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  #1  
Old 31st October 2005, 08:28 PM
Empower Empower is offline
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Default A Detailed Melbourne Cup Analysis

Runner Assessments

No1 Makybe Diva - Makybe Diva comes into this years Melbourne Cup as a dual winner after winning the event in 2003 and 2004 and this years seeks to make history by winning it for a 3rd time in a row. This campaign she has been in career best form after last start annexing The Cox Plate at Group 1 WFA over 2040m 10 days ago. She has faced a slightly different preparation this time around to past years and it does seem this year it is not so much an afterthought but secondary to her Cox Plate win but Freedman is confident the horse is doing well enough since her Cox Plate win to be given a crack making it 3 on end. There is no doubting she is of world class standard and will start favorite for this years Cup on the basis of public love of her. Putting all that aside it must be said she does come into the race with a major chance obviously but she will have a few things against her in her quest to win for a 3rd time in a row. Two of those major queries will be her chances at the weights against Eye Popper who ran an absolute blinder in The Caulfield Cup proving he has handled his travel to Australia well. Eye Popper defeated Makybe Diva in The Tenno Sho carrying 1.5kg more and today gets in 4kg below her. In The Tenno Sho Eye Popper rated 6kg better than Makybe Diva and gets into this 4kg below Makybe Diva giving him a 10kg pull over her at the weights for this race. Freedman has publicly stated he feels she was 6 lengths below her best that day which still puts her 1kg below Eye Popper for that run but I am prepared to take the chance that she was actually going OK and was not that far below herself. Look all in all she has her chance here but it is hard to see her making it 3 on end as a mare carrying topweight with that exposed form reference on show and the prospect of a hard track so we are prepared to look for value elsewhere chasing the winner.

No2 Vinnie Roe - Vinnie Roe comes into this event having his 3rd crack for the astute mentor Dermot Weld and last year finished 1.3 lengths 2nd to Makybe Diva and in 2002 finished 3.9 lengths 4th to Media Puzzle. Last year finishing behind Makybe Diva on a rain effected track which suits the horse it rated 0.5kgs in front of Makybe Diva at the weights as it carried 2.5kg more for the defeat. This year it comes in as equal topweight meaning that it is actually rating 0.5kg in front of Makybe Diva for this years race. Another factor we must look at assessing his chances is how well he has been going in Europe this year. He has had 4 starts in Europe this flat season coming into this race and encountered a few niggling problems. This year he failed to annex The Irish St Leger which he has won in 2002 and 2004 when previously coming here as the lead up race for him. He does seem to have rated 3-4 lengths below his 2004 level in that race which presents a question mark. 2 starts earlier in The Gold Cup at York he was beaten 5 lengths by Distinction at level weights and Distinction gets into this 1.5k below Vinnie Roe giving Distinction a 9kg pull on him here at the weights today. The Gold Cup was run on a good to firm track which is not that bad a surface which is a very strong pointer to Distinctions chances here. Vinnie Roe is a grand campaigned but may have his work cut out at the weights here on that basis.

No3 Distinction - Distinction comes here this year having his 2nd shot at The MC after last year finishing 7 lengths 6th to Makybe Diva on a rain effected track. Connections publicly stated last year that they thought he would improve a lot for the effort what ever he did before the race and come back in 2005 a much stronger horse and this has been proven by his flat form in the 2005 European flat season which has included a 0.1l 2nd to Westerner in The Gold Cup (a proven strong form race for this event) where Vinnie Roe finished 5 lengths adrift in 3rd franking the form out of the race. Westerner 2 starts later went on to finish 2nd in The Prix de l'arc de Triomphe beaten 2 lengths by champion European 3yo Hurricane Run further franking the form out of Gold Cup. Distinction is by Danehill out of a Nureyev mare, handles firm ground, is proven over the trip, comes here in top class form, has seen it and done it before and has been set for this race from the outset and on that basis is a major chance. Also interesting to note Kinane takes the mount this year after the Beadman debacle last year.

No4 Greys Inn - Greys Inn comes into this event having its 3rd Australian start after last start finishing 7 lengths 10 of 14 in The Cox Plate. Being by Zabeel out of a Christmas Tree mare Great Verdict he is yet to ever race over 3200m but on breeding one would suggest he will have no problem seeing out the 3200m and has proven by his Dubai and Hong Kong efforts that he is most effective on dry tracks. In The Cox Plate he seemed to lose his place at a vital stage and never recover so I am prepared to dismiss that run. His natural racing style that has seen him produce his best efforts on the International stage so far in Dubai and Hong Kong has seen him come from off the pace so it is likely he will go back here which will definitely suit on this big open track. Greys Inn through his Hong Kong 2nd to Vengeance Of Rain on a form reference through Phoenix Reach rates 1.7 lengths on Mummify at level weights and Mummify rates 2.8 lengths better than Railings on their Caulfield Cup runs at the weights giving Greys Inn a 4.5 lengths pull on Railings and giving it 2.5kgs here still comes out 4.5kgs better than Railings at the weights through that run. Greys Inn on that basis sneaks into this race with some chance.

No5 Franklins Gardens - Franklins Gardens is another of The European raiders. He comes into this after failing in The Irish St Leger last start and before that was beaten 9 lengths by Distinction in The Gold Cup. He is badly weighted for this and on that form should have stayed home. Other form references from earlier in The European flat season still put him 6 lengths below Distinction when he seemed to be at his best. Can't win here.

No6 Eye Popper - Eye Popper was out noted preferred betting option in The Caulfield Cup and has firmed significantly in MC markets after its huge effort that day which saw it race 5 and 6 deep for the entire trip and eventually finish 2nd to Railings beaten a short neck. It was an absolutely huge run to say the least and with any sort of decent ride should have won the race. He comes into this 2nd up and a lot fitter for that effort and will improve immensely on the run and definitely appreciate the step to 3200m. As stated above he comes into this and meets Makybe Diva better off than their Tenno Sho weights and looks to rate 10kg infront of her here for that run. On that basis Eye Popper is in this up to his ears and will be hard to beat given the right ride by Fujita who retains the mount.

No7 Railings - Railings is The Caulfield Cup winner and comes into this off that proven form reference but that day he was gifted with one of the better runs in transit and finished it off like a horse that was totally suited to the 2400m. After copping a penalty for the CC win he now has 54kgs and is not as well weighted as his Caulfield Cup effort. Being by Zabeel he is bred to get the trip and there is every chance he will but for mine I can't get the past the fact it meets Eye Popper worse off at the weights after a softer run in transit and Eye Popper is subject to much more improvement than this one, so yes it is one of the better local chances but will struggle against the best of the internationals and as stated it still comes out 4.5kgs below Greys Inn as well here on a proven Phoenix Reach / Mummify form reference.

No8 Xcellent - I will start by saying totally forget he even went around in The Cox Plate. It was a shocking ride and can be dismissed as any sort of form reference for this. To ascertain the true chance of this horse we must look once again to its New Zealand form knowing that it only has a chance if the track remains on the better side of a dead rating which at the time of writing is likely. We need to look at its last start in New Zealand and through that run it rates equal with Distinctly Secret and in the 2003 MC Distinctly Secret rated 6.5kg below Makybe Diva and on that basis Xcellent rates 2.5kg below Makybe Diva here as it gets 4kgs from it at the weights. Even if Xcellent who on breeding looks as though it may be 1-1.5 lengths better over 3200m than 2400m then it still only rates equal with Makybe Diva and as stated we have already found form references giving others a good pull on the Diva at the weights so Xcellent is an outside place chance but it is hard to see it winning here.

Continued in next post..........

Last edited by Moderator 3 : 31st October 2005 at 10:41 PM.
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  #2  
Old 31st October 2005, 08:29 PM
Empower Empower is offline
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Default Part 2

No9 Kindjhal - This is a former European runner bought by Australian connections with this race in mind. It has had time to settle here and 2 starts ago finished 6.3 lengths 4th to Railings in The Metropolitian and then Railings came out and won The CC. It does get a 2.5kg turn around at the weights on Railings for that run and on European form will be better suited to the 3200m but even on that basis it is hard to see it improving the other 4 lengths required to even finish infront of Railings so it is hard to see it winning here on weights and measures.

No10 Hugs Dancer - Hugs Dancer finished 5.6l 5th in this race last year carrying only 3kgs below Makybe Diva. This year it gets into the race carrying 6kg less which means it is 2 lengths better off at the weights than last year. It comes in here in a similar vain of form as last year so it is not likely to improve any further for that effort which still puts it 3.6l behind Makybe Diva this year at the weights no realistically you have to be prepared to dismiss its chance here.

No11 Demerger - Demerger comes into this as the raining Adelaide Cup winner and connections have set it for this race since that day. Last start it finished 4.8 lengths 10th in The Caulfield Cup and did finish the race off nicely at thhe same but it needs to improve significantly again here on that run to threaten. He rates naturally 5kg below Strausbourg on that run through Envoy who finished 3rd in The AC and Strausbourg gets 1kg from him here. Another interesting factor here is a pointer towards Strausbourg's chances when assessing it later. When Makybe Diva and Demerger met (both over an unsuitable 2000m trip at this track) earlier this preparation Makybe Diva beat it by 3.1 lengths rating 6kg better than it and Strausbourg rated 5kg on it through the envoy form reference putting Strausborg only 1kg below Makybe and it gets in here 7.5kg below Makybe Diva giving Strausbourg a 6.5kg pull on Makybe Diva at the weights through that form reference. Definitely worth noting for later on when looking at Strausbourg.

No12 Dizelle - Seemed to improve greatly on Saturday when 4th in the Saab. Before that was totally out of form and not in the reckoning but she is by Zabeel and the Saab run was top class from a MC point of view. She rates 1kg below Strausbourg for the run and gets in here carrying 1kg more than Strausbourg so for mine is still 2kg below Strausbourg for this on exposed form.

No13 Lachlan River - Winner of The Queensland Derby back in June and that is generally considered a sound form reference for future MC chances but this may be one year too early for it. Raced on Saturday in The Mackinnon over 2000m at WFA and produced one of the best Cups trials on the day and looked like it is every bit searching for the 3200m of The MC the way it finished the race off on Saturday. It rated 3kg below Lad Of The Manor on that run and the interesting this is that Lad Of The Manor only rated 3.5kg below Makybe Diva when Makybe Diva won The Cox Plate. Lachlan River finished The Mackinnon off like it was looking for 3200m so I am prepared to say it can improve 2-3 lengths on that run, let say 3.5kg to be conservative which puts it only 3kg below Makybe Diva through the Cox Plate effort and Lachlan River gets into this carrying 6.5kg below Makybe Diva and therefore in my books is capable of rating 3.5kg better than Makybe Diva at the weights in The Melbourne Cup. On that basis it is a huge chance if it can reproduce the Mackinnon effort from Saturday.

No14 Portland Singa - Portland Singa comes into this as the winner of The Brisbane Cup this year over the winter carnival and is in the astute hands of Neville McBurney who produces good stayers who peak on the day. She ran 4.4 lengths 8th in The Caulfield Cup and on that effort really does have to be considered as out of her depth here even with improvement over the 3200m.

No15 Vouvray - Has been out of form this preperation and finished 6.4 lengths 9th in The Mackinnon on Saturday and it is hard to see it improving enough on that run to figure here. Also did nothing the start prior in The CC. Merely making up the numbers here.

No16 On A Jeune - Raced in this event last year and finished 9.9 lengths 11. Won the Geelong Cup last start as a lead in here but on that effort through Men At Work rates 6.5kg below Railings naturally and only gets 3kg from it here. Railings has also improved considerably since The Metropolitian win that form reference is taken off so prepared to dismiss On A Jeune's chances here.

No17 Umbula - 2 starts ago was 5.6l 5th to Leica A Falcon with Hugs Dancer in 3rd. Last start produced an improved effort to win at Moonee Valley over 2500m in a Group 2 but form references through Kindjhal 3rd that day suggest the run was well short of anything produced by Railings so very hard to have it here on exposed form.

No18 Bazelle - Last start was 0.1 lengths 2nd to Umbula 2500m M Valley Group 2. As stated above form references out of that race do not look strong enough for this and will struggle here. Benifits on the breeding side of the equation being by Zabeel and should have no problem seeing out the 3200m of The MC but not strong enough to win this edition.

No19 Envoy - Comes into this merely making up the numbers after 3 starts ago being beaten by Xcellent in New Zealand, 2 back was beaten by On A Jeune at Geelong and last start was down the track behind Strausbourg. No reason to see it improving here to any level to make it any sort of hope in this.

No20 Rizon - Well bred by Zabeel and annexed The Winning Edge Presentation stakes at Caulfield last year over Grey Song and Zazzman before finishing 2nd in the M Valley Gold Cup behind Another Warrior. Was spelled then and didn't run in The MC last year. Has taken a different path through the spring this year and has been well below his best so far. Last 3 have seen him be beaten by Strausbourg, On A Jeune and Leica Falcon consistently enough to suggest he will need to improve considerably to have any chance of figuring here.

Continued in next post........

Last edited by Moderator 3 : 31st October 2005 at 10:41 PM.
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Old 31st October 2005, 08:31 PM
Empower Empower is offline
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Default Part 3

No21 Strausbourg - Hadn't won for close to 3 years before Saturday when it annexed the Saab Quality in fine style. Some will call it a weak form race but there is certain form references today which can not be ignored that suggest different. You can straight off see a couple of different form references through the likes of Rizon and Confectioner that put Strausbourg in this with a big chance. At the weights it can be said he is between 6.5-7kgs infront of Makybe Diva on the Saab win if it can reproduce that effort on Tuesday. Also has the polish of Bart Cummings and he has a knack of getting one or two home on the first Tuesday in November!

No22 Leica Falcon - Leica Falcon comes into this after producing a huge CC run when 1.4 lengths 5th to Railings that day and people have been spooking it as the best Melbourne Cup trial to come out of the race since and they aren't far off being right except people do not really understand the merit associated to Eye Poppers run and only very experienced video analysts will. Sure, Leica Falcon's CC run was enormous but he was suited by the pace, struck some trouble and admittedly did reel off sensational last 600 sectionals was entitled to under the scope of things. One thing is certain that it has been weighted to win this and with 50kgs actually comes into this rating approximately 9kgs better than Makybe Diva at the weights here through a couple of different form references, namely Rizon for one.

No23 Mr Celebrity - Before The Saab Quality on Saturday people were talking of him as being a major chance in The Melbourne Cup and a lot of people would have walked away after Saturday disappointed with the effort in only finishing 3rd to Strausbourg. For mine it was a very encouraging MC trial as he was not touched in the closing stages and finished off like a real stayer now looking for 3200m. It is my thought that he was sent around on Saturday with the view to simply give him a good look a Flemington with connections hopeful that if he didn't win he would still be higher enough in the order of entry to gain a start in The MC which he has after a few other dropped out. To only be beaten 1.5 lengths when carrying 3kgs more than Strausbourg he rated a true 1kg better than Strausbourg and now hew comes in here carrying 1kg less than Strausbourg which gives him a 2kg advantage at the weights on Strausbourg and we have already assessed that Strausbourg get in 6.5-7kgs better at the weights than Makybe Diva and this puts Mr Celebrity approx 9kgs in front of Makybe Diva at the weights on that form reference for this race and therefore on a par with Leica Falcon.

No24 Kamsky - Another Bart Cummings runner and he comes into this race after finishing 4.4 lengths 6th to Strausbourg last start and the thing to note is that he did make up good ground in the last 600m clocking the best last 600m sectional in what shaped as a sit and sprint affair so their was good merit in the run and it suggested he is yelling out for 3200m which he gets here. He is bred to get the 3200m being by Generous who is a son of noted distance producer Caerleon. He gets in with only 48.5kgs so he is very well weighted and could sneak a place as he did finish off well over the 2500m in The Saab and drops 2kg against Strausbourg and was making up good ground on him in the stretch.

Continued in next post.......

Last edited by Moderator 3 : 31st October 2005 at 10:40 PM.
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Old 31st October 2005, 08:32 PM
Empower Empower is offline
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Default Part 4 - Final Assessment

Final Assessment and Predicted Finishing Order and Assessed Odds of Top 8
The first thing I am going to state here is that there is 6 horses with a chance of winning this years edition of the Melbourne Cup and a lot of it will come down to which horse gets the best run in transit as on form analysis and at the weights there is 2-3 lengths between the top 6 chances here. I honestly believe the Japanese raider Eye Popper is the one to beat here and on his Caulfield Cup form has proven that his Japanese finish in front of Makybe Diva in The Tenno Sho was no fluke. The run he produced in The Caulfield Cup was absolutely enormous and on that basis I have decided to make him the top pick here. It is very hard to split the next 3 so in the end I have decided to lean towards Mr Celebrity for 2nd and he rates basically equal with the 3rd and 4th picks on form but despite the wide barrier has the ability go forward early without too much pressure and get across and go to sleep with one of the runs of the race under a slow tempo and this will suit it down to the ground. For 3rd I have decided to include Leica Falcon who shapes as a big winning chance, the query is that he will get back and have to come with one long run and sustain it against a slow tempo which may not suit but at the weights he is still right in this and will run a huge race. The big query runner is Greys Inn the South African visitor who is by Zabeel and having its 3rd start here and this race will suit it down to the ground under the conditions so it has to be included for 4th. Strausbourg also has claims and could easily pull of an upset for Bart Cummings but it is more likely it is a big place chance and has to be considered for 5th best. One thing is that it will be totally suited by the pace scenario as it will get up on pace under a slow tempo. Somewhat a forgotten runner is the European raider Distinction and it could easily win this race especially if it repeats its Gold Cup run when it finished 2nd to Westerner who then went on to finish a close 2nd in The Arc this year, Distinction is a much superior horse to the one we saw here last year. Before Saturday I would not have ever considered the next horse a chance but Kamsky was impressive in The Saab and it shapes as though it is screaming out for this trip and has every chance of sneaking into a place, especially with the 48.5kg impost it has to carry. The other runner capable of figuring here is Lachlan River who put in a very good trial when 3rd in The Mackinnon on Saturday and looked like a great MC trial.
  1. Eye Popper 11/2 = 15.38% of market
  2. Mr Celebrity 13/2 = 13.33% of market
  3. Leica Falcon 15/2 = 11.76% of market
  4. Greys Inn 9/1 = 10.00% of market
  5. Strausbourg 12/1 = 7.69% of market
  6. Distinction 12/1 = 7.69% of market
  7. Kamsky 20/1 = 4.76% of market
  8. Lachlan River 20/1 = 4.76% of market

Represents a total of 75.37% of the market.

Win Betting - For those interested in win betting there is going to be great value here no matter which way you look at it for the simple fact Makybe Diva is going to start a relatively short priced favorite and she can't win. Realistically the value around Eye Popper was in The Caulfield Cup when we quoted here as being the best value bet and to get on him for the place when 40/1 to 50/1 was being bet for the win. Still all in all it is slightly above the odds here and with it being 7/1 fixed with IAS you can still get value. Mr Celebrity is big value and at 15.00 fixed is good value but is much more likely to start longer on The TAB. Leica Falcon is slightly under the odds on both the TAB and with bookmakers. For mine if I was inclined to win bet in this race I would be backing both Eye Popper, Mr Celebrity and Greys Inn on a 5/3/2 ratio and hoping that Leica Falcon does not figure. This is where the value lies. So if you were outlaying $100 you would have $50 on Eye Popper to win, $30 on Mr Celebrity to win and $20 on Greys Inn to win. But as we have said there is 6 real live chances in the race so win betting for mine is not a preferred option here.
Place Betting - For those looking to simply have a win or place bet on this race this is the way you want to be going as is so often the case in these big field races with so much mug money on the table a place betting provides very good value. I am going to suggest you concentrate on 2 of our top 4 picks here for the place and back them both as they are such good value. The 2 horses in question are Mr Celebrity and Greys Inn. I would suggest backing these two to place under a 3/2 ratio so if you are going to outlay $100 have $60 to place on Mr Celebrity and $40 to place on Greys Inn. I am very confident one of these two will finish on the top 3 and with the place dividends on these runners likely to be around $7.00 for Mr Celebrity and $12.00 for Greys Inn you could walk away either with $420 if Mr Celebrity runs a place or with $480 if Greys Inn runs a place and if they both happen to place you will walk away with around $900 which is a bonus. This is the scenario we think is the best option for those needing to win and place bet.
Trifecta Betting - THIS IS WHERE THE BIG VALUE LIES IN THIS RACE. As stated previously I seriously believe Makybe Diva can not win this race and I also feel that Vinnie Roe one of the other popular elects can not win and I also believe Railings one of the other popular elects can not win or place in this race so that just creates huge value around the trifecta as so many people will include 1 or 2 of these in their trifecta and cut themselves out of the picture. My suggestion is to concentrate on the trifecta as it is always easier to get. Include the top 6 runners I have included for 1st as I stated earlier there is 6 horses who could seriously win this race so there is no point only including 4 of them and getting beaten by one of the other 2. Include the top 8 horses for 2nd and 3rd. This means you will have 6 for 1st, 8 for 2nd and 8 for 3rd and under this scenario it is a total of 252 combinations which means a half unit bet will cost you $126 and a full unit bet will cost you $252.
Lay Betting - Plain and simple the value lay here is Makybe Diva, lay her with confidence. You can even lay her in the place market with confidence!!!
Good luck and happy punting on the day!!!!!
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Old 31st October 2005, 09:08 PM
Raw Instinct Raw Instinct is offline
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Interesting read there however I for one will not be leaving out Railings can't see any reason why I should he has the breeding he has the runs on the board through the Caulfield Cup say whatever you like about Eye Popper I to think it can win obviously but the horse was not 5-6 wide it was 3 and 4 wide and I haven't seen the sectionals for the race but I know they hit the line hard which leads me to believe that they didn't go that hard up front which gives even more merrit to Railings and Leica Falcon. Now on the Caulfield Cup runs Railings and Leica Falcon meet at the same weight differential again and you would have to think that Leica Falcon will be out the back and I can see Railings landing about midfield this means he is going to have to hit the line harder than him to beat him and I doubt he will get there any harder than he did in the Caulfield Cup.

I wouldn't discount the fact that Eye Popper could end up 3 wide again tomorrow he has done it in Japan before and could do it here. As far as comparing horses from different countries it is hard some travel better than others whose to say Phoenix Reach was in top shape when beaten by Mummify noone knows I have a feeling it sat on an extremely fast pace in that race which I have heard more than once and Mummify just outsayed them coming from about midfield.

I personally have 4 horses that I think can win this race they are Railings, Eye Popper, Distinction (very underrated here) and Leica Falcon and after that I thought that Lachlan River and Hugs Dancer were good to add to the tri. Out of the 4 I think can win I am dropping Leica Falcon to the 2nd line which may bite me in the ass I'll take my chance.

As for Greys Inn was a big fan of it but I haven't really liked either of its runs here in Australia I am questioning as to whether the horse has adapted to our conditions. Another thing that worried me a bit was I beleive that a horse by the name of Russian Pearl got pretty close to it in the QE II I might be wrong I am only going off my memory it may have actually have been in the Derby that it got close to Vengance of Rain either way that would tie in ok with that form from the QE II. Going on that I know that Russian Pearl was a promising horse here and it may have really improved in Hong Kong but it was beaten by Tolouse Lautrec in the QLD Derby it certainly hasn't done a thing to frank that form and nor has Devastating for that matter.
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Old 31st October 2005, 10:12 PM
Imagele Imagele is offline
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Might be out of my depth here in what seems illustrious company but I am sticking to a principle that I have adhered to over a long period.
I will make my win selection for the Cup from those horses that raced on Saturday Oct.29.
Mr Celebrity - Lachlan River for 1st.
Railings, Leica Falcon, Eye Popper, Dizelle, Bazelle for the placings.
My selections are also biassed towards the old system of including placegetters from the Caulfield Cup, Mckinnon Stakes and placegetters but not the winner of the Moonee Valley Cup.
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Old 31st October 2005, 11:37 PM
punta punta is offline
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intersting read indeed, alot of effort and research went into that

i read in the telegraph today that pro punters such as bartholomeow and flower advise to stay clear of internationals at all costs

and then on this forum alot of ppl are tipping one or even a few of the internationals to win or place

im so confused!!!!! lol

best to stay away from the race altogether
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Old 1st November 2005, 12:49 AM
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Forget all that rubbish about Eye Popper being well weighted. Those runs in Japan were well below Makybe Diva's best. She's back on her home turf now.

The reason she gives Eye Popper weight is simple - she's won 6 group one races; Eye Popper hasn't won any.

Eye Popper is hopelessly weighted coming in on 54kgs - compare Railings, who is a lightly raced improver and winner of two group 1 races, and meeting Eye Popper on level terms tomorrow.

People are going mad potting Makybe Diva because of the good track and the weight. She's runs just fine on a good track, having won both Sydney and Melbourne Cups on good-rated surfaces. As for the weight, she's earned it.

The other chances are Leica Falcon (who ran the fastest final sectional in the Caulfield Cup), Railings, Mr Celebrity (who is bred to stay all day and certainly has beaten the handicapper - easily the best-weighted runner) and Dizelle (who will hit her peak tomorrow).

My numbers: 22 from 7, 23, 1 and 12.
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Old 1st November 2005, 01:02 AM
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Nice summary but you'll go broke taking form lines on horse's beaten 6 lengths then trying to say "this horse was 6 lengths below best, trainer said so, which means it really rated this". Throw that formline out the window. Eye Popper rates what he rates, the Diva rates what she rates. At the top of her game and he at the top of his, 4kgs won't put him near her. Your assessment of him at 11/2 and her at presumably greater than 20/1 is wrong. Sorry, it just is.

You're right though about Mr Celebrity, he well and truly has beaten the handicapper, and you make good points on other horses.

I am still undecided as to which way I am going but I have been tipping Dizelle all along but now with the prospect of a ROCK HARD track I am going cold on her. Now she'll probably win.

Don't know what to do. Am going to re-study the race now.

Maybe I'm just looking for ways to beat the Diva when maybe I shouldn't be. Maybe she just wins after all.
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Old 1st November 2005, 05:44 AM
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The Diva whole prep. was for the Cox Plate, not the Cup. The horse has pulled up well but that doesn't mean she is going to go out and win the Cup with 58kg. She peaked for the Cox end will be very vulnerable in the Cup.

Eye Popper gets his big chance at his pet distance with Distinction to me, the other big O/S danger.

John Hawkes is burning for a Cup and Railing is cherry ripe for this, but I wouldn't leave Demerger out as a serious contender after a perfect prep. She will be a lot tougher than in her easy Adelaide Cup win last May. Portland Singer has the right weight and the right Jocky.... heck, just take a Boxed field tri. in this race.

Last edited by crash : 1st November 2005 at 05:52 AM.
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