Smartgambler
Pro-Punter

Go Back   OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums > Public Forums > Horse Racing
User Name
Password
Register FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark all topics as read

To advertise on these
forums, e-mail us.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #1  
Old 11th November 2005, 09:40 PM
Svenvlad Svenvlad is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 277
Default Doomben Races Saturday....

Well, back at Doomben again tomorrow. Doesn't look an easy day but the competitiveness of the fields should give us some decent betting...

Race 1 - Charmana Star, Plachutta, Inthemix
The 2yos up first, not a great start. Thought the race was probably out of 3. Plachutta, Charmana Star and Inthemix. I've settled on Charmana Star mainly because Byrne has accepted the ride. I would imagine that he had the option of Inthemix aswell as one or two others, and chose this one. At the better price, she'll do me fine. Plachutta was a good run last time behind Winaura, after racing greenly and can go close here. Inthemix was an encouraging run on debut and can definately go on with it here, from the good alley.

Race 2 - Cool Scene*, Strawberry Malt, Socialist
Quality 3yo race here, very even bunch. There seems to be a good deal of speed up front with 3 or 4 of them liking to lead. For that reason, i think that class may prevail and Cool Scene will go very close. Even with the 58kgs, he proved himself a very good galloper last time in and from the good draw, i think he'll go very close. Strawberry Malt ran a great race behind Vitruvian last time in (in very good time) and can surely figure here with Colless on board. Socialist will definately enjoy the hot speed here, and is a place chance at longer odds.

Race 3 - Minoa, La Bella Mer, Bellargo
No idea. La Bella Mer has been winning well in races that havent really suited, but they were mid-week class. I wouldn't want to be taking the short odds about her and for that reason i've settled on Minoa. He has been really costly lately, but you seem assured of a good run for your money with him, so that'll do me. La Bella Mer, if she can keep producing those finishing bursts, will be there at the business end. Bellargo in the easier race isn't without a chance either.

Race 4 - Succeeding, Ultimate Command, Duomo
No speed here, on paper. However, the 1600m is a nightmare starting position, so that might see some speed come into it from out wide. That being said though, i'm not a fan of the race. Maybe Succeeding from Ultimate Command and Duomo, but its not a great field i didn't think.

Race 5 - Love and Money*, Persuades, Miss Glamour Puss
Good field of mares lining up here. Thought there was a lot of speed here, and for that reason i've settled on Love and Money who will camp just off them and sprint once she sees daylight in the straight. Byrne will give her a perfect ride from the 1 alley too. Persuades was a good win last time and can go well here too, its just that the speed might not be suitable here - a few of the others might fight her for the front spot. Miss Glamour Puss has been running well in the midweeks, and deserves her chance here (did win a 2yo race in town though).

Race 6 - Minassi, Fleet Baron, Happier
Another pretty good race. Horrible to see what happened to Minassi last time, stuck 3 deep all the way . I think, with the 3 gate tomorrow, he can go very close to beating them here. Fleet Baron has been very costly in his short career...going out favourite on many occasions and missing out, but i'll give him his chance here with Byrne on board. That looks a good quinella. Happier is a Sydney horse with some good form who can fire fresh too.

Race 7 - Amex, Champion Star, Gator
Amex is hardly the most reliable horse in the world, but while fresh i think he can go close to the money here. There seems to be significant speed here, and for that reason, if his mind is all there, he'll do me. Champion Star has been dealt 2 shocking draws first 2 runs up, but he has definite ability and can't be left out. Gator is another Hawkes horse with Sydney form and can go close with the claim - the alley is a touch awkward though.

Race 8 - Testify, King of Spain, Man Of Illusion
Lets hope we're in front. Testify ran nice time with a big weight last time, but the 10 alley is a worry. I still think he's good enough to get over it, but the price may not be flash. I didn't see his run, but King of Spain appeared to be given every chance of running them down last time (with the hot speed) and couldn't do it, so i'm willing to put Testify above him. Man Of Illusion has ability but has drawn the carpark and will need luck of the highest order.

Best tomorrow would be Love and Money, Cool Scene with a good rough chance to Ultimate Command.

Good luck all

Sven

Last edited by Svenvlad : 11th November 2005 at 09:43 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 11th November 2005, 10:36 PM
maverick1993 maverick1993 is offline
Banned
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Queensland
Posts: 3,635
Default

Hi Sven..looks a good card tomorrow...i'll be at the track for the first time in awhile ..looking forward to seeing some of these youngsters in the flesh..

Race 1.
This is a race where i'll be having a good look at them in the mounting yard..
especially at Vita Nova and Eureka Again ..will be seeing if theres any early money around for these also...love this time of the year when all the babies come out...MM is only round the corner,,,
Liked the way Inthemix finished off last start ..would like to see Plachutta over alittle more ground seemed to battle on well last start. (intersting to see how the Kbenjars go)
Will be looking at the first starters ..and it might pay to follow the money trail..

Race 2.
Strawbery Malt impressed me last prep..Colless must of had the choice between this and La Montagna ....has 5kgs on the toppy Cool Scene who i thinks the main danger,,,,,
My Son Day has been working the house down of late and theres a bit of talk around about Bold Reason (seen this horse race and he can fly)....
Strawbery Malt will give a good sight..always races prominant ...respect Cool Scene and have My SOn Day and Bold reason in your Multis..
alot will depend on how these horses resuming look in the yard,,

Race 3.
Tough race i thought...alot of these have had alot of chances and seem to just battle on taking turns in winning...La Bella Mer is the new kid on the block and the one likely to take the next step...wasnt totally convinced in her last 50m last start..but she's still learning and improving..
won't take anything short but she's the one to back,,
thought Bellargo who was unlucky last start has a big show..and if you like roughies Serpentine might be a blowout..Grahams all the way up here to ride him..and his win was full of merit over this distance in the Lismore Cup..
i'll be on LaBellaMar if the price is right,. but will have something at the odds e/w on Serpentine for fun....

Race 4.
Succeeding needs alot of luck and Svens right when he says there doesnt seem to be much speed here so hopefully he takes a more forward position...I like a roughie here..Parameter who i think is the likely leader here...this is shorter than his best but if he dictates up front and grinds away he might pinch it..Parameter is in new hands now and his last run over the shorter was fantastic and this isnt an overly hard race for him..
Like Succeeding and Parameter..
dangers Radar Oreilly and Mining Silver..

Race 5.
Hard to seperate Persudaes , Canadian Shuffle and Love and Money,
But Persuades done the job for us last time and gets the nod..Palmer is in hot form ,,good 2nd up record,,
he'll do me..

Race 6.
Big push for Happier around the traps..personally i think Fleet Baron might be the way to go..will get back so the barrier isnt a worry...heaps of speed here which will suit..
Dont know what to make of Golden Fox who really on past form should kill them..even with the weight,,if anyone can get this horse over the line in first its Colless,,and Black Suit has been going great guns...hasnt had the best of luck of late but still fights it out ...
I'll be looking at Golden Fox and Fleet Baron.....
Black Suit and Minassi for the Multis..

Race 7.
An intersting runner here is Gordo ..this horse has ability and Hawkesy wouldn't be wasting his time with him unless he's showing them something..i'm prepared to have something e/w on him even thow its been along time between drinks....
Prosecution is racing well ..thought Spry stuffed up last time and he'll be trying that extra harder to make amends..
Champion Star agin has the shocking draw but might be able to follow Viscay star over and get the sit ..maybe..

Race 8.
Pablo Diablo...huge run last start..hopefully gets alittle more luck this time...nothing really in this race...
Testify can run but i'm banking on Pablo Diablo stalking Testify who should lead ..and being to strog in the end..

Looking at some value tomorrow...fingers crossed,,
Best win bet Persuades and Pablo Diablo..
Best e/w Parameter, Gordo and Golden Fox..

Good Luck all
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 11th November 2005, 11:08 PM
Svenvlad Svenvlad is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 277
Default

Interesting you mention Parameter Mav, cause i seriously considered him too after looking at the speed. He'll be right up on the pace and with no weight on his back, the 15s in the paper look ok (he'll blow to double that tomorrow).

The 2nd-up record put me off a bit though...

Good luck

Sven
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 12th November 2005, 12:57 AM
Silver_and_sand Silver_and_sand is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 335
Thumbs up Hi guys. Thanks for sharing your analysis.

For what it's worth (which is probably not very much), here's my picks for Doomben:

R2 King Hunter
R3 Rampant Lion & La Bella Mer
R4 Nick 'N' John
R5 Persuades & Love and Money
R8 Testify

Good luck!!!
__________________
...time held me green and dying, though I sang in my chains like the sea. - Dylan Thomas
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 12th November 2005, 09:47 AM
Horse Whisperer Horse Whisperer is offline
Banned
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 1,381
Default

Im only gunna have a couple of bets today
race 4 radar oreilly
race 7 matey
race 8 testify & bro
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 12th November 2005, 10:23 AM
Svenvlad Svenvlad is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 277
Default

Few replacements -

Race 1 - Eureka Again for Charmana Star
Race 4 - Parameter for Duomo
Race 6 - Pride of Paris

Good luck

Sven
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 12th November 2005, 02:27 PM
Svenvlad Svenvlad is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 277
Default

Great effort with Parameter Mav,

Curious to know if that was you bringing the TAB quote down so much in the last 5 mins :'(

Sven
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 12th November 2005, 03:53 PM
mad mad is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 898
Default

Was looking at Matey in the next, loves the track and this distance. Bowditch on board, drawn off the track however. E/W me thinks, hoping for the win however - as you do!
__________________
I like Bing Lee.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 12th November 2005, 03:55 PM
mad mad is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 898
Default

Can win from midfield, would be the way to go me hopes!
__________________
I like Bing Lee.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 13th November 2005, 01:07 PM
maverick1993 maverick1993 is offline
Banned
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Queensland
Posts: 3,635
Default

A great day yesterday alot of value around ..

RAce 1.
Hard race here where there was no real push for anything..i wasnt a total fan of Plachutta but she had most of the money riding on her..no real talk about Eureka Again even though she didnt look to bad in the yard..
good race to watch this one....i dont see any stars in the making here..

Race 2.
Classy filly is Strawbery Malt..ridden a treat...Socialist the one to follow aswell..made a heap of ground..
good start to the day..

Race 3.
Neve a fan of the race..La bella Mar was always to skinny...had an e/w on Serpentine for some fun....still running i think..

Race 4.
Its great when everything works out exactly to plan...Para controlled and did very well...had a big go here...happy times

Race 5.
Persudaes ran a good 2nd...can't win them all...the winner was very impressive i thought..

Race 6.
Golden Fox with the weight was shorter than i expected..mainly the Colless factor im guessing...had an e/w but didnt give much in the straight .. something not right with the horse ...

Race 7.
Gordo flew at the end for 3rd...a good result for me ..the tri and 1st4 were also handy ...Gordo the one to follow here for sure,.

Race 8.
Pablo Diablo who i was quite confident on was just to wide and to far back to figure...thought the winnner had it given to him...very dissapointed here ..

2 nice winners today..a good place divie and some good trifecta and 1st4 results..
well done Sven with Love and Money ..i had the top 3 fairly evenly rated in that race which was probly always going to be hard for me to pick the right one..i usually stay away from these races..

isnt Parameter a fantasic looking horse...not even fully wound up yet..Thexton does a good job ...
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Forum Jump



All times are GMT +10. The time now is 09:47 PM.


Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.0.3
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
©2008 OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved . ACN 091184655