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  #1  
Old 9th June 2007, 04:00 PM
Mad Gambler Mad Gambler is offline
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Default Tipsters

Is it possible to win in the long term say over a year following your favourite tipster. I followed mine on Friday at Swan Hill and gout 4 winnners from the 8 races and today at Moonee valley and Eagle Farm I got 3 winners.

So for the 2 days

7 winners

Outlay $24.00
Return $33.60

Profit $9.60.

It's early days, but I will contiue to bet and see what happens in 12 months.

mad gambler
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  #2  
Old 10th June 2007, 01:17 AM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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Mad, sorry to be a partypooper here but it appears from extensive research done by Bhagwan and Wes, that the top pick of the prevailing tipster (i.e. Radio Tab picks = one and the same) that an overall loss of something like 15% is expected...... so be very, very careful! however, if backed at best tote/sp. (metro) it appears that can be reduced considerably, and if Betfair is utilised (don't have any experience there) then maybe break even is possible!
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  #3  
Old 10th June 2007, 05:13 AM
Bhagwan Bhagwan is offline
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They all seem to have their good & bad runs.

I feel that its important to only bet them if paying at least $3.00-9.00
If not, target the 2nd selection $3.00-9.00
If not , target the 3rd selection.$3.00-9.00
Either that or leave the race alone, if the top selection does not qualify within this price range.

If one cosistantly takes prices less than $3.00, one is in for a hiding to nothing long term.

The $9.00 cut off , tells us that it is in the market with some chance of doing something & saves a number of wasted bets.
One will see from time to time ,that the first selection is paying $15.00+ & most times they tend to fall over & beaten by their 2nd selection paying around the $5.00-6.00 mark.

A staking plan that can work on them, is this mild ladder progression that goes up in lots of 5
e.g. 11111 22222 33333 44444 55555 ect. up to 12 12 12 12 12 for a run of 60 bets = $390
Keep going up the ladder win, lose or draw until 2 units in profit.
Then start again.
If one does get to 60 one will find that a number of winners would have been struck, so losing the total $390 is unlikely.
One has to have the fortitude to go to the last dollar with these sort of plans & have a back up of the same amount to do it all again.

If one is interested in only targeting one venue per day.
One could set this up so that the progression goes from race No.1 to race No.1 the next day & so on, until that column for that race No. shows any profit. Then start again for that race No.
Do the same for race Nos. 2-8
That way it can be a set & forget type progression which could be good for busy punters.
This is something Partypooper touched on.
I feel one would have a stronger chance of success doing it this way long term than say level stakes.

Cheers.
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Cheers.
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  #4  
Old 11th June 2007, 03:36 PM
travelrock travelrock is offline
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following tipsters would be no better than betting by colours. those guys lodge their tips thursday night and arent reliable at all.
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  #5  
Old 11th June 2007, 05:23 PM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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One extra feature that may sway things is only bet the tipsters pick IF it also the late mail
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  #6  
Old 11th June 2007, 05:45 PM
wesmip1 wesmip1 is offline
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Quote:


I feel that its important
toonly bet them if paying at least $3.00-9.00

Ifnot, target the2nd selection $3.00-9.00

Ifnot, target the3rd selection.$3.00-9.00

Either that or leave the race alone,ifthe top selection does not qualify within this price range.


Top Radio Tip with above criteria shows a loss of 18%.
That is over 15688 races.

2nd Radio tip in the same price range shows a 15% loss.
This is over 19543 races.

3rd Radio tip in the same price range shows a 16% loss.
This is over 17257 races.

Random selections per race produce the same % loss.

BUT ...

Top Radio Tip under $3.00 ($2.90 of worse) shows a loss of 14%.
That is over 9602 races.

2nd Radio tip under $3.00 ($2.90 of worse) shows a 7% loss.
This is over 2984 races.

3rd Radio tip under $3.00 ($2.90 of worse) shows a 2% loss.
This is over 1201 races.

All horses under $3.00 ($2.90 of worse) shows a 12% loss.
This is over 14716 races.


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  #7  
Old 11th June 2007, 05:46 PM
wesmip1 wesmip1 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by partypooper
One extra feature that may sway things is only bet the tipsters pick IF it also the late mail

Top tip and Late mail shows a loss of 17%
This is over 2710 races.
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  #8  
Old 11th June 2007, 08:39 PM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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WEs, thanks for that, I was thinking 1st OR 2nd pick iF it's late mail, and I forgot to say I bet PLACE only at best tote. but sounds like it wouldn't make alot of diff?
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  #9  
Old 11th June 2007, 08:44 PM
wesmip1 wesmip1 is offline
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PP,

The results for place were loss of 10% for radio tip 1 + late mail and loss of 13% for radio tip 2 and late mail.

Thanks.
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  #10  
Old 11th June 2007, 09:20 PM
travelrock travelrock is offline
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just do ratings. over 95% of punters dont do their own ratings, so that in itself will create opportunities.

following tipsters is a waste of time
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