I'm wondering if any of you have experience with DAS prepost prices i.e. the fixed odds they release early. Specifically I'm looking at Saturday metro races since this is the area that I will be punting on.

I did a trial run last Saturday and noticed that some prices were shorter and some prices were longer. Significantly, I missed out on a big blowout from $12 to $18. What I'd like to know is, how do pre post prices generally compare with their divi plus/top fluctuation options.

I rang them up asking if they had historical data on prices. They referred me to ozeform.com which has divi plus/top fluc prices but unfortunately not prepost. I rung them again and they said they wouldn't give me access to prepost prices. So, I'm wondering if you guys have any advice on whether I'm at a big disadvantage, or whether it roughly evens out over the long term.

I'll never back favs, normally the roughies.

[ This Message was edited by: dngu047 on 2002-07-22 10:06 ]

[ This Message was edited by: dngu047 on 2002-07-22 10:06 ]

If you are chasing the roughies the Divi. Plus would be the way to go because it gives you the best price of all state TABs put together plus 5% on top.Stats show that the TAB horses $5.10+ range pay better than bookies 70% of the time.
If you are looking at the newspaper pre-post prices, its not a bad rule to knock 1-1.5 points off the price shown in the paper.

You will see how close the final figure is ,along with the odd overs in there, check out some past form guides & you will see what I mean.

If you are chasing the $5.00 a less runners you will find the book makers fixed price the stronger option, longterm.

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Cheers.

Bhagwan, I'm not using newspaper pre-post prices. I'm using Darwin All Sports pre post prices which are released 10:30am Saturday morning. Ok let's say pre-post prices open and I like a few horses at $10 or more.

Would it be better to take the divi plus right then and there (10:30am) or be guaranteed the fixed odds. On the one hand I don't want to be gambling with divi plus because the price could be anything at start time. On the other hand I'd hate to miss a big blowout from $10 to say $20 or more. I'm wondering which approach is more profitable for those who have had experience with Darwin All Sports pre post prices.

I use a combination of TAB and bookie.

If you bet with DAS on longshots, you are throwing away the tote mug money which is yours for the taking. Similarly if you are backing favs you are sacrificing the better odds available through DAS (IAS).

I know that's not really your question, Don.
But can't answer it because I don't bet that way.
If I were you, I'd take divi plus UNLESS they are the sort of horses that late money will come for...EG Top Stables or Riders.
Frequently these horses go around at less than their true price because punters see Gai Waterhouse horse at 12/1 and will back it late into say 8/1.
If your selections are just random baseds on statistics etc then I'd go divi plus.

:wink:

[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-07-22 13:39 ]

Equine Investor - no offence taken! I am actually working on trying to include some shorter priced selections into my system (in the $4-$8 range) to try to boost the strike rate and give a bit more stability to the system. As you say the problem with backing longshots is that you can have longer runs of outs which means my system is profitable but a bit unstable (eg. $4000 profit one week, $2000 loss the next) - which puts you on a bit of an emotional rollercoaster!

I agree with your point about betting a percentage of your REMAINING bank - so if you start with a bank of $1000 then your first bet would be $10 (assuming 1%) - once bank falls below $950 then drop to $9 bet, etc. This is the way I work so bet size goes up after a few wins but drops back down if you have a run of losses. I also recommend that if you are winning and growing your bank then take some of your winnings out each week until you have "repaid" yourself the initial investment - that way from then on you are only betting with other peoples money!

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"Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson

As you have noticed the DAS fixed prepost prices can work both ways for you.

My suggestion is to compare the price on offer with the early TAB prices for the three TAB's. I particulary take note of the price on the state TAB for the race you are looking at. I also take note what the prepost price was in the Sat morning paper as well.

If you are in any doubt as to whether to take the fixed price I would suggest holding off until closer to the race or take the Divi Plus option if you need to get your bets on early.

From my time with DAS (a few yrs) - if betting longshots (say >$10) I think that Divi Plus will provide the better return over time as there is often one TAB that will have a longer price than the others.

There are exceptions to this - but they are often obvious.

Example 1 - Sat week ago I had a win on Friendly Seas which the Divi Plus price was around $18. I got $26 by taking the prepost fixed odds. The TAB's at the time I made the bet were showing around the $15-$20 mark - but the Sat paper showed $13 prepost. Based on this I took the punt that the price was more likely to shorten than blow out (especially since C Brown was the jockey and we know how desperate he was to ride winners). Good value at $26 I thought.

Example 2 - a few weeks back Little Dozer got nosed out of a win in Melb. It's Divi Plus price was around $11 as they jumped. I took the $21 fixed prepost price when I saw all the TAB's early prices were around $12 and the Sat paper prepost price was $13. Just missed on a huge collect. In fact I could have sworn that I had it !

In terms of shorter price horses sometimes you can get an early fixed price of say $6 for one that starts at say $4. Much more difficult here and I would tend not to take the fixed price unless it is favourite and TAB's are showing say around $3 mark. Tough judgement call though. Sometimes I take half my stake at the fixed price decide later on near race time what to do with the rest.

PS Having subscribed to some of PPD's systems, one thing I have noted is that often the early TAB prices for their selections are way short and do blow toward jump time. The fixed prepost prices for these are often not good value at all.