Vow and First Samurai, but made an admitted difficult decision to ride Samurai. STEVIEWONDERBOY/PRIVATE VOW exacta box as of right now.