I've said in the past that I don't know my form from my ar... elbow. But I am a great believer in market forces implying that the shorter the odds the more likely a win. However, as many on this forum have quite rightly pointed out, this (nearly) always leads to low value. MichaelG and others have convinced me that value may exist in the exotics. How to marry these points into a system??

Well, not being a form man and wishing to ride on the back of the "market", I have tried to compare combined win odds of a pair of runners with their Quinella price as late a possible before the start. Using Excel I select upto 12 pairs (not a boxed group) which I dutch bet based on quinella prices. I look for at least 5/1 overall odds and the process takes about 20secs to complete.

This method seems to work for all types of races but has produced some very good days and some very bad. I would like to reduce/eliminate the very bad. Does anyone out there have any suggestions as to how I can eliminate or filter the dud races?

I guess I am looking for logical reasons why a quinella in a race should not reflect the win odds of the horses/dogs involved. Remember I am using knee-jerk, last-minute, calcs and would be looking for suggestions in the area of total pool size, Quinella pool size, field size, etc. as I would prefer the information was already on (currently) the WA Tab screen.

I know this is like asking how long is a piece of string, and I know these issues have been discussed ad nauseum before, but not in the context of Win Odds vs Quinella Odds. Your suggestions don't even need to be specific instructions, just ideas on this comparison. Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated.